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That's what is great about this site. So many smart investors letting the great unwashed know how to make gains beyond what the cynics can imagine. I didn't even know a "300 bagger" was a thing, especially on a "short term" thread. Oh, and the humility is breathtaking. Here's short term trading, cover short puts for gain early Thursday AM, leave long term puts in place to gain by Friday PM. Sell some more puts for week before merger vote, because who knows what the hell happens then!
I doubt you will hear about large institutions who want to buy in a large scale. This could prompt a huge run up in the price and make that large institution pay an arm and a leg. This is probably why you often hear about fund managers who complain about how it is more difficult to make trades once the fund has gotten larger.
I also suspect that when you see prices bounce off support levels that often-times the support prices are dictated by these bullish large institutions getting good deals for themselves and/or following technical analysis. So I think you are seeing the large bullish institutions at work, just not pushing the prices up, but keeping it from falling too low.
That's a really good distinction which is hard to know which people are talking about sometimes. You could have a long-term bear that's called a "short" or a quant fund that is in and out in minutes or hours also called a "short" even if it ends up going "long" later in the day. Or you could have a long-term bull position that just that reads the Broder piece and takes a short-term short position and I'm sure lots of other combinations.
stealthology
Member
Discussion to speculate what surprises Elon may have in mind for Tuesday? I'm trying to find the audio where I believe Elon mentioned something along the lines of 'unfortunately b/c of laws, we can't disclose some exciting things until after the merger is complete'.
Preparing the market for what? They didn't even have a working system. Did they announce when the roofs would be ready? What info did they provide to get high end home builders on board? The cost to install? Maintenance costs? What are my margins? What additional training and what will that cost?
Most companies would work on lining up distribution partners in time for the product release with substantial information, commitments, etc, not think they would recruit them by having a content-light presentation.
Don't get me wrong, I think Tesla needs to keep up with their hype strategy.
My bingo card has:
"Synergy"
"Integration"
"Beautiful roofing"
"Cost improvement"
Some variation of "soup to nuts"
dennis
Model S Plaid
Yeah, I agree, seems to be working very well for them. Look how early they revealed the Model S and Model X, and how those have fared in the market. And the Model 3, with 373K deposits for a car that was 18 months away. Who would have thunk it?
i don't think it's a bad idea to present new products to get people excited about it. Having huge reservation numbers are also very favorable for getting good conditions from suppliers and getting them excited about it. but i think this right now is different. EM tries a little bit to hard to convince people. This is of course, because right now he needs investors approval for the merger and a higher SP would be favorable for a potential capital raise. I actually think he would be better of just stating things a little bit more precisely. F.e. "we had an awesome quarter and used accumulated ZEV credits to even turn it into a GAAP profit. " or "we have this awesome new concept for solar roofs and are very confident to produce it by 2017 therefore we have this early presentation." The results are great. But by not being precise people get suspicious if they find out later f.e. about the ZEV credits. Musk managed to create a momentum among investors in late 2008 when he pretended that things were better than they were (he said SpaceX would by credit) and therefore saved TSLA. Maybe right now he tries a similar strategy but doesn't realize that a large cap public company is different.
My impression for the event is that it seemed a bit cut short. I think they could have revealed more, but chose not to.
I'm thinking that because the event was planned to drum up support for the merger, back when the TSLA/SCTY arbitage was quite substantial, the cuts in content could fit with there no longer being a need for the event. If Tesla knows the vote will go through, there's little need to share information about Solar roofs that won't be available until mid-2017, potentially Osbourning current sales. Of course, they couldn't cancel the event - that would be taken very much the wrong way. So, they had an event where they shared basically as little information as they thought they could get away with.
