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Doggydogworld
Active Member
That article says 18650 cells are 10.8 Wh each and 240 Wh/kg. That's obviously wrong - with 8256 cells the 100 kWh S/X packs would only be 89 kWh. It also has laughers like "Tesla was able to cram a significantly larger surface area of battery material in the 2170 compared to the 18650." A bigger can holds more stuff??? Who knew?
Jack Rickard did measure the 2170s at 247 Wh/kg. Here's Panasonic announcing their 3400 mAh NCA 18650s at 266 Wh/kg. Note the date -- 10 years ago! This 2014 BatteryPro article shows Panasonic's data sheet for the later NCR18650BF (with silicon in the anode) that says 248 Wh/kg. Bottom line, these cells have been around 250 Wh/kg for a decade. There is no X% per year improvement curve.
Specific energy at the pack level is higher for Model 3 than S/X. This is because S/X pack has side beams that are part of the car's structure while the Model 3 pack does not. It has nothing to do with cell chemistry.
Those older Panasonic cells had very different chemistry and many other characteristics that were different from what Tesla is currently using. I don't know specifics, but maybe they had worse power delivery or worse lifetimes or were more dangerous or who knows? You simply can not compare just one characteristic and say that there's been no progress.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Maybe this battery conversation could be taken to the battery forum?
Brent up a whopping 13% as trading opens. The answer to MBS's prayers!
Brent up a whopping 13% as trading opens. The answer to MBS's prayers!
I have this horrible conspiracy theory running through my head. (I'm not serious. Just paranoid.) Who else besides Iran would have the ability to carry out the refinery attack? Well, US and Israel, sure. But also the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia themselves! What if they suddenly realized that their reserves were starting to run short, and they actually can't maintain full production, while at the same time they're trying to privatize Aramco? What a great excuse for cutting production while still saying they have great assets.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
More likely the opposite. We've taken so much share that they're likely oversupplied even with the OPEC cuts in place.
dc_h
Active Member
The Saudi IPO is effectively over, by the time the rebuild the refinery shale will be up and others filling the gap. In the meantime oil will be 75-100 a barrel. I doubt the refinery will be back in two months, maybe partial, but they will be down capacity for up to two years and market share loss could be much longer. I don’t discount our desire to justify a war based on economic or business goals, but the saudis would not kill their own golden goose.
Hopefully this helps the move to sustainable energy and not a bigger war. Sadly it may be both.
Any oil-producing nation apart from the USA, would stand to gain. (The US government likely wants cheap oil to continue to put pressure on the economies of hostile oil dictatorships.)
But another country that would gain from an increase in oil price is China. China has the most to gain from accelerating global electrification of energy.
larmor
Active Member
What if the price manipulation of oil was meant to just lock in what remaining revenue is left, because there is a ton of oil, but there is soon a declining number of customers of one of the end products of oil? Many years ago it would be laughable to say that no one would buy gas any more, and now that scenario is actually believable. Huge credit to tesla, and to tesla for pushing porsche to the electric realm. When more traditional auto manufacturers go towards EVs, there will be no turning back...
Look at this scenario: EVs become more available and slightly cheaper (but not super cheap), combined with a manufactured price elevation in oil and hence gas. Some people might realize that their driving needs can be met with a car that charges at home overnight. Once an inflection point is hit, there would be steady state or slight decline in gasoline customers, which leads to oversupply of gas in gas stations, and some stations would close because they cannot sell their monthly quota. That's it, gas stations become more scarce, and gas drops to nothing so they can move product, but in the same time, volume EVs become cheaper on basic economy of scale. People charge at home, and forget what going to a gas station is about, even in the cold weather, they quickly forget about getting outside to fill their car up.
That is another reason MSM articles always push the concept of charging times. The reality for EVs is that most if not all charge at night just as we charge our phones, laptops etc.
If gas is the way to go, why not install gas stations at people's houses to fulfill all their energy needs.
Tesla will push traditional automakers to EVs, China will buy any EV, because their government wants it that way and i'm not arguing this one since smog is not fun, and in that time Tesla will pivot shift to an energy delivery company or service.
