N5329K
Active Member
Like Venezuela?Sure, but we have cheap gas! /S
CL1:COM
WTI Crude
45.41USD/bbl.
-0.47-1.02%
Robin
-
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Robin
Anyone know at what price fracking becomes unsustainable? Also the cheap oil is because of overproduction from a deal Trump struck with the Saudis in exchange for sanctions against Iran. Turned out the sanctions were toothless leading to overproduction and bottoming out price. What's a gallon of gasoline now in the US? I drive a Tesla so I have no idea. Maybe we should be buying gas and storing it in barrels for when the Saudis decide to cut production. I have 4 rain barrels that are empty at the moment due to winter. Might be better than cash assuming it doesn't ignite. I think I saw this on a Seinfeld episode once.Sure, but we have cheap gas! /S
CL1:COM
WTI Crude
45.41USD/bbl.
-0.47-1.02%
N5329K
Active Member
Fracking costs are a moving target. They used to need $100/bbl to make it worthwhile. But they lowered production costs considerably, though yield curves are still lousy (lots of product initially, but a quick burn out). I don't believe they can make much if anything under $50/bbl. You will see this in the weekly rig count.Anyone know at what price fracking becomes unsustainable? Also the cheap oil is because of overproduction from a deal Trump struck with the Saudis in exchange for sanctions against Iran. Turned out the sanctions were toothless leading to overproduction and bottoming out price. What's a gallon of gasoline now in the US? I drive a Tesla so I have no idea. Maybe we should be buying gas and storing it in barrels for when the Saudis decide to cut production. I have 4 rain barrels that are empty at the moment due to winter. Might be better than cash assuming it doesn't ignite. I think I saw this on a Seinfeld episode once.
Robin
I believe huge bottlenecks in pipeline capacity are about to be overcome and set to open up the Permian this spring. I can imagine they would like a little more $ per barrel than current.... I have been trying to understand the oil markets, out of interest, and am curious how this will play out when supply is set to pick up like this....
But they mix so well.
blue, seaborne iron ore, the world's number 1 seaborne commodity by tonnage. 2010 and 2011 broke above the standing iron ore/oil ratio
red, Brent oil, correlates with iron ore, despite all the oil specific news that has occurred over the past decade.
green, price ratio a tonne of iron ore vs a barrel of oil, generally bound between 1 and 1.5 (except all 2010/ start 2011)
dotted green, polynomial trend of iron ore/oil ratio, looks like a small uptick is about to occur, so divergence to higher growth in new economies compared to OECD.
TL
R variance between iron ore and oil is significantly less than variance of iron ore or oil. So common factors affecting both are significantly more powerful than factors affecting only one. ie. global demand is greater factor than OPEC or USA Shale effects.
dc_h
Active Member
OT—
If the House if Saud falls, it is likely to be a populist far right religious party. That would leave little room for moderates and possibly open up a full scale war between Iran and SA. I would think a Saudi Arabia without deep pockets would not do well versus Iran, would Egypt join the battle with SA and what would Iraq do. A post oil transition will be as dangerous as the end of the Cold War, at least regionally and a larger global engagement, if not well understood is significant.
How do we gracefully exit and can we amhelp the region avoid a regional conflagration and do we concern outset if Russia tries to leverage a meltdown into new regional power? An odd association of libertarian, liberal left and alt right might agree on an exit leaving establishment right and left flummoxed and Trumpism, if not Trump, coming out emboldened.
dc_h
Active Member
The 1978-1988 economy saw a 50% increase in labor force and bear doubling of miles driven with a decrease in fuel costs. Those pesky environmentalists/ national security people contributed significantly to the quality and duration of the 1982-2000 economic cycle. Not only in keeping fuel and electricity use steady against increased growth, but encouraging faster replacement cycles. A modest carbon tax applied to infrastructure development and steady 5% efficiency targets would encourage replacement cycles. If the cash for clunkers program hadn’t been so inefficient it could have been a great model to encourage replacement of less efficient cars and appliances.
I'm... not at all sure of that. The Wahhabbis are considered heretics by most Muslims, and are disliked even in Saudi Arabia. Also populist and far right are contradictions; far right parties are uniformly authoritarian, though they occasionally pretend to be populist.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Nejd and Hejaz ended up under separate governments, as they were before.
