Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla

[mspohr]

It's very bad to have a social apex predator. For a stable ecosystem, an apex predator has to *control its own population*, which is traditionally achieved by being highly territorial and antisocial. (Think tigers or mountain lions.) Without population control, the apex predator destroys its own food supply and environment, and then dies out.

Which is obviously exactly what humans are doing.

Humans have a way out of this otherwise-inevitable trap because we invented artificial birth control (yay condoms) but there are deranged religious groups which are still trying to wreck everything.

Controlling population is a simplistic solution to the problems of pollution and mindless consumption. The Earth can support many more people if we limit greed driven consumption and stop raising animals for food. Renewables offer an abundance of clean energy. Vegan diet can support 10x current population with much lower environmental degradation. Just need to stop extractive industry.

 

[neroden]

Controlling population is a simplistic solution

Uh, no. Learn some ecology. Look up "exponential growth".

I didn't specify any exact number for the Earth's carrying capacity, and I won't -- but no ecology can support unlimited exponential growth of a single species for very long. This is basic science.

Thankfully, the solution is available and at hand. Liberate women, give them control over their own lives and access to birth control, and the population growth rate promptly drops to approximately 0 within a generation or two.

The only opposition comes from certain male-run right-wing religious groups, which want to force women to have the maximum number of unwanted children. I know of such groups within Christianity (these groups exist in Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox varieties), Judaism, Islam (they exist in both Sunni and Shia varieties), and Hinduism. In all of these major religions there are also strains of the religion which do NOT agree and think women should be allowed to not have unwanted children. But the "force women to be brood mares" movement is alive and well. :-(

A few generations ago, China did the stupidest thing imaginable, by trying to implement a "one child policy" *WITHOUT* providing access to birth control or sex education. This obviously didn't work (how were people supposed to comply?!?) They are now, FINALLY, providing sex ed and birth control access, but only within the last ten years -- they're way behind Europe and the US.

 

[mspohr]

Uh, no. Learn some ecology. Look up "exponential growth".

I didn't specify any exact number for the Earth's carrying capacity, and I won't -- but no ecology can support unlimited exponential growth of a single species for very long. This is basic science.

Thankfully, the solution is available and at hand. Liberate women, give them control over their own lives and access to birth control, and the population growth rate promptly drops to 0 within a generation or two. The only opposition comes from certain male-run right-wing religious groups, which want to force women to have the maximum number of unwanted children. I know of such groups within Christianity (these groups exist in Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox varieties), Judaism, Islam (they exist in both Sunni and Shia varieties), and Hinduism.

It's somewhat rude to tell me to "learn some ecology" since this assumes I am ignorant.
I am also not advocating unlimited exponential growth.
Population control too easily slips into racism and eugenics.
There are very few advocating for unwanted children (and even fewer listening) but this does stoke fear in some of the unwashed masses taking over.
Education is the best form of natural birth control and the world is rapidly approaching zero growth without coercive regimes.

 

[neroden]

It's somewhat rude to tell me to "learn some ecology" since this assumes I am ignorant.
I am also not advocating unlimited exponential growth.

Oh, OK. From your knee-jerk response to my comment, I thought you were advocating it.

Like Ibn Saud with his >100 children advocated unlimited exponential population growth.

There are very few advocating for unwanted children (and even fewer listening)

No, actually there are lots of them. The entire Saudi government, for example.

More locally, *RIGHT NOW*, the Trump administration is doing its best to remove contraceptive access for as many people as they can, and is promoting fearmongering anti-contraception messages. They want to force women to have unwanted pregnancies. (This is even their *official reason* for opposing contraception: they openly claim that the government has a legitimate interest in promoting population growth!!!!)

And people are listening, unfortunately. Lots of people believe the religious-group lies about contraception. They're claiming that condoms are unreliable (condoms used properly are >98% reliable), they're claiming that hormonal birth control causes cancer (it doesn't), etc. etc.

They are not only suppressing accurate sex education, they are spreading disinformation in order to cause more unwanted pregnancies.

