Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

I find today's trading quite interesting. The deep dips followed by near recoveries is a classic short-selling signature. The Fidelity numbers shared by vgrinshpun confirms that shorts loaded up on the ammo this morning. Notice that any time the stock price is getting close to the green we see selling to bring it back down (another classic sign). If volume tapers off this afternoon, which is typical, then the shorts gain some advantage.

 

[AudubonB]

Mod Note:
As always, it is expressly forbidden to use thread space to discuss other posters. No exceptions.

Also, however, the increase in non-investment-related posts is out of control. Keep it close to topic, all.

 

[kenliles]

Have you guys heard this. Audi is starting out with its EV program, on the moon!

No *sugar*

Audi’s first all-electric vehicle will be shipped to the moon in a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket

Part of a new marketing campaign no doubt
'Audi first EV - 238,900 mile range'
-using new SpaceX technology

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Audi’s first all-electric vehicle will be shipped to the moon in a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket

Part of a new marketing campaign no doubt
'Audi first EV - 238,900 mile range'
-using new SpaceX technology

Reminds me a little of this

AXE Company Wants to Launch 22 People Into Space

Astronaut Buzz Aldrin Launches Space Flight Contest

 

[MitchJi]

Now Detroit News is corroborating today with a similar story citing a person familiar with the matter, claiming the anticipated loss on the $37,500 base price is roughly $8,000 to $9,000.

Report: GM will lose ~$9,000 for every Chevy Bolt EV it sells before ZEV credit

And?! It's not a credible figure. It's similar to the claim that Tesla loses money on every car that they make.

 

[vgrinshpun]

You sure do like to post a bunch of nonsense in this thread. Must be getting paid a pretty penny to stir discontent.

And at interesting times from the point of view of SP. Surge rates (using Uber analogy)?

 

[Value Ev]

And?! It's not a credible figure. It's similar to the claim that Tesla loses money on every car that they make.

I found that a little odd also. 9k is a serious amount of money on a 38k car. I hope that someone provides more information on this to support it or come up with a different number.

It could be that they amortized the R&D against the 30k expected deliveries, but that is not the right comparison either.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I don't believe that they are losing $9k on the Bolt. The battery costs them about $12k. They make money on similar ICE's (sonic and Cruz) at about $16k. Except for the battery it's cheaper to produce EV's than ICE's. The numbers don't add up.

May be LG Chem got so pissed at GM for revealing that they are buying battery $100/kWh cheaper than anybody else that they decided to add $100 back in. If numbers do not add up, I would suggest that numbers provided by GM engineer are more suspect than numbers in the Bloomberg article.

 

[Gerardf]

I don't believe that they are losing $9k on the Bolt. The battery costs them about $12k. They make money on similar ICE's (sonic and Cruz) at about $16k. Except for the battery it's cheaper to produce EV's than ICE's. The numbers don't add up.

I think the story could be correct. GM has quit e afew additional costs on the EV part on top of the cells :

- LG margin. The GM Bolt is vistually an LG Bolt. LG is supplying 11 systems to the Bolt, including the motor, inverters, the power control module, and the heating and air-conditioning system, as well as the entertainment system. Maybe the cells are relatively low cost, but what does the rest cost ? Tela produces almost all of these subsystems themselves.
-Typical costs to build a pack seem higher for the type of cells GM uses compared to cilindrical cells as Tesla uses.

- Dealer margin,. No matter how much GM earns or looses per car. Dealers will want their percentage. Of course Tesla has their store costs, but these are much smaller than a typical dealer.
- Marketing and advertising.

And of course GM will have to write off R&D on a much lower volume than Tesla, but not sure if that should be counted.

 

[Lessmog]

Audi’s first all-electric vehicle will be shipped to the moon in a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket

Part of a new marketing campaign no doubt
'Audi first EV - 238,900 mile range'
-using new SpaceX technology

One-way range ...

 

[brian45011]

I made a Tesla new aggregator Tesla News but teslarati is problematic because so many of the stories are not stock related. they have a tag for investors but this story wasn't included. Investor's Corner News - TESLARATI.com

Thanks! Are the Buffalo New and the Reno Gazette Journal in your feed?

 

[techmaven]

I don't believe that they are losing $9k on the Bolt. The battery costs them about $12k. They make money on similar ICE's (sonic and Cruz) at about $16k. Except for the battery it's cheaper to produce EV's than ICE's. The numbers don't add up.

I believe looking at a Sonic or Cruze is not the proper starting point. Instead, I suggest starting with a Buick Encore, which has a list price of about $24k. It is dimensionally almost identical to the Bolt and is the closest platform cousin. The cost to build that car is likely around $18-19k. The Bolt then has upgraded infotainment system, cellular connectivity, and substantially more high strength steel construction. Plus, the amortization of vehicle specific costs are across a very low production number. The Cruze sells over 200,000 vehicles a year in the U.S. alone, much less globally. Without even talking about the EV portions and the much cheaper interior, it is likely that a Bolt w/o drivetrain is $4-5k more to build. The gasoline engine in a Encore is a really cheap one... if we assume the cost of the motor is the same as the cost of the engine, then we have to add the battery, charger, and inverter as well as more expensive motor controller. Add about $12,500 for the battery pack, $2,500 for the inverter, $1,000 for the charger, and call the rest an even swap for the rest of the ICE powertrain. That's then
~$38,000 at the raw cost. The invoice price is around $36,000. Add to it marketing, training, warranty and all sorts of other sales costs. That's easily then about a $5,000+ loss per car. But the ZEV credits make up for it... it is in interesting calculation to see how many Chevy must sell in ZEV states versus not, as every sale outside of the ZEV states is subsidized by sales in the ZEV states.

