Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Intl Professor]

Did I make a mistake in investing now, when the stock is so overpriced compared to the risk?

Welcome to the forum. I'm one of the least credible responders on stock price and probably view things in overly simple terms. But here's a stab anyway.

If you take traditional measures of price/risk you might have made a mistake. I think most of us here think we bought based on the potential price because of the need for environmental protection, the market looking forward to addressing that need, the quality of the product (performance, economy, as well as style), and Elon Musk's vision and track record. Right after the reveal of the M3 on the first trading day I bought a few shares at $250. The stock price went up and then has struggled. I am happy nonetheless because no less than Ron Baron, the investor who expects the price to go up 10-30 times within the next 10-15 years (I could be misquoting the numbers here, but the drift is correct). Baron, as you may have gathered from previous discussion is one of those investors who really has an eye for detail and great perspective on what Tesla is doing—and probably more access than most as he has 100s of millions invested in the company.

By inspection many of us here think the stock is cheap, despite a lot of pressure from traders who may, or may not, have successfully depressed the perceived value of the stock. From my perspective you did not make a mistake buying now.

But hold tight and don't fall into the trap of short-term trading. That is dangerous as some very successful traders here will advise you more authoritatively. Usually the rule is don't invest more than you're willing to lose. I am long since 2010 with an average price of purchase just under $40, including the last one, but no dry powder since we're hoping to buy a Tesla next year.

We're not supposed to engage in political talk here. Always good advice. I shall try to message you privately about the recent election. (Look for a button—boxed arrow pointing down--at the top of the page which will turn red. Or, use that to get my attention.)

Edit: The usual wise heads above have already given you more detailed and more important clues.

 

[Value Ev]

Uh, huh. For the record, I already have a bridge.

That is good to hear.

I hope that it protects you from rain and harsh weather and that you don't get distracted when people cross over it.

Enjoy it and keep safe!

 

[3Victoria]

@I Am Rolling: Seems like an excellent time to buy in. I am fairly fresh newby, but the SP moves in very mysterious ways, likely due to manipulation. After good news it can fall, and after bad news it can rise. Staying long will pay off ... but you will be losing opportunity cost in the short term. While the longs are confident of a large upswing, but its the timing is anyone's guess.

 

[Krugerrand]

Umm, no. Just skip the "pie" quarter and look at Q1 and Q2 of this year. There were pretty big misses.

Right! Because the 'pie' quarter didn't happen. So we skip it.

But we should be happy, electrification of cars is still going strong. Look at these Volt numbers. I see a lot of the new Volts on roads here. They look pretty sleek too. GM is up 5%+ today, while TSLA is down ~4%.
View attachment 204293

Yeah, would you look at that. Tesla to date this year has sold 2,500 more really, really expensive EVs than the Volt economy version. Oh, wait. I forgot. Can't include the numbers of S's delivered in the 'pie' quarter. We're just skipping that one.

Be sure to report to us how GM stock faired on Monday vs TSLA. To be fair and impartial, eh? So we can take you seriously.

 

[myusername]

It is a good thing their numbers mean nothing otherwise it may have an affect on the stock price today.

Of course when they announced great numbers earlier this year, no one seemed to discredit them then. Go figure.

umm... the insideevs numbers are nuts... unless they're shipping 80% overseas... this quarter is screwed... or of course insideevs is wrong... since all bad news against tesla is wrong and all good news simply justifies $1T... almost there!

 

[winfield100]

Federal credit:
"For vehicles acquired after December 31, 2009, the credit is equal to $2,500 plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. The total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500."

or where did this number come from?

GM Volt, 16kWh battery
$2,500 + $417 + (11* $417) = $2,500 + $417 + $4,587 = $7,504
or
$7,504 (capped at $7,500)

 

[tslagreen]

Great commentary with pretty sophisticated analysis on this thread. I look at more macro issues and am a long shareholder (looking 5-10 years out) and see Tesla as THE stock to own during that time period. [Maybe on the wrong thread considering this a short-term stock price blog.] I have owned Tsla stock for

Welcome to the forum. I'm one of the least credible responders on stock price and probably view things in overly simple terms. But here's a stab anyway.