And then after the women have unwanted pregnancies -- even if they've been *raped by a family member* -- they are trying to force them to give birth. Very evil case going on in Texas right now. Extremely brave girl who fled from abusive parents in Central America to get to the US specifically to get an abortion. Went through the entire Texas "judicial permission" process. ICE is unconstitutionally preventing her from getting an abortion. Because the evangelical Christian leader of ICE wants to force women to have unwanted children. There's really nothing more to it than that.

I'm going to be very blunt here. There is a certain group of men who want to be able to rape women and force them to bear their children. This group has existed for all of human history, and will probably always exist. (After all, it's pretty common in other animal species.) They generally have no interest in taking care of the children after they are born. They have managed to sway large religious groups into promoting anti-birth-control, unlimited-population-growth doctrines, though I'm sure most people in those religious groups don't recognize what the real motivations for those doctrines was.

[P.S. Sorry about the off-topic detour. This topic is one I feel very strongly about, and my primary charitable donations are to online comprehensive sex education, which tries to bypass all the religious extremists who control various world governments. If you feel the same way, consider donating to Scarleteen (still the highest-traffic sex ed website in the world).]

 

[Lessmog]

cf #me too

 

[donauker]

Yet another thread totally derailed!

 

[Intl Professor]

Yet another thread totally derailed!

Not if this discussion ceases, as it seems to have done. An advice. This was a mere few clicks in the track if y'all keep it so, as Captain Piccard might be "made to say."

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tying population growth back to the topic of oil....we've seen plenty of mature equitable societies run into the opposite problem. Ethnic Germans living in Germany is a shrinking population. White Americans living within metropolitan areas is(I believe) a shrinking population. I know Elon has always said he's concerned about insufficient population growth.

As we move from the hoarding mentality of fossil energy to a more decentralized sustainable model, I think we'll see population peak worldwide. Poverty should be eliminated within 60-100 years, that plus futuristic robo-contraceptives and VR porn should do it.

 

[Intl Professor]

Tying population growth back to the topic of oil....we've seen plenty of mature equitable societies run into the opposite problem. Ethnic Germans living in Germany is a shrinking population. White Americans living within metropolitan areas is(I believe) a shrinking population. I know Elon has always said he's concerned about insufficient population growth.

As we move from the hoarding mentality of fossil energy to a more decentralized sustainable model, I think we'll see population peak worldwide. Poverty should be eliminated within 60-100 years, that plus futuristic robo-contraceptives and VR porn should do it.

I hope you are right and plan accordingly. Unfortunately, that peak may also be achieved much earlier as the Great Migration occurs. That migration will, above the equator, be northward, and southward below the equator, and in all cases, to higher elevation for the more relaxed desert temperatures there and dryer conditions, except for rains. (A few will go to the Moon or Mars. I suspect the Koch brothers will try to buy Space X at some point.)

With what you experts here call the cat rate, I fear methane emissions and release from the seas and permafrost are surely gonna get us within the time frame you stipulate. Easy for me to say at 81, but what about my four great grand-daughters? Just the other day I was shopping at Whole Foods and making small talk with the clerks at checkout, two young women in their early twenties or earlier. One looked a bit worried. I asked, "why?" Global warming she said. **Sugar**

 

[ggies07]

@vgrinshpun posted this in the General thread, but it needs to be in here as well:

Tesla's stock price is 'too exuberant for me,' Saudi Prince Alwaleed says

Saudi billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that electric cars will eventually hurt the demand for oil.

"All other companies are going into the Tesla path of electric cars and even autonomous cars … So 5, 10, 20 years [from now] there is no doubt the dependence on oil will have to diminish," he said.

Alwaleed, chairman of Kingdom Holding, cited how cars use more than 70 percent oil's production. As a result, his country must anticipate a world with lower oil consumption.


"Saudi Arabia's move to reduce its dependence on oil is very important and smart," he added.

"We would like to celebrate when we export the last drop of oil and be dependent on other sources of wealth."

On Tesla, the investor isn't a buyer at these levels.

"Maybe some people believe the value is right. It's not for me to enter [at] that price. It's too exuberant for me right now," he said.

