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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Yes, great event. Thanks Dave.

Solar Roof amazing in person. Beautiful. Disappointed with lack of details but blown away by it's potential.

Powerwalls are amazing. Super price. I put in a reservation.

I wonder if tesla will reveal reservation counts soon... thoughts?

Yes
They were beautiful.
I said this was going to be a big differentiator but some people here got upset with that viewpoint.

Tesla showed that an ev could also look beautiful like a Maserati not a bad version of a high school science project.

It is great to see that they could get that look with only a small penalty in efficiency.
 
Comparable to Conventional roofing +electricity for the house... so it will be considerable more expensive than asphalt roofing.
not really. I had my PV array installed in 1999 (spring) right after re-roofing and almost dying from falling off
The asphalt shingled roof NEEDS replacing AGAIN. Asphalt roofing is cheap IF you sell the house before you need to re-roof
 
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does anybody NOT see TSLA moving significantly up in the next couple weeks?

It's best to think in probabilistic rather than absolute terms. The probability of any specific direction -- up or down -- is low in such a short time period for such a volatile stock. There are so many forces impacting short term sp beyond fundamentals news.

Which is why I would prefer renaming this thread to something like "Daily Discussion", (which better reflects what actually occurs in this thread, anyway).<===In-post addition by Moderator: I've been thinking of using some other...any other!...title for 2017; your suggestion is at least as good as any I've come up with. Thanks for the thought.

I highly doubt that anyone can consistently make money by placing bets as short as two weeks out. Maybe with very disciplined TA a very small advantage could be had with a lot of effort, but there are few documented examples of that. On the flip side, losses can happen quickly trying to time the market.

I believe just the opposite about bets of 6-24 months duration. And in that time frame my bet on TSLA is up. Way up.
 
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However, the sense that I get from that small sampling is that, disregarding any effects directly attributable to the upcoming US elections, the forces weighing AGAINST a short- and medium-term upward movement by TSLA include:
Thank you.

A well reasoned list of reasons that didn't mention short sellers or FUD once.

I realize that those things both have an impact. The problem is that eventually the SP will increase and those things won't have gone away. IMO using shorting to analyze the SP can be extremely valuable for day trading, but not very useful for predicting medium or long term price movements.
 
Elon talked about utilities having bright future with 2/3rd of total electricity by them. I think he brought it up to signal that he is not anti-utility. I think this a smart and mature move on his part not to make too many enemies. Contrast that with his open outburst on NV govt ("house always wins" comment regarding stopping of net meeting) or CARB ("CARB should be ashamed of themselves" comment)
 
Since the full COGS of those cars was already recognized under GAAP when the car was originally purchased this has the benefit of improving GAAP gross margins..

Cost of RVG (owner) cars goes into Operating Lease Vehicles on the asset side of the Balance Sheet. Over the term of the RVG, the Operating Lease vehicles are depreciated into COGS on a straight line basis down to the RVG value. If the car is not returned, the un-depreciated balance is written off to COGS. The cost write-off is equal to the revenue recognized so GM is unaffected..

"In cases when a customer retains ownership of a vehicle at the end of the guarantee period, the resale value guarantee liability and any remaining deferred revenue balances related to the vehicle are settled to automotive revenue and the net book value of the leased vehicle is expensed to costs of automotive revenue. In cases when customers return the vehicle back to us during the guarantee period, we purchase the vehicle from the customer in an amount equal to the resale value guarantee and settle any remaining deferred balances to automotive revenue and we reclassify the net book value of the vehicle on our balance sheet to pre-owned vehicle inventory."

There is a slight negative GM impact for customer-retained cars since no warranty reserve was initially set up for RVG cars; warranty cost were expensed as incurred. Presumably, Tesla will have to add an adjustment to pre-existing warranty reserves to cover the remaining period under warranty.

4. Car leased through a bank partner. Is this the same as a direct lease or somehow different?

Under GAAP, the same; but FASB, has prospective rule revisions about recognizing lease revenue so the accounting may change.
 
3. Cars leased directly from Tesla have their revenue and COGS recognized ratably through the term of the lease. Is this just portion that is in excess of the residual value or the entire purchase price?

The former; however, on direct leases Tesla adds the $7,500 tax credit to the estimated market residual value but has no income tax liability to write off the credit so at the end of the direct lease it is very likely most cars will be returned and Tesla will have to write down its pre-owned vehicle inventory.
 
TMI 2 Operator error. TMI 1 is not scheduled to be de-commissioned until 2034.

We got rid of it because it was too vulnerable to operator error. That required a citizens initiative to remove it. Again, people more important than officials. If I remember correctly Jimmy Carter visited TM2 to show it was safe when at the time there was a hydrogen bubble in the reactor and they didn't know whether it would blow.

I worked for a year in a policy position at the old USAEC when I received a public administration fellowship. At that time the engineers were working furiously to show off the economics of a nuclear powered desalting plant sponsored by LA's Metropolitan Water District. Then all push stopped as it was determined at a very late date that the economics were off by a factor of at least two. That despite the massive R&D sponsored by the government plus a liability limitation of $500,000,000. (I don't know what it is now.)