If you take traditional measures of price/risk you might have made a mistake. I think most of us here think we bought based on the potential price because of the need for environmental protection, the market looking forward to addressing that need, the quality of the product (performance, economy, as well as style), and Elon Musk's vision and track record. Right after the reveal of the M3 on the first trading day I bought a few shares at $250. The stock price went up and then has struggled. I am happy nonetheless because no less than Ron Baron, the investor who expects the price to go up 10-30 times within the next 10-15 years (I could be misquoting the numbers here, but the drift is correct). Baron, as you may have gathered from previous discussion is one of those investors who really has an eye for detail and great perspective on what Tesla is doing—and probably more access than most as he has 100s of millions invested in the company.

By inspection many of us here think the stock is cheap, despite a lot of pressure from traders who may, or may not, have successfully depressed the perceived value of the stock. From my perspective you did not make a mistake buying now.

But hold tight and don't fall into the trap of short-term trading. That is dangerous as some very successful traders here will advise you more authoritatively. Usually the rule is don't invest more than you're willing to lose. I am long since 2010 with an average price of purchase just under $40, including the last one, but no dry powder since we're hoping to buy a Tesla next year.

We're not supposed to engage in political talk here. Always good advice. I shall try to message you privately about the recent election. (Look for a button—boxed arrow pointing down--at the top of the page which will turn red. Or, use that to get my attention.)

Edit: The usual wise heads above have already given you more detailed and more important clues.

 

[tslagreen]

I have owned Tsla stock since 2013 and also drive a Model S 70D. I can tell you as a Tesla stock owner and product user that I am totally confident in the long term stock price and product. Short term variations in the stock are somewhat unpredictable subject to the overall macro economy. [I realize this is a short-term SP thread, but it is also the thread on TMC with the most activity.] I don't think any MAJOR boost in the SP will occur until the first deliveries of the Model 3, revelations that the company is cash-flow positive [exclusive of the sale of ZEV credits] on a sustained basis, and/or significant roll-out of new technology related to Solar-City solar roof designs and installations. That being said, I wouldn't want to invest in any other company at this point considering the massive projected growth for the company, the revolutionary products that it is selling, and (let's be honest) the fun and excitement of being a Tsla-head.

As a driver, I can honestly provide several anecdotal examples of why, to me, Tsla is the next Aapl. First, consumer enthusiasm and loyalty. Second, product innovation and third, a charismatic CEO and innovator. I am struck by how interested people are in Tesla and in particular, how kids/teens are struck and enthused by Tesla and sometimes more informed about what Tesla is, even more so than many adults [good sign for the future!]

Finally, I have traveled to other countries and seen Tesla expansion first hand, namely Mexico City and London. While I was there I saw one Tesla driving in the streets of each country in addition to the retail store fronts. [Not much perhaps, but I did not see any other American cars in London other than Ford - no GMs, Jeeps, etc., to put it into perspective.]

Great things are ahead and I am in it for the long haul [at least 10 years plus]. Best of luck to investors.

 

[mmd]

"I have to choose between a Model S and a Bolt"
- No One Ever

Steve Wozniak plans to ditch his Tesla for a Chevy Bolt – The Mercury News

 

[vgrinshpun]

Well, lets talk about you being reckless with data...
Where do you get the price elasticity of 10x for a half price in cost?

It is only preposterous if you don't understand the cross-sell data which you obviously don't.

This is just proof that you are just here to troll and hype the stock.
Let me guess, you are long TSLA.

Well, yet another post with proclamations that are not backed up by any data, just filled with incendiary statements. As if you were trolling...

My 10x conclusion comes from data collected from the following websites.

Sales Data: GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Price Data: New Cars, Used Cars, Car Reviews and Pricing | Edmunds.com

Summary:

 

[Krugerrand]

Steve Wozniak plans to ditch his Tesla for a Chevy Bolt – The Mercury News

So he's the trend setter for the world then? Mass exodus of Model S owners to the Chevy Bolt? Do we need a poll? Otherwise, why do we care? Are you suggesting that his car choice is going to move the SP short term?

Look, squirrel! Right? When nobody's buying your shtick, try a new one?

 

[kehlKroos]

Well, yet another post with proclamations that are not backed up by any data, just filled with incendiary statements. As if you were trolling...

My 10x conclusion comes from data collected from the following websites.