Alwaleed explained he bought a stake in ride sharing company Lyft because he was able to get a "better entry point" in terms of valuation versus its competitor Uber.

The prince spoke to CNBC on Monday from the headquarters of his Kingdom Holding in Riyadh.

Tesla shares are up more than 60 percent this year.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The prince also said the Aramco IPO was "on track" for next year, so we can take these comments with a grain of salt.

 

[mspohr]

The prince also said the Aramco IPO was "on track" for next year, so we can take these comments with a grain of salt.

One year, not much change. Five years,it could be quite different.
For instance, UK car sales have dropped
Shares in UK's biggest car dealer Pendragon fall by 17%

Shares in UK's biggest car dealer Pendragon fall by 17%

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The longer this disruption lasts, the larger the oil price increase will be in the coming weeks, as the disruption accelerates rebalancing.

Iraq's Kurdistan oil exports still sharply reduced - shipping source

 

[Reciprocity]

The prince also said the Aramco IPO was "on track" for next year, so we can take these comments with a grain of salt.

As soon as this deal goes through and things settle a bit, this is my queue to short oil relentlessly until I am rich. No reason to IPO unless they are looking to cash out while they can. You dont go public and take the scrutiny that goes with it unless you are trying to cash out.

 

[traxila]

Controlling population is a simplistic solution to the problems of pollution and mindless consumption. The Earth can support many more people if we limit greed driven consumption and stop raising animals for food. Renewables offer an abundance of clean energy. Vegan diet can support 10x current population with much lower environmental degradation. Just need to stop extractive industry.

Umm, you are going on record that the Earth can support 75 billion people on a vegan diet?...With less environmental impact?...

I am not sure how to respond to that. I would classify this as an 'extreme' position. I would also think that you are not really advocating the creation of 67.5 billion more people.

OTOH, totally agree that renewables can satisfy all energy demands if the will is there. I really do believe this is the meme the fossils like to pound more than anything - the idea that renewables are nice but will never be able to come close to meeting demand in real life. This is a talking point they will never abandon. If it is ever accepted as reality, the time frame to the end for fossils will dramatically decrease.

 

[mspohr]

Umm, you are going on record that the Earth can support 75 billion people on a vegan diet?...With less environmental impact?...

I am not sure how to respond to that. I would classify this as an 'extreme' position. I would also think that you are not really advocating the creation of 67.5 billion more people.

OTOH, totally agree that renewables can satisfy all energy demands if the will is there. I really do believe this is the meme the fossils like to pound more than anything - the idea that renewables are nice but will never be able to come close to meeting demand in real life. This is a talking point they will never abandon. If it is ever accepted as reality, the time frame to the end for fossils will dramatically decrease.

Yes. I am stating that the earth could support 10x as many people if everyone ate a vegan diet.
Watch this for details: www.cowspiracy.com
I do realize that the chance of everyone adopting a vegan diet is zero.

However, I certainly am not advocating the creation of 67 billion more people
The world population is headed to zero growth and about 11 billion people by the end of the century. (estimates vary quite a bit)
World population - Wikipedia

The future of humanity depends on phasing out fossil fuels as quickly as possible. This is hard in the face of lack of political leadership and the corrupting influence of fossil fuel money.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Practically no one in 2012 would have told you coal was about to peak. Those same people would have thought of $1/W solar as a dream. Yet that was only 5 years ago and here we are.

Consensus has oil peaking somewhere 2022-2032. Based on the entire history of human technological innovation, where do you think it hits? I'm going with fall 2024 to coincide with Chinese Golden Week in early October.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Seen from space, China's oil demand looks stronger than expected

 

[jhm]

BAIC Chairman: China Electric Car Production To Top 1 Million In 2018
China is on course to hit 1 million NEVs next year, 20% by 2025 and even 100% by 2030.

One of my coworkers from China told me today that Chinese social media is very excited about Tesla opening up a factory in Shanghai. They very much like Tesla and want the Tesla cars to be more affordable.

 

[RobStark]

The countries with birth rates significantly above replacement levels are in central Africa plus Afghanistan.

Even Saudi Arabia and Iran have falling birth rates which should reach replacement levels in a generation or two.