Connecting the dots . . .
When Elon said that 3Q16 might be Tesla's best quarter yet, there was ambiguity about whether he was referring to delivery numbers or financials. From the Q3 delivery numbers, we know now that he was talking about financials, because there was no question that the previous delivery numbers would be annihilated. So, if he felt that Q3 financials might be best ever, would he put the kibosh on discounting a week before the end of the quarter if he was unsure whether Telsa would reach profitabllity in Q3? Would he remove the non-gaap accounting if TSLA was going to be non-gaap profitable in Q3 but not gaap profitable in Q3? Would there have been 5500 vehicles in transit at end of Q3 with a note in delivery numbers release that vehicles aren't counted as sold until all paperwork is completed perfectly? To each of these questions, I see the answer as "no". Thus, I am assuming Telsa has profitability in Q3.
So, when do you let the cat out of the bag if Tesla is profitable in Q3? It's been done on delivery numbers day back in 2013. It could be done any day now via a tweet from Elon that basically says "Preliminary computations suggest that Tesla has achieved profitability in Q3", or the numbers can be released at the Q3 ER. Each has their advantages and tells us something about both the merger vote possibilities and the cap raise possibilities. If the merger vote is scheduled before the 3Q ER and Elon thinks he has the vote in the bag, then he might hold off on the profitability info until the Q3 ER. If Q3 was not quite profitable, then he would definitely not say anything until after the SCTY vote, but I don't think this is the case. The advantage of releasing the profitability info after the vote is that if TSLA SP sags after the vote, which is entirely possible, revealing Q3 profitability will bring it back rather quickly and help remove criticism of the merger.
For clues about profitability, look at timing of the vote and cap raise. If both take place after the 3Q16 ER, then I think that's a great sign that profitability is there. If the vote is scheduled before the Q3 ER, then there's the likelihood of Elon letting Q3 profitability out of the bag through a tweet ahead of the vote if he feels there's any question of it passing. We can indeed get clues about profitability, likelihood of SCTY merger success, and likelihood of capital raise success by using the scheduling of these events to read the tea leaves.