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Shhhhhh. Some people here get upset with analysis if they don't like the answer.
Just say 26k units this quarter and that volume increases 10x for every 50% in price decrease and you will be fine.
P.S. coming in so close to that estimate was pretty impressive.
Well, you might want to tell that to Tesla
They originally said 80k-90k this year, and they could have got to 160k units with just a modest price decrease.
Or with an even smaller decrease, they certainly could have nailed the 90k number at least.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
I know it might be just me but is this thread going down hill.....just a tad recently?
I've added quite a few to my ignore list....
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
I know it might be just me but is this thread going down hill.....just a tad recently?
This is what happens when you are not getting a technical "hammer time" and are drowning your sorrows with Miller Time!
I know it might be just me but is this thread going down hill.....just a tad recently?
The stock has gone down over the last few days so the longs are nervous and the shorts are giddy because of inside-ev release. The thread always tanks when that happens.
You are much more balanced in your views than most folks here. What do you think of Q4 deliveries?
Thanks. Looking forward to a bright future with Tesla.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Elon Musk and SpaceX on South Park tonight. No mention of Tesla so far so I suppose this will be interpreted as a total collapse, expect TSLA SP to be at $10 tomorrow.
Moderator:
IF anyone has anything remotely productive to post, feel free to do so here.
If not, it is my understanding Seeking Alpha is Seeking Material.
IF anyone has anything remotely productive to post, feel free to do so here.
If not, it is my understanding Seeking Alpha is Seeking Material.
I don't know if that article is meant to be a positive or a negative for TSLA.... The idea is to sell the over-performing sectors and buy the under-performing ones, right?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There is a simple reason, and a simple solution, but apparently we aren't allowed to discuss it. Very odd.I know it might be just me but is this thread going down hill.....just a tad recently?
Here's what I'm thinking about right now.... Before the SolarCity vote, trading bottomed at 179 briefly although the daily charts show it as 181.
We're at 181 and change now. I have a feeling 179 may get tested tomorrow. Will it bounce off it like it did last time? If it does, it could form an inverted head and shoulders.
We're at 181 and change now. I have a feeling 179 may get tested tomorrow. Will it bounce off it like it did last time? If it does, it could form an inverted head and shoulders.
Honestly, I don't know. We know of about 4000 cars delivered in the US so far, and estimating 2000 in EU. Only the last few days of EU deliveries were from cars produced this quarter. Everything else was from the pipeline (extrapolating from the Norwegian individual delivered VINs, < 160k for S, <17k for X) That makes me think overseas orders so far were probably the rest of the pipeline (3500). That leaves 16k cars to be delivered in December. It's possible, but it is also fragile. One severe winterstorm that disrupts shipping logistics at an importune time and we could miss big. Not sure if the market is in the mood to forgive Elon even with such a good excuse. They haven't really afforded his companies the benefit of the doubt lately.
Do they have the demand? There was a passing reference in this thread about incentives that are going away soon in Hong Kong and mainland China. If that is true, then it is very plausible they are experiencing a lot of demand there. Absence of that, I think the demand really will have to come from the US. I don't see European deliveries hit 6000 or more this quarter.
I do think they have US demand. The mood is fairly reasonable given the election and basic economy remains strong for the moderate to high earners that are buying Model S/X. Also, I think the non-urgency with which Tesla approaches the Supercharger policy change is a good sign they don't need the demand lever.
At the same time, I can see a case where Tesla decides internally. Screw the delivery guidance, we go all out for margin (and profitability). They can be profitable even with missing guidance, so why not?.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
There really isn't a single person out there in twitterland or in the news that has anything positive to say about Tesla. So I would say we will probably test and fail going lower. I could care less at this juncture as I am in for the long haul. People have now resorted to commenting on Elon's weight, hair plugs, and anything else they can throw at him. For some crazy reason, he is one of the most hated CEOs out there at the moment. He garnishes no respect, just ridicule.
there was a post yesterday of nothing but a 5yr chart graphic... it showed a trend line with three touches only... honestly... I think it's very informative. charts can be considered stupid... or be considered as a reflection of stress in either longs or shorts... the chart showed the current PS approaching what is the remaining long term uptrend... in my charts I saw that at approximately $183.50... it seemed to break that today and when it re-approached it, it was rejected.
i think right now... after a 3 year double head and shoulders... and testing this trendline... there's got to be a significant portion of longs that are at a stress point... whatever anyone thinks... this stock is overvalued by metrics... but grossly undervalued by potential... I remain short on this until sub $120 because I think there's a number of investors that are simply not making money or losing money at this point and the short/medium term upside is dismal... and I think that's what the long term charts are reflecting.
Today's drop in TSLA was primarily the result of sector rebalancing. It's the reason why the DOW was up and the NASDAQ was down today. It's hard to believe that TSLA goes down because the price of oil goes up, but that's the crazy way the market works sometimes.
WWW.shortalnalytics.com says that 60% of TSLA transactions were conducted by shorts today, so even if the morning's drop was due to the rebalancing, I suspect the shorts gave a push in the afternoon. Neither the NASDAQ nor other tech stocks I saw had the late afternoon significant drop that TSLA had today.
The good news about sector rebalancing is that it usually is a temporary dip for TSLA. We had two of them last month and still managed to break 198 last week. The reason why it tends to be a temporary dip is because the market is not retreating and because the company's ability to make money has not been materially impacted by the oil rise which set off the sector rebalancing. In fact, I could argue with one arm tied behind my back that the rise in oil will benefit Tesla over time. Consumers have just as much money to spend after a sector rebalancing. Tesla remains a rare high-growth company with a potential trillion dollar capitalization ahead of it years from now. As Tesla demonstrates its ability to deliver, buyers will return. Count on it.
WWW.shortalnalytics.com says that 60% of TSLA transactions were conducted by shorts today, so even if the morning's drop was due to the rebalancing, I suspect the shorts gave a push in the afternoon. Neither the NASDAQ nor other tech stocks I saw had the late afternoon significant drop that TSLA had today.
The good news about sector rebalancing is that it usually is a temporary dip for TSLA. We had two of them last month and still managed to break 198 last week. The reason why it tends to be a temporary dip is because the market is not retreating and because the company's ability to make money has not been materially impacted by the oil rise which set off the sector rebalancing. In fact, I could argue with one arm tied behind my back that the rise in oil will benefit Tesla over time. Consumers have just as much money to spend after a sector rebalancing. Tesla remains a rare high-growth company with a potential trillion dollar capitalization ahead of it years from now. As Tesla demonstrates its ability to deliver, buyers will return. Count on it.
SunCatcher
Member
"Elon Musk beat out Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and Steve Jobs as the most admired tech leader among 700 founders surveyed by VC firm First Round Capital. Twenty-three percent of founders wrote in the SpaceX and Tesla CEO’s name when asked whom they admired the most; 10 percent said Bezos, 6 percent said Zuckerberg and only 5 percent of respondents wrote in Jobs."
Survey says: Elon Musk is still the most admired tech leader among founders
Survey says: Elon Musk is still the most admired tech leader among founders
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