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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I'm not sure when this short video, about 11:27, with Elon was shot, but it contains some interesting comments.

For example on future range. he has no intention, of stopping future range increases:
Feels like last year or early this year. This is before Elon said they aren't going past 100kWh.

So many variables:
  • How far 100kWh on a Model 3? (handful of years away, or less)
  • How far 100kWh if it is self-driven car that self-charges? It can charge between customer rides, and only long distance would require recharges. Also, a self-driving car can let the passengers do non-driving activities, making their time more valuable, and less costly to be an actual driver, and therefore the car would not have to go as fast, saving energy to go the same distance. (Handful of years away or less.)
  • Automatic cars can hook to each other on freeways and expressways that are going the same direction, like train cars: they can reduce total wind resistance in this manner. Also, if the hook has electrical connection, some cars that know they will not need all of their energy can send charge or actively used motive power to other cars in the train.
  • How far would the above three cars go if they also had a very high efficiency all-body-panel and all-glass solar collector system above 30% efficiency from any angle? That's only a few % increase in distance -- not much (it would fully charge a single owner single user parked car for regular commutes, but not a full duty self driving car constantly in use). Plus, that's about 15-20 years away, about when we'll start having a colony on Mars and the next evolution of the Human race will already be around, and flying electric planes might be available, so it won't be a very interesting question at that time compared to all the other fantastic stuff going on. Really, since most cars will be full-duty self driving cars, they will use more energy than sun energy that hits them, so it won't make sense to have the extra weight of solar panels attached to them at all; they will rather use other methods I described.
  • Maybe they can get +20% capacity in the next 5-10 years, so a 120kWh battery.
Imagine all 4 of the above happening in 20 years: a car that only has to go 40MPH-45MPH because you are doing valuable activity in the vehicle while it drives, 120kWh, lighter car, automatically connects to other cars in car trains on the freeway reducing drag, automatic charging from other cars in the train, from the roadways from embedded electricity transmitters, and from other random ideas that come to be; that car would go very very far compared to current models. Also, if you are just a passenger and it's not your car, you can easily switch to another fully charged car after many hundreds of miles riden, if that is what you want to do. Say, you get in a car in the morning, work, have meetings, then, for break, lunch, and break, you get out, take a walk, and get back in a different car. You could literally go forever using this methodology, even today. Thus I predict that cars will not need to be able to go as far as they would be able to go if all the above distance lengthening tools are used.

Having said that, I'm about to take delivery of a 60D that I already calculated will slow me down from my usual driving speeds on many of the trips I already am used to taking regularly. To someone like me and you that runs into distance limitations, all of my above calculations seem like pie in the sky future crap that just doesn't make any sense. Well, in 5-10 years, revisit, and distance concerns will probably not matter as much as they used to, for a few (but not all) of the possible reasons above.

Unfortunately, the greatest enabler here is self driving cars, and that will not be unique to Tesla forever. They have a head start, though, so we get to see how much market share they catch.

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Well, the federal government doesn't tax inventory. *Change* in the value of inventory may be taxable income, but it could also be deductible loss, which is only fair.

The states are another matter. Apparently as of 2011, 11 states had inventory property taxes, and these *are* a terrible idea.

I found this helpful answer from a tax professional on JustAnswer.com

It seems to be down to Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana (with a rebate), Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi (with exemptions), Oklahoma, Rhode Island (with most manufacturers exempted), Texas, West Viriginia. I guess those states want business to locate elsewhere.
They must have fixed it. I wonder where I got the misperception that this was an issue. I've lived in California, Iowa, New York City, Oregon and Puerto Rico, so I don't know where I was at the time that I learned that inventory was taxable. The most accounting and inventory jobs I ever had were in California, Iowa and New York City. Maybe I was fed bad information.
 
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Off topic, received a letter from BMW today that they have a software update for our i3 to improve accuracy of estimated range and battery management. They would like me to bring car in for the update, what is this 1995?

I'm going to pass, it's a 2 hour round trip plus wait time and I'm happily giving car back next June when lease ends. Besides, not hard to figure out the range, I just stay within 20 miles of my garage in my Tesla Killer!
 

Omg. This VADA guy is classic...

Yeah, these guys "car dealers" certainly need protection... after all Car Dealer franchisees KNOW they are dirtbags and need protection. Only way for them to survive.

