Correct, unfortunately.
Peak market value for oil companies was in 2008, however.
So the starting point isn't much later. So it already has taken longer.
So, it'll go a lot quicker than that, because you're wrong about the markets.
Oil is, to a first approximation,
only used in transportation. All the other significant markets -- heating, electricity -- disappeared after the 1970s oil crisis when the price went way up.
Yes, oil is used for making some plastics and lubricants, for which there is no good substitute, but these markets together are tiny -- comparable the size of the "metallurgical coal" market in steelmaking, for which there is still no commercially-deployed substitute. Metallurgical coal didn't save the coal mines, and plastics won't save the oil wells.
Oil is used for asphalt only because asphalt is an unwanted byproduct of refining. If you needed to pump oil specifically to make asphalt, you wouldn't; if the asphalt price gets too high, road-builders switch to concrete, which is better in almost every way.
Gas still has markets for electricity and heating, as well as cooking, and is actually a more popular feedstock for plastics than oil. However, gas is again an unwanted byproduct of oil production. That's what keeps it cheap, and makes it viable in the electricity and heating markets.
Remove the oil production, and the gas goes away.
Standalone "dry" gas drilling isn't profitable at current prices, and if the gas prices get high enough to make standalone gas drilling profitable, then gas becomes commercially non-viable for heating and electricity. Heat pumps are already close to breakeven with gas (depending on climate), and renewables are already cheaper than gas for electricity production. Double gas prices, which is necessary to make standalone gas wells profitable, and gas loses its markets.
We can hope.
Everything depends on replacing oil in *
transportation*. This causes the demand for oil to crash, and then the price of oil crashes. This ends new oil drilling. After a couple of years, the shale fields dry up and gas production drops sharply. Then the gas price goes up, but not enough to justify new drilling -- and with the gas price up, the markets for gas disappear as people switch to heat pumps and renewables.
Yeah, the market value always disappears before the disappearance of the industry. Coal market value disappeared over the last several years as every company went bankrupt, but only now do we see mines actually *closing*.
If investors were paying attention, the money would already have left the O&G industry -- we've probably passed world peak gasoline car sales already, electric trucks are being built, electric airplanes are being built, renewables are already replacing gas for electricity and heating -- but investors are a little slow. Eleven years of returns worse than T-bills aren't enough to scare all the investors out of oil & gas yet, apparently. Maybe 12 years will do it?