I'm thinking that because the event was planned to drum up support for the merger, back when the TSLA/SCTY arbitage was quite substantial, the cuts in content could fit with there no longer being a need for the event. If Tesla knows the vote will go through, there's little need to share information about Solar roofs that won't be available until mid-2017, potentially Osbourning current sales. Of course, they couldn't cancel the event - that would be taken very much the wrong way. So, they had an event where they shared basically as little information as they thought they could get away with.
exactly my opinion/observations. Many fonds lack the entrepreneurial spirit to identify a great upcoming company before it gets huge. They leave this kind of investment to VCs and invest primarily if there is a stable history of profits. like @AudubonB pointed out they are risk averse and a merger between two companies that has never be done in such a way (cars+ solar) comes with uncertainties and uncertainties are risks. Especially if both companies still burn cash and the value of the GW installed portfolio of SC is not entirely clear. Most of the big TSLA investors seem different, but they also may not necessarily like the extra risk. I'm long TSLA and quite sure we will get there. i'm even planing to increase my TSLA position and hope for further cheap entry points. Therefore i try to understand the short term perspectives a little bit better. Concrete: Which investors reduce/sell because of the merger (because of higher uncertainties or angst, rules of their funds, lack of knowledge and so on). I want to figure out if i should buy when clinton gets elected or if we can expect a drop after a successful merger (significantly below the 193 SP at which other investors buy)
so you think TSLA knows right now, the vote will go through and they didn't knew when the TSLA/SCTY arbitrage was quite high? or they cared about the arbitrage?
ok thx. so you think there is a correlation between the arbitrage and the probability that the merger goes through? is there any logical explanation for this? f.e. are large shareholders allowed to share informations how they are going to vote with each other or is this considered sharing insider information? would they do this if they are allowed to or would they probably hold there cards to the chest?
or are there other reasons you think the merger goes through right now and it was unclear then?
musk told reports that he talked to investors and is confident about the merger back in july. so what changed?
are there any news from the lawsuits? electrek reported the next hearing was set to be on october 14 but nobody reported about it afterwards.
On September 11th Musk said "We are still getting a lot of flak for the whole SolarCity thing, which I think is unreasonable" and "One of the worst weeks ever, really."
On September 22nd, they announced the Solar roof event. And since that point in time, the arbitage has dropped from 21.4% to 7.1%.
I don't know exactly how much information can be shared, but I'm sure Tesla has talked to all the major investors, and has gotten an impression of how they will vote, and they probably do talk between themselves as well, to some extent or other. I also assume Tesla has access to the votes already cast. So, if Tesla can see that there already is something like 25 million votes in favour of the merger, Tesla doesn't need a PR campaign to push the merger through. (Voting started October 12th.)
The arbitrage spread and the probability of the merger going through should be close to a 1 in correlation assuming the financials markets are effective and informed.
Precisely. I am stunned by the way even the best of the professional media seem to cast Musk as the Music Man. But Henry Hill was an unadulterated con man, with no history of success of any kind. EM has a history of astounding success, all of which has made him one of the wealthiest people in the world.
It's fair game to criticize EM for all sorts of flaws he puts on display (all of your and my flaws are thankfully not scrutinized by the public), and missteps along the way, but in doing so you at least have to acknowledge that his track record indicates that there is a highly successful method to his madness.
hmm i think "flak for the whole SolarCity thing" referrers to general criticism and falling SP. I think this, because both TSLA and SCTY tanked. If the merger would be in jeopardy TSLA would have risen. "worst week ever" referrers to share prices tanking and falcon explosion. I'm not sure that Tesla has access. F.e. in Germany if you vote postal(politics) , your vote will be opened the day of the vote. Not earlier. I think this is, because it could influence others. Does anyone have knowledge about the procedure of shareholder voting, especially regarding mergers?
yeah but i don't think markets are effective and informed. Arbitrage dropping from 21.4% to 7.1% could simply be a chance of sentiment/ different momentum among investors. F.e. shortly before the Brexit vote everyone bought sterling. Markets tend to herd behaviour, because every participant assumes the others know more and they follow. Therefore i think it's dangerous to assume that markets calculate the probability right. Of course it would be different if they can speak to each other and now know that the probability is now higher. maybe because one or two big investors changed opinion.
The interest cost of shorting tesla was/is high at times, making the arbitrage less profitable
If not outright unprofitable.
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