Yeah, not a chance. They don't have a land border and don't have a navy! And Iran has better anti-aircraft defenses!
I think Iran would decline any Saudi invitiation to have a war.
On that, I agree.
Oh, they're already trying. The US has no real tools to stop their attempts; the best we can do is stay the hell out of it. The US has already blown all its credibility in the region by hypocritical behavior.
The only thing the US could do which would really work would be to diplomatically butter up Iran. Iran does not trust Russia and Russia is trying to bring Iran into the Russian orbit. The US could have still been allied with Iran if not for the CIA's idiotic coup against the elected prime minister Mossadegh on behalf of the oil companies in 1953. In fact, once the Shah was out, the US could have gone back to being allies with Iran quickly, but instead Reagan decided to buddy up with the Saudis (because oil) and sponsor Saddam Hussein's war crimes and use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war. The US could STILL have gone back to being allies with Iran -- the Iranian people seem to *really like the US people* -- but persistently refuses to, for essentially dumb reasons.
Well, I'd argue it's always been unsustainable.
But to answer what you *meant*, when it actually stops getting funded...
No, nobody knows. The fracking companies routinely issue extremely rosy claims in order to raise money, and are a nest of "creative accounting". And of course *some* locations are sustainable at lower prices than *other* locations. So nobody can really know -- too much disinformation to tell what's really going on down to the dollars-per-barrel level.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Iraq would likely fracture along sectarian lines.
ISIS butchered too many Shia Arabs for them to join an Arab alliance against Iran.
Sunni Arabs are very much worried about a Shia Crescent from Iran, to Shia controlled Iraq, to Alawite (that have thrown in their lot with the Shia) controlled Syria to Hezbollah.
Don't expect European Social Democracy to flourish in place of the House of Saud guaranteeing women and gay rights.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Fracking in 2018: Another Year of Pretending to Make Money
More on the house of cards that is fracking... Wall Street makes money even if they go bust.
More on the house of cards that is fracking... Wall Street makes money even if they go bust.
dc_h
Active Member
Winston drew these lines up very flippantly. Perhaps as well as could have been done, but some return to long term nations and empires are not unlikely. A Persian empire is likely to be more moderate than any Sunni state based in Saudi Arabia or dependent on Saudi approval. It is too bad the Shah was such a kleptocrat. Wife worked with one of his kids in LA in the 80’s. About the most self entitled thief she’d ever met.
OT
Bunch of folks driving a 6kW foldout (20 panel) EV RV (camper van) from Arctic circle to Tierra del Fuego at tip of South America over next 2 years (started last August)
Route Del Sol
Running on sunshine
Bunch of folks driving a 6kW foldout (20 panel) EV RV (camper van) from Arctic circle to Tierra del Fuego at tip of South America over next 2 years (started last August)
Route Del Sol
Running on sunshine
We can blame Kermit Roosevelt, the CIA, and certain corrupt forces within Iran; if Mossadegh had remained prime minister, things probably would have slowly improved *despite* the Shah. Once the CIA coup gave the Shah uncontrolled personal rule, it was all doomed.
View attachment 363027
blue, seaborne iron ore, the world's number 1 seaborne commodity by tonnage. 2010 and 2011 broke above the standing iron ore/oil ratio
red, Brent oil, correlates with iron ore, despite all the oil specific news that has occurred over the past decade.
green, price ratio a tonne of iron ore vs a barrel of oil, generally bound between 1 and 1.5 (except all 2010/ start 2011)
dotted green, polynomial trend of iron ore/oil ratio, looks like a small uptick is about to occur, so divergence to higher growth in new economies compared to OECD.
TL
It looks to me that the price of iron ore may be a leading indicator of the price of oil. I also suspect that producing iron ore consumes a lot of fuel. So high ore prices drives up demand for oil, which in turn drives up the price of oil.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) comes up periodically as a "solution" to keep us burning more fossil fuels.
Here's an interesting perspective on CCS that debunks the myth. Unfortunately, like nuclear, it's too expensive and just doesn't work.
Al Gore’s right about carbon capture and sequestration
Note that they even went out of their way to say that Al Gore is right about CCS
Here's an interesting perspective on CCS that debunks the myth. Unfortunately, like nuclear, it's too expensive and just doesn't work.
Al Gore’s right about carbon capture and sequestration
Note that they even went out of their way to say that Al Gore is right about CCS
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