TSLA did a nice jump upward in the past 15 minutes. Looking for an explanation here. It's pushing 196 at present. Volume is moderate to low, about 3,000-4,000 trades/min. Shorts covering on recall, perhaps?
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From that article:
"Our six-hour drive route took us 235 miles from Monterey, California, south to Santa Barbara, largely along the scenic coastal Route 1." (EDIT: Route 1 or PCH is a 55mph road, but large sections are closer to 30-35mph)
240 miles/6hrs = 40mph. Now they did jump on to 101 for a bit, but the more I read the other first drive reviews, the more it looks like GM selected a low speed route to maximize range/efficiency and give a good first impression.
They used 58.7kWh and averaged 4.1miles/kWh or 245Wh/mile. Impressive that the usable battery capacity is near 60kWh, but hard to make anything out of efficiency numbers given the low speeds.
davecolene0606
Member
Good info, wonder if the Gigafactory machine concept has better economics than small scattered ones?
Fire Away!
Well, I do not agree that Tesla is jumping out with silk fabric and rope. It is pessimism at extreme.
Tesla didn't just rely on some demand estimate, It asked people to reserve with $1000 deposit upfront. 400K reservation is not an estimate, but a customer commitment with refund option anytime. Doesn't people standing in line for hours to put in deposit look commitment to you? Tesla derisked demand uncertainty with this move, and all that is left is timely execution.
If you truly want to estimate demand, let me throw one: just double the current reservations, and you have 800K M3 demand/year at steady state. Well, my estimate is probably worth what you are paying for it, zero. Clearly, Tesla is playing safe too by increasing manufacturing capacity in stages.
MitchJi referenced the lidar field in the above post.
LeddarTech | Mastering LiDAR Sensor Technology already claims $50 cost for their existing lidar sensor and a vastly improved one for around $100 in their next version.
DrGuest
Member
"Chevrolet provided airfare, lodging, and meals to enable High Gear Media to bring you this first-person report."
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I predict it will take at least $5k discounts for GM to sell 30k Bolts in 2017.
2017 Volts already have a $5k dealer discount here in Los Angeles. Dealer discount, Factory cash back or equivalent subsidized lease.
On a separate point.
Bolt is in a different class than Model 3.
About three classes downmarket but at the same price or at a $2500 premium.
Actual transaction prices will have to go way down to actually move the metal.
When you goto dealer check 37.5k bolt
suddenly you found a same car chevy sonic starting at 15k
then a much better malibu only 20K a chevy SUV only 24K a buick enclave only 35K
What will you choose
Bolt competes with Prius because the Bolt gets the carpool sticker in California and the Prius doesn't (non plug-in versions), which is a really big deal.
Eligible Vehicles - Single Occupant Carpool Lane Use Stickers
Range while driving at speeds between 40 and 60 mph is not real.
It appears that the Bolt battery is larger than 60 kWh, it apparently has 60 kWh usable capacity, which means that after assuming 5% anti-bricking reserve its nominal capacity is actually 63kWh. The article has a picture of the dash display showing 58.7 kWh used over the drive of 240.2 miles
I think Chevy bolt is a competitor of Nissan leaf instead of Model 3.
It's a small car, it's not visually appealing, and the brand name "GM" is less sexier than Tesla. It's unlikely people will drop their Model 3 order and go with Bolt. And how safe the car and the battery pack is, is yet to be seen.
And I really doubt that GM can make a profit from selling Bolt, given the cost of the big battery and low volume.
Anyway, It's good that GM now have a full electric car that can compete with Nissan Leaf.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I think the main issue is that anyone can build a GF, but who can produce packs at one using current cell technology for under $133 (extremely conservative estimate) per kWh pack cost ($190 - 30% for GF reduction).
I can't wait to walk into one of them, with a big smile on, and ask to test drive the Bolt to see what their reaction is.
Fair enough. I didn't say they were going to make any money on them
. Either way, it should steal most new Leaf sales, and other 80-100 mile new EV sales, as those vehicles are similar price. Plus it will probably get lots of Prius buyers in CA, just for carpool stickers alone. The Volt is another one that puzzles me. It probably should be outselling the Prius (50 miles electric range + similar gas MPG, and better driving), but is nowhere close in terms of sales.Well there you have your squeeze. Almost a two dollar increase in the last 45 minutes.
Let's see if there's life left in the recall tomorrow. Obviously, this is not looking like a big deal so far. My guess is that some brokerages with 0 shares available to short (like Fidelity) are doing some recalls and other brokerages such as IB are not. This offers died-in-the-wool shorts an option of changing brokerages in order to maintain a short position, but many will not do so.
Hmm, wool shorts... that strikes me as an uncomfortable situation to be in.
We are among the first 15,000 plus reservations for two M3's, one of which we could buy now without saddling my 40 year younger wife with much debt. I would really like an MX and we may buy one if TSLA goes up substantially within a year or so. Social security says I have 8.7 years *statistically* to live which I don't expect and certainly don't count on. In the worst outcome my wife should keep at least one of the M3s forever as a collector's car; she'll be rich. Imagine the Pebble Beach concours d'excellence of 2050, "a pristine 2017 Tesla M3 75D scarlet red, with air suspension, autopilot, and a hand soldered signature by Elon Musk in an inaccessible part of the chassis!" (They will learn to advertise eventually.)
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