Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
I subscribe to a trading newsletter called Terry's Tips.....I think is relevant in a more generic sense to our discussions here regarding TSLA manipulation....
....themselves for discovering that stock prices on option expiration days were highly likely to be extremely close to strike prices, far closer than they would be on a random basis. They offered no explanation for this confusing but persistent pattern...

a question from a noob, whom will stay away from options tho. Is the above bolded related to "max-pain"
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
i have a gut feeling that it is somehow related, but a queasy feeling about placing money on that feeling (may be seasonal flu tho or bad potatoe salad)
 
a question from a noob, whom will stay away from options tho. Is the above bolded related to "max-pain"
Max Pain | Maximum-Pain.com
i have a gut feeling that it is somehow related, but a queasy feeling about placing money on that feeling (may be seasonal flu tho or bad potatoe salad)

(edit- Yes, I think the observation is trying to point out that if max pain was 200, the closing price would be within a few cents, ie 199.95 something we have witnessed multiple times during low volume periods. If it was more random you might expect 202 or 197)

Maximum pain is the number in which the largest amount of calls and puts will expire worthless. It's maximum pain for the option holders and ideal for the option sellers (generally speaking).

The regular weeklies are not as important to the MM's because the amount (open interest) of calls and puts are significantly lower than monthly expirations. Max pain is not always a good indicator of where the stock will settle, this week I have absolutely 0 interest in buying puts because of a 205 max pain.

This metric only pertains to the ratio of puts vs calls, their dollar values and time decay. Has nothing to do with news/financials etc.
This is my understanding, I bet somebody can explain it better and maybe I can learn something too.

The only reason I would buy puts within the coming days is if I had high expectations of a big deliveries miss or wanted to hedge.

Even though options are not a good idea for everyone to trade, I have learned a fair bit about why stocks move in some of the ways that they do. IE as you pointed out, being pinned to max pain. I think it would serve you well to understand how they work.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Nate the Great
Surely NVIDIA is a bit over-cooked for the moment?

I was thinking along the same lines. I am guessing there will be a slight "correction" over the next couple of days that would allow me to jump in at 110-12ish. The expectation seems to favor a positive Q4 earning report for NVDA (They have their hands on many different markets and are Tesla's primary AP hardware supplier). That would be a nice "pop" to catch in the first week of February. I am speculating btw. I am no expert.

I was thinking the same thing at $80, then $90, then $100 ;)
 
Me too, up by 20% finally. Still holding strong Jan 2018 calls 100%. Where is Trendtrader? I hope you still holding your calls.
I'm doing really well all across the board on all my calls as well as common stock
Jan 2019 $300 calls up 13.7% from buying price
Jan 2019 $250 calls up 30 to 34%
Jan 2018 $260 calls up 44%
I also have Jan 2018 $250, $290 and $300 calls and my losses in those calls pared down to only 50% or so from earlier losses of 90%
Common stock I am up 8% or so from buying price of $202.50 on 12/19/16
Thanks for asking
Also, I'm lending several thousand shares to shorts through Fidelity and making some change on that as well
So, all in all life is good in Teslaland
 
There is not a whole lot to say about stock performance of Tesla since PapaFox basically covers it all extremely well
Bottom line: TSLA is slated to do extremely well over the next several quarters to years and the only smart thing to do is to back up the truckk (which I did on 12/19/16 at $202.5) and sit tight
Technically as well as fundamentally this stock is slated for a huge run which will be the stuff of legends and shorts' worst nightmare
When a stock acts the way TSLA is acting then my strategy is simple:
I load up the truck
I sit tight
Rest is conversation

PS: TSLA is the stock for the next several years just like AAPL was from 2004 to 2015
Shorts will get decimated and true believers will be hugely rewarded
This stock has the highest potential than any other company I know of
I will not sell my shares. Period
 
Last edited:
I alerted everyone a little over a week ago that I had sold my J17 calls and to prepare for liftoff, I think TSLA has finished green every day since. I waited as long as I could to sell but wanted to move the cash elsewhere. I've got plenty of shares so I didn't miss out. I don't have much need to follow the short term movements holding all shares and won't have as much time to read every post here short term. I'll check in when I have time, congrats to those longs who have held on. I'm confident my shares will be worth 7 figures in the future but I'm still not sure if that will be more enjoyable than watching all the trolls and shorts go bust/silent.
 
No it's not.

But for sugars and giggles, name one other company disrupting TWO trillion dollar industries. I'll wait.

Doubt he'll come up with anything, but I can name one :D SpaceX :D Not publicly traded, but disrupting on a massive scale and adding together all of the satellite, rocket etc business may almost qualify in that industry scale :) We'll see in the long run.