I'm with Bezos. Better to have polluting industries located in outer space. I'm perfectly happy, as I'm sure most here are, to have a fusion reactor working full time 93,000,000 miles or so from Earth. Cold fusion will get more subsidies if the right candidates get elected.
 
I think the question is can Tesla survive without another decent drop basically without support from these analysts? Does the investing world (including smart money/institutions/funds etc) put much weight on what analysts have to say or can they see through some of it sometimes? Hopefully they mostly just scared a bunch of retail investors/traders. Still a lot to unfold.

Thoughts?
 
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So with q3 earnings last Wed., the solar/battery stuff last night, Before The Flood hitting tomorrow, the merger info session on Tues, the election, the merger; does anybody NOT see TSLA moving significantly up in the next couple weeks? If so why? Please be specific, not just general cynicism or sideways fatigue.
No, I see the TSLA price up 10 to 15%.... if the merger vote is a no. Unfortunately SCTY goes under $5. Otherwise slow grind lower as big holders, who were against the merger , try to exit in an orderly fashion and shorts cover with reasonable profits. As to sideways fatigue, it seems many fail to take their charts back 4 years since this is a short term thread. If you owned back then you have had multiple opportunities to exit with the magical "ten bagger". What more do you want from EM?
 
So with q3 earnings last Wed., the solar/battery stuff last night, Before The Flood hitting tomorrow, the merger info session on Tues, the election, the merger; does anybody NOT see TSLA moving significantly up in the next couple weeks? If so why? Please be specific, not just general cynicism or sideways fatigue.

* Potential Positive or Negative- November 8 + 1 day. Clean energy companies give a sigh of relief and get a boost if Clinton wins, they take a bigger hit if Trump wins

* Potential Positive or Negative- Macros are a potential issue, but fortunately we're not likely to hear details from the FBI for some time about the latest Clinton email investigation because the investigation is ongoing.

* Potential Positive or Negative- Tuesday's Solar City Financial event has considerable potential as a big positive if Elon gives a clear view of the likely activities and cash needs of SCTY for 2017. If investors feel he wasn't clear and forthcoming, the event could have a negative effect the next day because there are generally positive expectations about the event. A neutral feeling by investors after listening to the event can for this reason be considered a negative.

* Potential Positive- On Friday, shorts did a selling attack in the morning and it was overruled by the market by noon. Notice I said "shorts" and not "bears". The several deep tentacles with immediate near recoveries clearly says "shorts" because a bear trying to sell at the best price would not be selling in such obviously large blocks unless bad news had just broken. Only the Clinton email news caused TSLA to go negative in the afternoon (plus maybe a little extra help from market makers and shorts in the final half hour). That news surprise is not likely to repeat itself. The market was indicating that TSLA was underpriced prior to that news and the market may reward TSLA this week for that reason

* Potential Negative- In case you haven't noticed, shorts have been very active in affecting TSLA's SP lately. Twice in the last month, right after the Q3 delivery numbers were released and right after the 3Q ER, TSLA climbed to 214 or nearly so, then suddenly leveled off. The day after the delivery numbers were released, TSLA stopped its climb at 214 and then was pushed to 213 and traded sideways for most of the remainder of the day. Fishy? You bet. Right after the 3Q ER, TSLA plateaued for a short period below 214 before being driven down to practically zero gain before recovering a few dollars. Hard to explain without the involvement of short-selling? Yes. Expect similar resistance the next time TSLA approaches 214, because if it goes much higher there's a good chance of a breakout. The shorts aren't going to stop these games until either the SP blasts through 215 in a major breakout and a squeeze begins or Tesla releases enough positive information to convince shorts and longs alike that there's no chance of a cash crunch during 2017.

Summary: There's enough cloudiness in my crystal balls that I really can't decide if TSLA is going up in the next couple of weeks or not. I see considerable potential for breaking through the 214 level with an even better Q4 ER, but that's a topic for another day.
 
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No, I see the TSLA price up 10 to 15%.... if the merger vote is a no. Unfortunately SCTY goes under $5. Otherwise slow grind lower as big holders, who were against the merger , try to exit in an orderly fashion and shorts cover with reasonable profits. As to sideways fatigue, it seems many fail to take their charts back 4 years since this is a short term thread. If you owned back then you have had multiple opportunities to exit with the magical "ten bagger". What more do you want from EM?
There is a big difference between 10 bagger and 300 bagger. My investment started around $30, I have been adding frequently since then. In my view, this company is very likely to gain 30 fold to 50 fold in the next 10 years. I am pretty sure I will be adding again no matter it's next step is $150 or $300. I can't comment on traders. I know the hardcore shorts don't understand Tesla. Selling something they don't own is looking for trouble. Selling something they don't own AND don't understand is idiotic.
 