Look at this scenario: EVs become more available and slightly cheaper (but not super cheap), combined with a manufactured price elevation in oil and hence gas. Some people might realize that their driving needs can be met with a car that charges at home overnight. Once an inflection point is hit, there would be steady state or slight decline in gasoline customers, which leads to oversupply of gas in gas stations, and some stations would close because they cannot sell their monthly quota. That's it, gas stations become more scarce, and gas drops to nothing so they can move product, but in the same time, volume EVs become cheaper on basic economy of scale. People charge at home, and forget what going to a gas station is about, even in the cold weather, they quickly forget about getting outside to fill their car up.
That is another reason MSM articles always push the concept of charging times. The reality for EVs is that most if not all charge at night just as we charge our phones, laptops etc.
If gas is the way to go, why not install gas stations at people's houses to fulfill all their energy needs.
Tesla will push traditional automakers to EVs, China will buy any EV, because their government wants it that way and i'm not arguing this one since smog is not fun, and in that time Tesla will pivot shift to an energy delivery company or service.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Fossil fuel companies roll out a new era of spin
In the face of these challenges, oil and gas companies are changing the way they talk to investors and the public. Based on an analysis of transcripts from the earnings calls of 40 public shale companies in the U.S., the Wall Street Journal and financial research firm Sentieo Inc. concluded that “fracking’s buzzwords have changed significantly” in the past four years, moving from a vocabulary of growth to one that promises to rein in spending.
“Ramping up” production is out; delivering on “free cash flow” is in. Translation: Companies are trying to reassure investors by bringing in more money than they spend, with the possibility of using the profit for stock buybacks or paying dividends. Not coincidentally, terms like “buyback” and “dividend” are also on the rise in earnings calls.
In the face of these challenges, oil and gas companies are changing the way they talk to investors and the public. Based on an analysis of transcripts from the earnings calls of 40 public shale companies in the U.S., the Wall Street Journal and financial research firm Sentieo Inc. concluded that “fracking’s buzzwords have changed significantly” in the past four years, moving from a vocabulary of growth to one that promises to rein in spending.
“Ramping up” production is out; delivering on “free cash flow” is in. Translation: Companies are trying to reassure investors by bringing in more money than they spend, with the possibility of using the profit for stock buybacks or paying dividends. Not coincidentally, terms like “buyback” and “dividend” are also on the rise in earnings calls.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think it's safe to say that #oilmeh is officially on hold with high likely hood of(as Hunter S Thompson would say) bad craziness.
Long live #petropocalypse.
Long live #petropocalypse.
If so, they are taking "asset impairment" way too literally.
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My hunch is that the market is substantially overreacting to the attack in Saudi Arabia. A third of the impacted capacity should be restored soon. Probably more can be restored in the coming months. Some might also be diverted to other processing plants. Things will renormalize in a few months, and Brent will resume its decent. That's my hunch.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I mean.....shorting Brent from $60 was IMO a good plan last week. Certainly it's a no brainier now from $70.
How many fracking contracts will be sold this week?
How many fracking contracts will be sold this week?
adiggs
Well-Known Member
If you're in the shale oil business in the US, this looks like a heaven sent opportunity to lock in prices for future production. The hard part is figuring out who the counter parties are that want to lock in this price for future supply.
Unless of course this turns into war in the Middle East, and they mutually figure out a way to take everybody's supply out of the market. Crude infrastructure is kind of a big target. Heck - VLCC ships are kind of big and if you can get big enough explosives to them, seem like they could be turned into a pretty big mess, pretty reliably.
Has anyone seen reporting on what quality of oil is impacted by the bombing in Saudi Arabia? If the disrupted supply is heavy crude, this could be particularly bad for the US. The US import heavy and exports light. So a shortage of heavy could raise the cost of refined products in the US without boosting demand for exports of light crude.
UAE: OPEC Can Fill Saudi Oil Supply Gap If Necessary | OilPrice.com
OPEC is not particularly concerned about filling the gap.
OPEC is not particularly concerned about filling the gap.
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