With regards to myusername, I think you guys bash him a bit too much. Yes he has a clear point that he thinks the discounting of future earnings should be at a higher percentage due to execution risk. We all here differ on the % we use. I'd for example use something like 5-7% to do the DCF calculation, he most likely uses 20-30% because of the extreme execution risk. So we end up with different present value for TSLA and our thesis differ. However the good part is that as the future earnings turn into present earnings the obfuscation of discounting % disappears and we both will converge on the actual price. He's just tons more conservative than we are and doesn't believe in the full growth plan as we do. But he's one of the most reasonable short representatives I've seen here.

I'd also like to point out that it was him who pointed our attention to the recent step-ladder behaviour that was actually something you could trade on (and I have making very nice gains in options). So he can be bullish as well and while not all his predictions have panned out a fair number have been reasonably close and technically articulated. So I'd say he does provide a valuable counterpoint to the generic enthusiasm and is far less trolling than most shorts we've had come through here.
 
Just a thought; Could the long-holding institutional investors have some interest in pushing the SP nearer to the SP of last year-end? Just to avoid reporting loss on their long term position year-on-year.

A push towards the $240, could be done without putting up to much capital, since it would be assisted by some short covering.

On the other hand, - this also indicates that support would stop after January 1.
 
No it's not.

But for sugars and giggles, name one other company disrupting TWO trillion dollar industries. I'll wait.
I don't know of one. that's just it... Tesla hasn't disrupted anything yet... you have either disrupted something or not... you aren't "disrupting"... it's not a present tense thing... it might be disruptive in the future... but it can't be said that an 80k/yr car company has disrupted an 80m/yr industry... and it also can't be said that a less than 1% total worldwide EV sales has disrupted anything.

has interest been sparked?... yes... did Tesla grow from 50k to ~80k from 2015 to 2016?... yes... but that is still NOTHING compared to the growth that is required for anyone to declare Tesla having actually disrupted anything.

and what's the second trillion dollar industry you're speaking of?... Energy?

There are plenty of other companies building EVs:

3 electric cars you’ve never heard of that dominated the market in China this year

I bet you don't think they're disruptive like Tesla... right?

listen man... the only difference between Tesla and a research lab is... someone gave Tesla $8b to play around with and Elon spent it creating a marketing campaign.

but quite frankly... i'm tired of debating all this stuff... I think it's just a distraction and some ONE is sitting around watching a few people bicker about it while they draw a line on a chart and have the stock follow it.
 
  • Disagree
Reactions: dennis
Just a thought; Could the long-holding institutional investors have some interest in pushing the SP nearer to the SP of last year-end? Just to avoid reporting loss on their long term position year-on-year.

A push towards the $240, could be done without putting up to much capital, since it would be assisted by some short covering.

On the other hand, - this also indicates that support would stop after January 1.

This is an interesting perspective. There is a good chance, if the support for this is indeed real, that after January 1 it will be replaced by the buying pressure due to Q4 deliveries + some short covering.

I am not saying that this will necessarily happen, but if short sellers will continue to hold their positions as they did so far (this could be relatively easy to monitor by just taking real time snap shots of shares available to borrow at large brokerages), and Q4 deliveries happen to be as good as I think they'll be (27k +), we can push into the ATH before any significant short covering. In such case I think that significant run-up above ATH before the Q4 ER is not out of the picture.
 
I don't know of one. that's just it... Tesla hasn't disrupted anything yet... you have either disrupted something or not... you aren't "disrupting"... it's not a present tense thing... it might be disruptive in the future... but it can't be said that an 80k/yr car company has disrupted an 80m/yr industry... and it also can't be said that a less than 1% total worldwide EV sales has disrupted anything.

has interest been sparked?... yes... did Tesla grow from 50k to ~80k from 2015 to 2016?... yes... but that is still NOTHING compared to the growth that is required for anyone to declare Tesla having actually disrupted anything.

and what's the second trillion dollar industry you're speaking of?... Energy?

There are plenty of other companies building EVs:

3 electric cars you’ve never heard of that dominated the market in China this year

I bet you don't think they're disruptive like Tesla... right?

listen man... the only difference between Tesla and a research lab is... someone gave Tesla $8b to play around with and Elon spent it creating a marketing campaign.

but quite frankly... i'm tired of debating all this stuff... I think it's just a distraction and some ONE is sitting around watching a few people bicker about it while they draw a line on a chart and have the stock follow it.

None of these companies are single handedly dominating automotive market segment they are selling into, like being top seller among other electric AND ICE models for two years in a row, taking more than 30% of the segment sales, and none forcing major automobile manufacturers making 180 on electrification, one after another. Tesla does. If this is not a disruption, nothing is.

And BTW, what makes you believe that Krugerrand is a man?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.