OK, I checked back to page 196 -- we were coming up with dates from 2021-2025 for peak oil demand. The modelling still looks good. Note, any recession should *accelerate* this; I'm assuming no recession.
I am less certain about when the fracking bubble will pop, but it's now been reduced to basically just the Permian (Bakken is over, done, dead), and the decline curves for the Permian get steeper every year. The backlog of DUCs may take them to 2023, but they may just max out in 2020.
Yeah, my latest modeling which is based on primary energy consumption (per BP data) has suggested an earlier peak for crude than what modeling EV adoption alone would suggest. Of course, EV alone is not going to be accurate because it only looks at one particular threat to oil demand, ignoring efficiency, other alternatives and as you point out economic disruptors such as a recession. The primary energy consumption modeling is more comprehensive in scope, but it also does not address economic shocks.
Just to review, my primary energy models suggests the following peaks
2013 coal peak
2022 total fossil (coal, crude and natural gas) peak
2023 crude peak
2024 natural gas peak
The primary problem for fossil fuels is that wind and solar are adding so much new energy each year that it increasingly satisfies the global demand for growth in energy.
Indeed, my model suggests that in 2019 non-hydro renewable growth will overtake that of fossils, adding more incremental energy than all fossil fuels combined. I'm not sure exactly what this point should be called. It simply represents the time when most of our need for incremental energy is satisfied by renewables. And this is just a prelude to the peak in fossil (expected 2022), beyond which there is no need for incremental energy from fossils. This is really quite a short span of time in which we come to recognize that a growing global economy no longer needs a growing supply of fossil fuels.
But what about a recession? A recession would slow the pace of energy demand growth and may even force a contraction in total primary energy consumption. I believe a recession would be bad specifically for fossil fuel demand. It certainly was in the last recession. The question is how bad could it now be for renewables and EVs? To some extent that depends on how severe and long lasting the next recession will be. A mild and short recession might not be so bad for renewables and EVs. For example, Tesla is limited by how quickly it can actually ramp of production of Model 3 and other future models. So a slow up in the economy would not register as decline in demand for Tesla cars. This would give Tesla an opportunity to gain market share fast from ICE makers, as they slow production through a recession. Likewise, fossil fuel power plans would idle more, but continue to age. Installations of solar and wind could continue apace in a mild, short recessions. Thus, renewables too could catch up a bit in taking share from fossil generators.
Unfortunately, in a long, severe recession even renewables and EVs could slow. Perhaps the interesting question in severe recession is how renewables and EV compete as the economy recovers. So as demand comes back, they are positioned to benefit from the bulk of that recovery. If they outcompete in the recovery, then the demand that was lost to fossils may never really come back. Fossils would have taken a permanent hit to demand. This opens up the curious possibility that all fossils may peak together leading into a recession.
We are so close to fossil peaks under a healthy economy that the peaks could be even sooner under if the economy goes bad. Fossil peaks could be just one recession away.
