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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Per many prior discussions, their numbers mean nothing.
They have zero intel on US deliveries. No one does...
Pretty much what I expected. Tesla decided to focus on building AP1 Inventory cars for all markets at the very end of September and start of October until AP2 was ready. We can see those on https://ev-cpo.com/ . In addition to that they also had to build the cars for Europe and Asia (some AP1 some AP2) so obviously there wasn't much time for US custom orders, which the Model S Excel sheet also reflects (almost no production starts in October). And even in early November they still build some US Inventory cars with AP2 as we can see with 172xxx VINs which showed up last week.
I don't think production is an issue, Q4 number will depend on Tesla's ability to actually deliver all those cars in December and also depends on how many Inventory cars were build and how many of those Tesla can sell.
I don't think production is an issue, Q4 number will depend on Tesla's ability to actually deliver all those cars in December and also depends on how many Inventory cars were build and how many of those Tesla can sell.
These numbers actually aren't surprising. If you follow the delivery threads elsewhere on the board, you will see that substantially all US deliveries have been given a December delivery date. I expect huge international deliveries this quarter. December is going to be MONSTROUS for the US. I hope the SCs can find a way to push everything through.
I will say that the AP2 production issue rumor has some legs. If you follow the X delivery threads you'll see a number of people scheduled for November recently had a couple week delays. Reasons given to the recipients from DS were that the factory had Thanksgiving off and that the AP2 hardware was creating some issues on the line. This could be a case of multiple sources repeating the same unverified rumor over and over, but it does warrant some short term caution for Q4 numbers.
I will say that the AP2 production issue rumor has some legs. If you follow the X delivery threads you'll see a number of people scheduled for November recently had a couple week delays. Reasons given to the recipients from DS were that the factory had Thanksgiving off and that the AP2 hardware was creating some issues on the line. This could be a case of multiple sources repeating the same unverified rumor over and over, but it does warrant some short term caution for Q4 numbers.
I understand Tesla does not reveal region wise breakdown of its deliveries so there is no way to verify the US data accuracy. But looking at the last two years of InsideEv US numbers, they are about 50% of the total annual deliveries
PaulRocket
Member
They were fairly accurate and I don't think its fair. Of course no one knows how many cars Tesla delivered but so far InsideEVs estimate has always been a good indicator and I don't think we should close our eyes.
Still, December will be a huge and Tesla still has a good shot at meeting their guidance. They might be able to deliver close to 10,000 vehicles in NA for December.
No time for panic but we should be monitoring the delivery threads very closely this month and look for international delivery numbers.
stealthology
Member
This is what I'd call the 'dumb market rotation'。 Because people think Trump will strengthen banks and big oil and harm all companies that have international supply chains (Which is just about every company), money is moving into banks and oil stocks.
Conversely, it is also believed Trump will allow companies a tax holiday for repatriated cash and lower taxes all around. Thoughts?
Big banks and oil up, everything else stuck in place or down.
A pre-release of delivery figures would likely be very helpful to debunk the noise.
Conversely, it is also believed Trump will allow companies a tax holiday for repatriated cash and lower taxes all around. Thoughts?
Big banks and oil up, everything else stuck in place or down.
A pre-release of delivery figures would likely be very helpful to debunk the noise.
It's like people never learn. We have the same issue every quarter. Take it for what it is, my fidelity loan rate went up overnight not by much but it went up
dennis
Model S Plaid
I have a tour set with my family on 12/20.
If the fudge is 60% (taking in account random factors) then they can easily top 30k and the stock will hit $262.
The regional allocation seems to be about 50% in Q4 of 2015 (total vs. insideev numbers), but maybe this year it is 90:10 because of the election, Brexit, Putin and that soccer team that won. 2016 is a very different year.
The issue is that they can true up the numbers at end of quarter. The intra quarter numbers have a lot of guessing. I tried to find this data before, and many states don't provide such data. Likely, they take a few state's worth of data that they can get and extrapolate while looking at TMC delivery threads.
Clearly, we know that U.S. deliveries were pushed off this quarter. And RHD Model X started production at the end of October. The signature production of these RHD units and initial non-sig batch are probably mid-December delivery. They apparently air-shipped a demo unit:
#16
Note the AP2 hardware. It seems initial Model X RHD for Hong Kong started early November. Probably the RHD units were the last batch before switching back to U.S. production. These are all AP2 vehicles. Unfortunately for them, the factory isn't likely to switch back to RHD production until very late in December and into January, so the HK folks are worried about getting Model X RHD before end of Q1, 2017. Likely there will be a blockbuster amount of sales in HK in Q1 to beat the expiration of the FRT.
What we really don't know is the amount of production that went to China. Anyone have a better guide for that?
Again, we knew already that this quarter was different with AP2 hardware and the situation with the software, they built a lot of overseas vehicles and pretty much no US vehicles from mid October until mid November. That way, many of these overseas vehicles arrive pretty much timed with the release of 8.1 and the U.S. owners have a much shorter time driving around w/o any driver assist software.
With the difficulty of approving new driver assist software in HK, I think Tesla built a lot of Model S, custom orders and demo units of AP1 hardware in early October. That makes a lot of sense, as HK AP2 approval might be very slow in coming. There is strong demand in HK anyways and not having AP2 is not as big of a deal due to timing. It does mean that Model X RHD owners in HK will end up with a longer period w/o driver assist software though.
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How do we know that?
Delivery quotes for the S and the X in the US in the beginning of the quarter were very fast.
