Some traditional automakers will not survive the transition to EVs.
What ICE makers will fail?
When do they become short targets?
What ICE makers will fail?
When do they become short targets?
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I have thought about shorting companies like GM that I don't think will survive the transition to EVs (which will happen sooner than they think). But I decided I can make more money just buying more TSLA shares and LEAPS.
My first target would be Toyota, I don't think they'll go BK but their *insane* focus on H2 cars is going to result in a substantial loss of market cap.
But I'm not actually going to do it, would rather put it long TSLA.
could you simply use insideEV's data?2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
In this post, I come around to a nice way to rank automakers for how well positioned they are for the EV disruption. Simply rank them based on EVs as a percent of total vehicle sales. This could be on a unit sale or revenue basis. Either way, if you are selling disproportionately more EVs today than the market as a whole, you are in a position to gain market share as the EV market grows.
Those on the bottom of the list will find it increasing harder to catch up in the future. So they are on a path to lose market share.
If anyone cares to pull this data together, that would be much appreciated. Thanks!
Yeah, that gives us the numerator in unit. The other piece we need is the total vehicles (EVs and non-EVs) for the denominator.could you simply use insideEV's data?
i put that in a spreadsheet
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard
trying to get battery size for each or avg battery size for Tesla X and S for the "gigawatts/year needed..
Target platinum futures. Platinum is used in emissions controls. However, it is not as effective against NOx emissions as palladium.
As MPG targets get higher, high combustion temp turbo engines become more common, and EV technology increases, the demand for platinum will continue to falter as rhodium and palladium must replace platinum.
i'm making such a spreadsheet. should I guesstimate Tesla's have avg of 75kW battery?Yeah, that gives us the numerator in unit. The other piece we need is the total vehicles (EVs and non-EVs) for the denominator.
I'm glad you mentioned battery size. If we had that, it could provide a similar ratio, kWh per vehicle ( EVs and non-EVs included). This metric naturally gives more weight to EV maker that sell bigger battery vehicles, less weight to PHEVs and HEVs, and no weight to ICEVs. In principle, automakers that are delivering more kWh per vehicle are building out a stronger battery supply chain. Scaling up battery supply will be a major challenge, but some makers are ahead of the curve while others lag.
So you produce these scorecards? They are very helpful. If you like the ratios I'm proposing, feel free to publish that too. I think they could attract some positive attention in the media. It at least provides more context for the EV sales numbers.
Hmm, I would think the average is more in the 80 to 90 kWh range, so perhaps 85.i'm making such a spreadsheet. should I guesstimate Tesla's have avg of 75kW battery?
(how do you make a spreadsheet shareable? as a computer nerd since 1968, i am woefully ignorant in some such areas)(and non hackable)
tell me how this looks pleaseHmm, I would think the average is more in the 80 to 90 kWh range, so perhaps 85.
I've tried Google drive once. I'd like to find something a little easier. Perhaps others have recommendations.
What about Fiat/Chrysler? I think next year or so might be a good time to start a small short position in one of these old established ICE automakers, the trick is to find out which company is the most exposed to this change.