Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[stealthology]

Disclaimer: WAG. Could be possible this is accumulation time for a chunk of smart money, with analysts to come in with a wave up upgrades at some relatively soon, unknown point.

I'm really curious how a SCTY approval vote would affect the stock price in the near term.

 

[MitchJi]

Disclaimer: WAG. Could be possible this is accumulation time for smart money, with analysts to come in with a wave up upgrades at some unknown point..

I'm really curious how a SCTY approval vote would affect the stock price in the near term.

Hopefully you will be able to make a better informed decision after tonight's event and after the November 1 event.

 

[SBenson]

Disclaimer: WAG. Could be possible this is accumulation time for a chunk of smart money, with analysts to come in with a wave up upgrades at some relatively soon, unknown point.

I'm really curious how a SCTY approval vote would affect the stock price in the near term.

I see SCTY approval as negative (but maybe not colossal). The people who voted no will either sell-out or trim.

There is no upside to this. It's not like people are dying to buy TSLA because of the merger. If anything any evidence points the other way.

 

[SBenson]

To provide some context:

Model X
First reveal - Feb 2012
Second reveal - Sep 2015
Stable volume production - Q2/Q3 2016

Powerwall
First reveal - Apr 30, 2015
Second reveal - Oct 28, 2016
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

Model 3
First reveal - Mar 31, 2016
Second reveal - ?? unknown ??
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

Solar Roof
First reveal - Oct 28, 2016
Second reveal - ?? unknown ??
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

It will be a few years by the time we see any $ impact from all this roof hype. Although, I'm optimistic on Powewall/Powerpack 2.0 front. Hopefully volume production will start soon there.

 

[3Victoria]

The potential of the merged company is likely to be greater than them separately.

 

[larmor]

Hopefully you will be able to make a better informed decision after tonight's event and after the November 1 event.

Regarding tonights event and other products announced, some times the focus is not what the short term market wants, but what consumers need, for example, model X production reveal started with a slideshow on safety and explanation how cars are tested for crash worthiness, not the FWDs, acceleration-speed, climate, etc.

 

[dennis]

Losing touch isnt hard - Elon didnt even know that Teslas were being discounted, even though every man and his dog seemed to be talking about it.

If you carefully read Elon's memo on discounting and listen to his words, I think you will find that he and "every man and his dog" were talking about two different discounts.

Elon was focused on the issue of two different customers buying the exact same car and getting two different prices. This came about in Q3 because a small number of salespeople were incenting customers to purchase by offering normally paid for options for free. Thus a customer could get a better price the exact same configuration because of their ability to negotiate, a part of the dealer car buying process that is anathema to Elon.

Every man and his dog were talking about the larger discounts on inventory cars that were available in Q3. By policy (which Elon knows about) they are discounted using a formula that is based on miles and age. There is also an additional incentive which I am told is $1000. What happened in Q3 was that to move the pre AP 2.0 cars that additional incentive was set at $7000 or $7500, can't remember which. And it was applied to all inventory cars, not just ones with demo miles. That was what all the forum discussion was about, and what the shorts latched onto.

Bottom line - there was a lot of online discussion about the institutionalized discounts on inventory cars, and Elon knew about it. There was little discussion about one-off discounts done by individual salespeople because it was not widespread, and Elon did not know about it until he read the reddit post.

If anyone has info that is counter to what I just wrote I am really interested in hearing it.

 

[tander]

I see SCTY approval as negative (but maybe not colossal). The people who voted no will either sell-out or trim.

There is no upside to this. It's not like people are dying to buy TSLA because of the merger. If anything any evidence points the other way.

The consensus could swing if A) it's made known that most of the funds are firmly behind it and the vote is secure B) SCTY isn't in as bad shape as it sounds and they somehow figure out a way to make that simple and clear C) the analysts get on board D) they make a clear and concise case for how SCTY adds value. If they could accomplish that next week then buckle up. Realistically it could take 6mo or a year.

 

[Intl Professor]

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1804857/

Thanks Curt.

Given that early voting is already occurring and the Democratic candidate and bureaucratic infrastructure for getting out the vote is harmonious, in contrast to the Republican effort, turning the electoral tide at this date is unlikely at the national level. Furthermore, despite Newt Gingrich's comment recently in an exchange on Fox News, the election is turning out to be about sex after all, the Republicans worst nightmare and one created both by Trump himself and failure of key Republican politicians to disavow him aside from his remarks. That is not enough according to white Republican female leaders and commentators. Think of turning an aircraft carrier flotilla.

It may solidify Republican control of the House while my guess is the Senate will still change hands. It will be interesting to see how Nate Silver at 538 handles this. He is probably the best predictor and will doubtless, and soon, examine the issue.

Also, look for legal commentary tonight. I am impressed by the credentials of Jeffrey Toobin on CNN. Also, PBS has a great commentator who is unlikely to be on tap for this, Marcia Coyle. Usually she gives an objective analysis only after a court decision or a rundown on the arguments before the court. One exception: Last night she broke the story that Justice Thomas is accused of groping an intern at a function several years ago. He has steadfastly denied the allegation.

There must be some proverb which captures this situation, something like there are only two certainties in politics, "sex and taxes."