Paracelsus
Active Member
I wanted to offer a clarification to my last post. We are exactly in the trading territories where I got creamed in the past - where the intraday trading numbers moved outside the levels of support of converging long term trend lines and I jumped too quickly. The price at close on Friday is much more important because intraday levels disappear on a monthly chart, and daily-closing prices seem to disappear on an annual chart, but prices at the end of the week that are set by two additional days on the calendar over the weekend seem to stay established on the annual charts.........and we are now trading along the convergence of positive and negative charts that have formed over a very long time. If you look at the longer term chart, you can see we are approaching '50-point' move territory in one direction or another. Hopefully Friday's close will be above the '187.50 and increasing' trendline. Disclosure - I have been adding to my long position since February, 2013. I am very grateful that we have managed to accumulate the number of shares we own at this point, but if I would have had a little more patience I would be holding at least 25% more for the same investment. I am also grateful for the help I have received from this board for identifying entry points along the way. Best of luck to all.
racer26
Active Member
I think we can safely assume that if we don't make the 26k deliveries we need to reach guidance, it will not be because of a demand issue. We know that VIN assignments have been happening at a fast enough clip to make the 26k.
From about late July through the end of 3Q16, TSLA was pushing every demand lever they could find to get cars out before Sept 30. We have seen nothing like that this quarter, but they're still maintaining guidance, and the InsideEVs numbers certainly seem to suggest that US deliveries so far this quarter are lackluster to say the least.
There are two main forces I can think of that would yield the data we see.
1) Much more geographic batching than in past quarters. With MX finally unfurling its wings and flying, we know that there are many overseas MX orders to be filled, and so a much greater than normal amount of the quarter's early production could have been for overseas delivery than in past quarters. Additionally, the large demand in China and HK continues to grow, and with a 40% First Registration Tax being imposed on BEVs and PHEVs starting April 1, 2017 in HK, Tesla may have allocated additional vehicles there to capture demand before the tax cuts demand severely. Other overseas regions have similar changes to taxation or incentives in the immediate future as well.
2) AP2 changeover. We know that the factory was expected to be shut down for 2 weeks in 4Q16. What we don't know, is if that 2 weeks has already happened during the changeover or if its happening around christmas time. Makes sense that it would have been done for the AP2 changeover, and maybe we won't see a christmas shutdown. If the AP2 changeover did have some QC issues that slowed the line down longer than the 2 weeks, it could certainly appear in Nov deliveries.
Rumors of buyers having their US delivery dates pushed back would be consistent with either of these, though I admit that the geographic batching was likely well enough defined in advance that it shouldn't have impacted US dates, so I would estimate that it lends some credence to the rumors of AP2 changeover glitches.
The other piece of the puzzle we don't know is how fast the line is capable of operating at max speed. We know we were targeting 2400cars/wk for the end of 4Q16. Can the line go faster than that to compensate for glitches? There must be some upper limit to how fast the line can go, but nobody really knows what it is.
From about late July through the end of 3Q16, TSLA was pushing every demand lever they could find to get cars out before Sept 30. We have seen nothing like that this quarter, but they're still maintaining guidance, and the InsideEVs numbers certainly seem to suggest that US deliveries so far this quarter are lackluster to say the least.
There are two main forces I can think of that would yield the data we see.
1) Much more geographic batching than in past quarters. With MX finally unfurling its wings and flying, we know that there are many overseas MX orders to be filled, and so a much greater than normal amount of the quarter's early production could have been for overseas delivery than in past quarters. Additionally, the large demand in China and HK continues to grow, and with a 40% First Registration Tax being imposed on BEVs and PHEVs starting April 1, 2017 in HK, Tesla may have allocated additional vehicles there to capture demand before the tax cuts demand severely. Other overseas regions have similar changes to taxation or incentives in the immediate future as well.
2) AP2 changeover. We know that the factory was expected to be shut down for 2 weeks in 4Q16. What we don't know, is if that 2 weeks has already happened during the changeover or if its happening around christmas time. Makes sense that it would have been done for the AP2 changeover, and maybe we won't see a christmas shutdown. If the AP2 changeover did have some QC issues that slowed the line down longer than the 2 weeks, it could certainly appear in Nov deliveries.
Rumors of buyers having their US delivery dates pushed back would be consistent with either of these, though I admit that the geographic batching was likely well enough defined in advance that it shouldn't have impacted US dates, so I would estimate that it lends some credence to the rumors of AP2 changeover glitches.
The other piece of the puzzle we don't know is how fast the line is capable of operating at max speed. We know we were targeting 2400cars/wk for the end of 4Q16. Can the line go faster than that to compensate for glitches? There must be some upper limit to how fast the line can go, but nobody really knows what it is.
If you look at the production start dates in the available order tracking for the Model S, the October dates all seem to be for Europe. Therefore, even if the quotes at beginning of quarter were short, reality was that they didn't build U.S. vehicles. Same goes for the Model X tracking spreadsheet too.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I feel your frustration on this forum @Value Ev . Its just like us longs trying to argue our point on SA or to Spiegel.
Technically you are correct, these numbers are not a good sign for Q4. But we longs live on the hope for the better, just like you shorts live on the hope of a TSLA collapse.
Based on some delivery posts, I think we can safely assume that the factory had Thanksgiving week off. This was told to multiple people and doesn't seem to be subject to rumormongering. The delay reason being given as "AP2 issues" is the rumor part, though with InsideEVs using this as well (they have sources too) - the rumor might be true.
I think the second week off will be end of year/Christmas to focus on deliveries. I think we've gotten reports of the factory being up in early October so I don't think there was a break then.
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