Funny thing is... as Electrex article mentioned, these car dealer franchise laws are set up to protect the franchisee against the car manufacturer from selling directly against the dealer.

HOWEVER, in tesla's case they've NEVER used franchises (car dealers) in the U.S. so these laws do NOT apply.
 

LOL. Thanks for sharing. I've temporarily placed the VADA video on my website home page where I normally have a pro-Tesla video: www.CurtRenz.com

Some folks on the internet are comparing the VADA video with the Hitler Downfall parodies. Here's one of those related to Tesla that I created for YouTube nearly three years ago.

 
Not I (one data point only). Too difficult to call consistently. I believe J19s in place of stock are the closest options I can see that should give investors a good risk/reward ratio. If you accept the 'short thesis' proposed by @Papafox you should be able to make some money in the short term. I do appreciate all the work that he is doing but I am not willing to put hard earned dollars based on it.
...

Hmm, I'd also like to know more about this thesis that says Tesla is going up in the short term. I'm unfamiliar with its author.

What I said is that shorts have been acquiring lots of shares in TSLA over the past two weeks (which is verifiable) but not getting the type of reaction in the stock price they're used to. I said if, throughout the coming week, TSLA's SP keeps rising as it has been for the past two weeks, we might see some shorts start to cover. There's a lot of "if"s and "might"s here. My point has never been to predict the short term movement of TSLA. I cannot reliably predict it because I don't know what the macros will do and what the Tesla news will be. My point has been to suggest that the activities of the shorts should be monitored closely so that if we do see a substantial change in behavior (such as covering), we trade accordingly. I'm just like you Al. I believe investors (short and long) are primarily basing their decisions on the perceived risk vs. reward of TSLA. The manipulations of shorts are just part of the picture.
 
Another off-topic, pulled up behind a shiny new BMW 750 something in the turn lane in my Model S 60. Unfortunately, when he left, he left in a cloud of blue smoke. Wonder how much that's going to cost him?

My favorite such moment - we were driving along in our tesla model X and see a BMW i8 turn the corner. We are like: Whoa, sexy... then he turns into a gas station while we keep driving, going like: Nah....
 
SEC knocks Tesla over 'tailored' accounting in earnings release ...

This is not good..... I am a little bit worried about this but I can not overview what SEC means with tailored accounting and how "big" this is. Is there someone here that has more information about this and how much it will affect stock price?

Edited
I just found the Electrc ( Tesla gets a slap on the wrist from the SEC over accounting method ) article and there you can see that the have already changed method in the Q3 report so I guess that it will not affect the SP?
 
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SEC knocks Tesla over 'tailored' accounting in earnings release ...

This is not good..... I am a little bit worried about this but I can not overview what SEC means with tailored accounting and how "big" this is. Is there someone here that has more information about this and how much it will affect stock price?

Edited
I just found the Electrc ( Tesla gets a slap on the wrist from the SEC over accounting method ) article and there you can see that the have already changed method in the Q3 report so I guess that it will not affect the SP?

This is history. Nothing new. It's been resolved. For some reasons it's just becoming news now. Click bait headlines.
 
Hmm, I'd also like to know more about this thesis that says Tesla is going up in the short term. I'm unfamiliar with its author.

What I said is that shorts have been acquiring lots of shares in TSLA over the past two weeks (which is verifiable) but not getting the type of reaction in the stock price they're used to. I said if, throughout the coming week, TSLA's SP keeps rising as it has been for the past two weeks, we might see some shorts start to cover. There's a lot of "if"s and "might"s here. My point has never been to predict the short term movement of TSLA. I cannot reliably predict it because I don't know what the macros will do and what the Tesla news will be. My point has been to suggest that the activities of the shorts should be monitored closely so that if we do see a substantial change in behavior (such as covering), we trade accordingly. I'm just like you Al. I believe investors (short and long) are primarily basing their decisions on the perceived risk vs. reward of TSLA. The manipulations of shorts are just part of the picture.

My post that you quoted never suggested that based on your info/short information that the SP of TSLA was going to rise.

My post was answering a question from another member about how to trade in the short term.

I indicated that it was too difficult but that if one followed and accepted information about the 'short thesis' (shorts manipulating the price of TSLA) that one should be able to use that info to make money in the short term.

Personally, I watch the short levels in the long run (weeks/months) but not on a daily basis.
 
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