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

Without your deep learning from the investment community, complimentary arguments can be made about U.S. business leaders compared to some of their peers internationally. To illustrate from solid business sources, in 1980 there was an influential Harvard Business School study called “Managing Our Way to Decline,” which I couldn’t access directly but there is an update to it in 2007.

Managing Our Way to Economic Decline

If I remember the original correctly business leaders here, contrasted to their engineering and hands-on production experience of their global peers, notably Germany and Japan, had background in education and experience in finance, legal, and marketing. The original article specified accounting as strong favorites and the ability to lobby Congress for favorable conditions, including but not limited to tax preferences and accounting rules themselves.

Somewhere in Death of a Salesman Willy Lohman is made to say, “it’s not important what you say, it’s how you say it.” That attitude led to his eventual suicide, just as dealing only with the money economy by the previous administration had to bailed out by the Fed and the all-too weak efforts of the first Obama Administration when they had a chance with a Democratic Congress.

Though I have problems with Charlie Rose who often interrupts perfectly enjoyable guests, this time he confined himself to prompting Jeff Bezos in an interview yesterday. Since it’s the weekend members might want to take a look.

Jeff Bezos - Charlie Rose

I have problems with Bezos based on my knee-jerk reactions from reports about Amazon’s treatment of workers at fulfillment centers, even Walmart is finding happy workers mean effective employees, but Bezos clearly has his head on about more modern business methods than the aforementioned analysts can consider. He reminds me of Musk. Customers first, I think Bezos said, find out what is your customer’s obsession. Great product is a good start, etc. He discusses his businesses in almost the same way as Abernathy and Hayes recommend to increase worker productivity, etc.

Also, when asked about web services and innovation in general, Bezos talks about runway of an innovative or disruptive idea. If you’re lucky you have two years before competitors can catch up to the idea, with web services “we’ve had seven years without real competition.” For those above who were annoyed by Musk not filling in details at once, perhaps he has a passion for some secrecy (as does Bezos) to keep control of something for a time out of the hands of competitors.

Musk and Bezos have solid technical backgrounds like the compared global competitors in “Managing Our Way to Decline.”

Sorry for the political shot. Our political leaders generally have legal backgrounds too, in contrast to the Chinese who generally have engineering degrees. Angela Merkel has a Ph.D. in physics, one of Musk’s undergraduate majors.

Mind you I have no problem with lawyers as government degrees are often the way for most of my better students, including one who is the richest man I know and a wonderful advocate for health and machinery safety, plus direct subsidy to a very well known shelter for women. Three others have become superior court judges and the county courthouse is named for one of them who died tragically at mid-career. And esk8mw is one of our most useful in-house corporate attorneys.

Lawyers are some of my best friends.:)
 
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Cost of RVG (owner) cars goes into Operating Lease Vehicles on the asset side of the Balance Sheet. Over the term of the RVG, the Operating Lease vehicles are depreciated into COGS on a straight line basis down to the RVG value. If the car is not returned, the un-depreciated balance is written off to COGS. The cost write-off is equal to the revenue recognized so GM is unaffected..
Good input as usual. But mathematically, if I add the same number to both numerator and denominator, the fraction should get closer to 1. As GM is a percentage, it should decrease, although total gross profit remains unchanged. Is this not true?

GM = ( 1 - COGS/Revenue) * 100.
(COGS + X)/(Revenue + X) > COGS/Revenue, assuming all positive numbers, and COGS < Revenue.
 
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I think the question is can Tesla survive without another decent drop basically without support from these analysts? Does the investing world (including smart money/institutions/funds etc) put much weight on what analysts have to say or can they see through some of it sometimes? Hopefully they mostly just scared a bunch of retail investors/traders. Still a lot to unfold.

Thoughts?

My view is that Tesla is like a volcano about to explode. They grow 50-70 % per year, they innovate in many areas, producing valuable new products, including the best car ever made, etc. But the stock price is frozen. The carbon powers and their financial partners are working very hard to hold down the stock price in the face of the growing Tesla force in our economy. They may be able to hold TSLA down for a bit longer, but the Tesla pressure from beneath continues to grow, so that the eventual explosion will be that much stronger. Just when the explosion will come will depend mostly on how influential the carbon industry is in our lives and how much money they want to throw away trying to slow down TSLA. They have a lot (trillions of $) to lose, so one should expect the effort to become even greater than what we already see. Like many who have advised in this thread, best to stay long and wait for that magical day when TSLA becomes so compelling that the forces against the company carry no weight. That day appears to be near.
 
Thank you.

A well reasoned list of reasons that didn't mention short sellers or FUD once.

I realize that those things both have an impact. The problem is that eventually the SP will increase and those things won't have gone away. IMO using shorting to analyze the SP can be extremely valuable for day trading, but not very useful for predicting medium or long term price movements.
I hope it was clear to all that I used that post to list only the negative forces, as per an earlier post requesting a list of same: I did not mean at all to imply they would win out against the positive forces!
 
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