 

[Turing]

Random question: If Tesla is ever acquired by a larger company, could its open patent catalog be reversed? Sort of like how Oracle acquired Sun Microsystems and then went after google.

 

[MitchJi]

May be LG Chem got so pissed at GM for revealing that they are buying battery $100/kWh cheaper than anybody else that they decided to add $100 back in. If numbers do not add up, I would suggest that numbers provided by GM engineer are more suspect than numbers in the Bloomberg article.

Are you seriously suggesting that LG is reneging on their contract with GM.

The cell costs were publicly announced by GM. They were bragging about them. The pack cost estimates by the GM engineer, about $65 per kWh are much higher than Tesla's. They seem reasonable to me. How huge an advantage do you think Tesla has?

I think the story could be correct. GM has quit e afew additional costs on the EV part on top of the cells :

- LG margin. The GM Bolt is vistually an LG Bolt. LG is supplying 11 systems to the Bolt, including the motor, inverters, the power control module, and the heating and air-conditioning system, as well as the entertainment system. Maybe the cells are relatively low cost, but what does the rest cost ? Tela produces almost all of these subsystems themselves.

GM are really dumb if they spend that much on those parts from LG. They could make most of those themselves (EV1). The only motivation to buy them from LG is if the price is better than they can produce them for themselves..

-Typical costs to build a pack seem higher for the type of cells GM uses ebcompared to cilindrical cells as Tesla uses.

Already included. They are paying $145 for the cells.

- Dealer margin,. No matter how much GM earns or looses per car. Dealers will want their percentage. Of course Tesla has their store costs, but these are much smaller than a typical dealer.
- Marketing and advertising.

And of course GM will have to write off R&D on a much lower volume than Tesla, but not sure if that should be counted.

All of those costs are already accounted for by the comparison with the Sonic and Cruz.

 

[ggies07]

man, if I could go back to school, I would get this type of degree:

Master Degree Programs For The Renewable Energy Economy

The curriculum for this program was developed from the bottom up through sessions with an advisory board composed of industry experts. Board members include representatives from SunPower, Pacific Gas and Electric, the California Public Utility Commission, the California Independent System Operators, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, and Advanced Microgrid Systems.

 

[MitchJi]

if we assume the cost of the motor is the same as the cost of the engine....

Clearly that's an incorrect assumption!

And you are not includling the cost of the exhaust, fuel lines and gas tank, the smog related stuff etc,

The Bolt then has upgraded infotainment system, cellular connectivity, and substantially more high strength steel construction.

Infotainment system and cellular connectivity?! Mouse nuts.

 

[3Victoria]

Are you seriously suggesting that LG is reneging on their contract with GM.

No, but it may be a limited offer. Also, buying LG stuff might be for expediency, not because it is cheaper. I expect they got a good deal. The important deal would be for a larger volume of product.

TSLA seems to be following the NASDAQ.

 

[All Your Bases]

You don't need a trading license to run a small hedge fund as long those buying in are 'experienced', and his advice given here wouldn't be any more illegal than our own. His head office is, however, his two bedroom residential apartment. So there's that.

I'm sure you are correct, and I don't believe that I have implied otherwise or implied any illegality/wrongdoing, anybody is allowed his/her own opinions, as far as I am concerned.

 

[techmaven]

Clearly that's an incorrect assumption!

Conveniently forgetting the cost of the exhaust, fuel lines and gas tank, the smog related stuff etc,

That stuff is very cheap at high production in the factory - the electric drive train motor controllers, wiring harnesses, and so forth were a swap for that. A lot of those prices on the EV side would come down dramatically as the production plan doubles. Right now, a lot of that (without counting R&D) is amortized across 30,000 unit build plan. The various parts of the drivetrain for the Encore is likely amortized across a build plan in the many hundreds of thousands, as it shares many parts with other Gamma 2 cousins.

I think one of the reactions of the street to the Bolt article is that they think Tesla cannot make the Model 3 at any sort of positive gross margin and hit that price point. The counter to that is that Tesla's production plans are at a substantially higher volume. We're talking 10x the volume. Further, Tesla's costs for the battery pack alone are likely $4,000 cheaper. Their costs for the expensive parts... the inverter, the motor controller, the wiring harnesses, the AC/DC charger are all vastly cheaper than GM's. It doesn't matter that GM makes millions of ICE vehicles - the expensive EV related parts that GM makes is about 75,000 build volume per year, and even those don't really have parts commonality. Tesla, on the other hand is looking at 200,000 to 300,000 EV build volumes for the launch of the Model 3 (including S+X). Sure, the non-EV parts is where Tesla's costs will be higher. But the Bolt for instance has many Bolt only parts and GM can't leverage their cost efficiency on those. GM will have cheaper parts costs on the cheaper parts and likely their labor costs will be also much lower. But overall, since Tesla's costs on the expensive parts are likely much lower than GM's costs on the expensive parts, Tesla will likely be able to have a much lower cost on the Model 3. Plus, Tesla will have many more high profit options to raise ASP and gross margin.

 

[SteveG3]

Here is a whole discussion/thread starting with bills in the German Bundestag in January 2015.

German bill requires CCS and L2 plugs at every new fast charge point.

appreciate the link Rob. planning to look at the thread this weekend.