 

[kenliles]

I am not sure how somebody just passing a trailer in the center of Princeton could drop a 100K out of the blue, but it happened.

they were short TSLA going into ER

 

[3mp_kwh]

I think the disconnect occurs since many solar companies in the past 5 to 10 years have not fared well. Saving the earth while a good mission statement for a company cannot keep it running. However, if one were able to alter or adjust the basics of solar-- ie costs and/hence efficiency this would change the balance sheet for solar enterprises.

Right, so take the costs to the Net Metered purchaser down on top of, or below the 5 cent utility-scale PPA rate, charge the roof-top owner a flat monthly fee and then a demand charge, and you're all set. Is Musk really going to double-down on roofs, when the solar explosion is taking place somewhere else?

 

[Tempus]

It's not 100% a product introduction, but part 1 of an effort on Elon's part to show that the SCTY acquisition makes sense. Part 2 is on November 1 when he explains the financials. He said that he convinced the major institutional fund managers. If he can convince the market as well we'll be off to the races. It's not unlikely he can do that, since he convinced the fund managers without showing the product.

Yes, I get that Elon is trying to show how the acquisition makes sense, and as a consumer (and someone interested in green technology), i'm excited to see what they come up with. And to be honest, also as a LONG TERM tesla investor. I think there's a ton of potential here.

But in the short term, experience shows that no matter what he announces, or even says about the financials on Nov 1, the market is likely to take it with a huge grain of salt until they can prove that in their financial statements. We're well past the days when a tesla reveal can move the stock positively (unless they also show 300k deposits as during the model 3 reveal).

 

[stealthology]

To provide some context:

Model X
First reveal - Feb 2012
Second reveal - Sep 2015
Stable volume production - Q2/Q3 2016

Powerwall
First reveal - Apr 30, 2015
Second reveal - Oct 28, 2016
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

Model 3
First reveal - Mar 31, 2016
Second reveal - ?? unknown ??
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

Solar Roof
First reveal - Oct 28, 2016
Second reveal - ?? unknown ??
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

It will be a few years by the time we see any $ impact from all this roof hype. Although, I'm optimistic on Powewall/Powerpack 2.0 front. Hopefully volume production will start soon there.

Are you insinuating that Elon and team are lying to us about the Model 3 timeline and there's a good probably of a delay of more than 3 or so months? They confirmed it's on schedule quite a few times as of late, including a couple days ago.

 

[SBenson]

Are you saying you think Elon and team are lying to us about Model 3 and there's a good probably of a delay of more than 3 or so months? They confirmed it's on schedule quite a few times as of late, including a couple days ago.

They did the same with Model X. On earnings conference calls as well. Dig up the last several transcripts. Their words on timelines don't mean much anymore.

I'm not saying, nor did I say, they will be late. All I am saying is it's "unknown".

 

[EinSV]

<snip>

It will be a few years by the time we see any $ impact from all this roof hype. Although, I'm optimistic on Powewall/Powerpack 2.0 front. Hopefully volume production will start soon there.

IMO the solar roof unveil is no more "hype" than the Model 3 unveil or earlier product unveils.

The solar roof may not show up in the next ER but Tesla is in it for the long haul, which I think is the right way to run a business. Too many publicly traded companies are slaves to their next quarterly earnings report, and short-sighted thinking is eventually their undoing (GM, as just one of many examples).

 

[esk8mw]

Only two data points so far but both indicate that institutions sold in Q3.

BANK OF MONTREAL sold 1.7mln shares
SUMWAY DEVELOPMENT LTD (china) sold 228K shares

Where are you pulling this data?

 

[stealthology]

Where are you pulling this data?

Been a few years since I used, but www.WhaleWisdom.com reports when companies file early 13f filings, etc, and a bunch of other analytics.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Where are you pulling this data?

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings

You can click on the heading for the date column, and Nasdaq Site will sort by date, showing institutions that already reported Q3 up top. There are three pages, mostly small investors with few exceptions who reported their Q3 holdings. BTW, Bank of Montreal added huge amount of shares in Q2.

 

[esk8mw]

Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings

You can click on the heading for the date column, and Nasdaq Site will sort by date, showing institutions that already reported Q3 up top. There are three pages, mostly small investors with few exceptions who reported their Q3 holdings. BTW, Bank of Montreal added huge amount of shares in Q2.

Nice, thanks. I could go through the actual filings but that's a pain.

 

[BobSk]

To provide some context:

Model X
First reveal - Feb 2012
Second reveal - Sep 2015
Stable volume production - Q2/Q3 2016

Powerwall
First reveal - Apr 30, 2015
Second reveal - Oct 28, 2016
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

Model 3
First reveal - Mar 31, 2016
Second reveal - ?? unknown ??
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

Solar Roof
First reveal - Oct 28, 2016
Second reveal - ?? unknown ??
Volume production - ?? unknown ??

It will be a few years by the time we see any $ impact from all this roof hype. Although, I'm optimistic on Powewall/Powerpack 2.0 front. Hopefully volume production will start soon there.

I think this kind of extrapolation is misleading. The smart thing is to look into each case and find out what happened. Then think if that case will apply to future cases. Also think what could go wrong with the future cases.

The complexity of these products are dramatically different. As I view it, the model X is at least 100 times more difficult than batteries and solar products. If they can do model X, the rest will be relatively easy.

New energy storage and model 3 both rely on 2070 batteries. If they can start the battery production, there will be no show stoppers.