Sales Data: GOOD CAR BAD CAR
Price Data: New Cars, Used Cars, Car Reviews and Pricing | Edmunds.com

Summary:

View attachment 204314

In US market, every 5000$ decrease for a same car will double the sale

 

[EinSV]

I have owned Tsla stock since 2013 and also drive a Model S 70D. I can tell you as a Tesla stock owner and product user that I am totally confident in the long term stock price and product. Short term variations in the stock are somewhat unpredictable subject to the overall macro economy. [I realize this is a short-term SP thread, but it is also the thread on TMC with the most activity.] I don't think any MAJOR boost in the SP will occur until the first deliveries of the Model 3, revelations that the company is cash-flow positive [exclusive of the sale of ZEV credits] on a sustained basis, and/or significant roll-out of new technology related to Solar-City solar roof designs and installations. That being said, I wouldn't want to invest in any other company at this point considering the massive projected growth for the company, the revolutionary products that it is selling, and (let's be honest) the fun and excitement of being a Tsla-head.

As a driver, I can honestly provide several anecdotal examples of why, to me, Tsla is the next Aapl. First, consumer enthusiasm and loyalty. Second, product innovation and third, a charismatic CEO and innovator. I am struck by how interested people are in Tesla and in particular, how kids/teens are struck and enthused by Tesla and sometimes more informed about what Tesla is, even more so than many adults [good sign for the future!]

Finally, I have traveled to other countries and seen Tesla expansion first hand, namely Mexico City and London. While I was there I saw one Tesla driving in the streets of each country in addition to the retail store fronts. [Not much perhaps, but I did not see any other American cars in London other than Ford - no GMs, Jeeps, etc., to put it into perspective.]

Great things are ahead and I am in it for the long haul [at least 10 years plus]. Best of luck to investors.

Welcome to TMC, @tslagreen. Great to have you here.

 

[madodel]

So he's the trend setter for the world then? Mass exodus of Model S owners to the Chevy Bolt? Do we need a poll? Otherwise, why do we care? Are you suggesting that his car choice is going to move the SP short term?

Look, squirrel! Right? When nobody's buying your shtick, try a new one?

Well AAPL has been down of late. Maybe he needs to economize by going to a cheaper car. ;-)

 

[myusername]

Moderator-deleted material from a banned poster

luca... let's assume for sake of argument there's no outlying variables with insideevs' numbers... then in Q3 total US sales according to them were 14939... making the remainder of the ~24500 sold in Q3 overseas or 9561... or 39%.

so far insideevs is reporting 3950 for US... 39% of that is 1540... so proportionally to Q3 that's a total of 5940... insideevs reported 7389 for US in the months of July and August... so adding 39% of that for overseas that's 10270 for July and August...

so first to months of Q3 compared to first two months of Q4 is:

5940 - 10270 = -4330

to make up the difference for first 2 months of Q3 vs first 2 months of Q4 they'd need to have delivered the 1540 + 5940 = 7480...

total overseas / total expected from last quarter to reach 25k:

7480 / 10270 = 72.8%

so I was off by 7.2% for a random estimate on a stupid message board... I think all of that above was 5th grade math.

 

[Value Ev]

umm... the insideevs numbers are nuts... unless they're shipping 80% overseas... this quarter is screwed... or of course insideevs is wrong... since all bad news against tesla is wrong and all good news simply justifies $1T... almost there!

You forgot two things:

1. Someone should audit Insideev (like people here wanted to audit the Mark S. hedge fund)
2. An evil short got to someone at Insidev - my guess is Big Oil or Big Ol' Dirty Coal

 

[postpast]

Out of curiosity; August 1st price estimates: anyone?

 

[Intl Professor]

Out of curiosity; August 1st price estimates: anyone?

$400-$1,000 but I can't decide on the year.

 

[Value Ev]

My 10x conclusion comes from data collected from the following websites.

Sales Data: GOOD CAR BAD CAR

Canada? Really that is the best you can do?

Price Data: New Cars, Used Cars, Car Reviews and Pricing | Edmunds.com


As I expected, you are cherry picking data again.

Here:
Lexus LS: MSRP 72k 2016 sales YTD 4,905
Lexus RC: MSRP 40k 2016 sales YTD 10,123
Lexus CT: MSRP 31k 2016 sales YTD 7,900

BMW 7: MSRP 81k 2015 Sales: 9,292
BMW 2: MSRP: 31k 2015 Sales: 13,000

MB S: MSRP 97k 2015 Sales: 21,934
MB E: MSRP 52k 2015 Sales: 49,738


Oh look, there is no 10x for a 2x difference in price. Surprise (says no one who understands the auto market)


I feel bad for you that you find facts incendiary and you draw conclusions from cherry picked data.

 

[luca]

Moderator-deleted material from a banned poster