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Good luck. Is that just speculative, or are you hoping to hedge some risk for Tesla? I ask because I think the hedging thesis may be coming back. In particular, oil decline seems responsive to stock market and general worries about the next recession. The intertwining of these macro issues could also sweep up Tesla and make it sensitive to a fall in oil again. So shorting oil may hedge Tesla against a broad range of economic issues.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
60% global growth....LOL
I wonder where the IEA has us going from here? 12% growth per year no doubt. Can't wait to see the number of EV buses sold in 2020.
I wonder where the IEA has us going from here? 12% growth per year no doubt. Can't wait to see the number of EV buses sold in 2020.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Must striking and good to see is Germany. I know Tesla grew almost 80% YoY there. The other is Japan. What is that Spike from? It's not Tesla, though I wish it was.
Japan 2017. 140k xEVs?
Thats about 2.5x more than evsales reports. What gives?
The 238% increase suggests something off our radar.
I like this chart. Notice that Japan is up significantly. Does this suggest that Japanese automakers are getting into the game. Also Germany may be warming up to EV. The rest of Asia has tripled. Does this mostly reflect Korean automakers? So it important to see where these big auto producing countries are going.
In this light US is lagging behind. Tesla is at nominal growth until Model 3 ramps up. But the other US automakers are not keeping pace with the rest of the world.
I still view this EV growth as a supply problem, not a demand problem. Suppliers need to bring a diversity of compelling products to market. Consumers are ready. But OEMs are mostly a bunch of knuckledraggers who wait for the government to tell them what to make.
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mspohr
Well-Known Member
Well, this would be in line with the rest of his tax "policy". Increase tax on the low and middle class along with tax cuts for the rich.
I do think, however, an increase in gas tax would be a good thing. It would help people make the switch to EVs or more fuel efficient cars.
It seems like this is the start of replacing natural gas....
A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries Is Beating Natural Gas
A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries Is Beating Natural Gas
I'm not convinced it would make much of a difference for passenger EVs. $0.25/gal in a vehicle with 25mpg efficincy is just 1c/mile, $10/month or $1500 over the 150k mile life of an ICE vehicle. So this gives an EV an advantage of about $1500 over ICE, but most consumers make lousy total cost of ownership choices.
For truckers, this will add about 4c/mile. So it could make a difference for electric semis and such. Think about Tesla Semi with 1 million warranted miles. This would be about a $40k advantage over diesel semis.
Small electric vans cost the same as dirty diesel ones today but are in short supply | Transport & Environment
This pretty cool.
Perhaps Tesla should be looking at making heavy vans and move the crossover point up from 2026 to 2021. Of course China will jump on this too.
This pretty cool.
Perhaps Tesla should be looking at making heavy vans and move the crossover point up from 2026 to 2021. Of course China will jump on this too.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Reciprocity
Active Member
Small electric vans cost the same as dirty diesel ones today but are in short supply | Transport & Environment
This pretty cool.
Perhaps Tesla should be looking at making heavy vans and move the crossover point up from 2026 to 2021. Of course China will jump on this too.
I believe the smaller semi will have a van/box truck setup. The nice thing about the power train of an EV is that there is limitless flexibility in terms of the where the wheels go. They are drive by wire so the back wheels can be far from the front wheels and you just need a wire to power the motor(s). The smaller semi could be turned into a dozen different types of trucks and Vans.
I wonder if tesla could make a modular setup where the front of the truck and the rear most Axel and wheels are a separate unit and then can be purchased by other companies to customize and put anything they want as the rear compartment. Can't imagine that until they are selling 100,000/years, but I could see them selling the core setup to companies who can customize the main compartment into nearly anything, even RVs and party busses.
Edit: all that being stated. Tesla is not going to push into markets that are thriving in terms of EVs. Right now larger busses and small Vans seem to be areas where things are moving faster. This is part of Tesla's plan. They want the vacuum filled by other companies because they can't do it all. Tesla wants to focus their attack on the high margin vehicles. It has two impacts; Profits for Tesla and pain for competitors that forces their hands.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Venezuela is teetering on an economic cliff about to nosedive into the abyss. So why are they only pumping oil at half capacity? Isn't this the exact time you should be blowing past your OPEC issued ceiling and maximizing revenue?
Chinese Oil Demand Growth To Slow Down This Year | OilPrice.com
China oil consumption grew 5.5% to 11.77mb/d in 2017. I calculate this implies a 614kb/d increase. Now Plattes is estimating just 500kb/d in 2018. So a 114km/d decline in growth.
It's not clear how much this demand is influenced by EVs, as it seems be focused on GDP growth. But let's try to get a rough estimate of EV impact to tell if forecasters really ought to be looking into this. So here we go.
567k new passenger EVs in 2017. Assuming 30 miles per day at 29mpg, I get 14kb/d of offset
90k new EV buses at 0.7b/d is an offset of 63kb/d.
So the total EV offset is about 80kb/d is we also assume about 3kb/d in other commercial vehicles unreported.
Thus EV offset is about 16% of expected demand growth, 80 out of 500kb/d. It is also more than half the expected decline in growth, 114kb/d. Or simply put it is 0.68% of total demand. So by any of these comparison, it seems that EV growth does have a material impact on demand growth in China. Indeed, if all EVs, especially commercial branching out beyond buses, continue to grow at just 60%/y, then the demand peak may come within 4 years, 2021.
This would indeed be a shocking outcome. It mostly depends on what China does with commercial EVs. I very much expect that there is a lot flying below radar on this front. It is extraordinarily hard to get good data on commercial EVs, but I just can't see the electric bus makers stopping with buses. A wide array of vans and trucks are becoming economical to electrify and doing so would easy local air pollution. So China really could be just 4 years from peak oil. We'll have to keep an eye on China.
China oil consumption grew 5.5% to 11.77mb/d in 2017. I calculate this implies a 614kb/d increase. Now Plattes is estimating just 500kb/d in 2018. So a 114km/d decline in growth.
It's not clear how much this demand is influenced by EVs, as it seems be focused on GDP growth. But let's try to get a rough estimate of EV impact to tell if forecasters really ought to be looking into this. So here we go.
567k new passenger EVs in 2017. Assuming 30 miles per day at 29mpg, I get 14kb/d of offset
90k new EV buses at 0.7b/d is an offset of 63kb/d.
So the total EV offset is about 80kb/d is we also assume about 3kb/d in other commercial vehicles unreported.
Thus EV offset is about 16% of expected demand growth, 80 out of 500kb/d. It is also more than half the expected decline in growth, 114kb/d. Or simply put it is 0.68% of total demand. So by any of these comparison, it seems that EV growth does have a material impact on demand growth in China. Indeed, if all EVs, especially commercial branching out beyond buses, continue to grow at just 60%/y, then the demand peak may come within 4 years, 2021.
This would indeed be a shocking outcome. It mostly depends on what China does with commercial EVs. I very much expect that there is a lot flying below radar on this front. It is extraordinarily hard to get good data on commercial EVs, but I just can't see the electric bus makers stopping with buses. A wide array of vans and trucks are becoming economical to electrify and doing so would easy local air pollution. So China really could be just 4 years from peak oil. We'll have to keep an eye on China.
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