Ah.... problem with your virtual barrel calculation for transport. One barrel of crude produces about 19 gallons of gasoline and 12 gallons of "middle distillates" (including diesel); the rest is not used for land transportation. So you'd need cars & trucks getting 32 mpg to get 1000 miles out of a barrel of crude oil. That's substantially higher than the fleet average of 25 mpg.
Also, the EPA rate for Model S is as high as 380 kwh / 1000 miles.
Let's try again. 1 barrel gets you 31 gallons of gas and/or diesel, and at 25 mpg this will move you 775 miles; in a Model S this requires 294.5 kwh, and at 11 cents, that's $32.395. Huh -- it works out quite close to your result, coincidentally. Except that the electricity doesn't require refining or transportation, and the crude oil does, so....
Incidentally, at 18 cents/kwh -- a price I can get with solar and storage at my home right now in a fairly cloudy area -- the "barrel equivalent" price is $53, again forgetting about the large refining and transportation costs of gasoline.
I think, fundamentally, oil can't compete. NOW. The very best fracking companies were claiming breakevens around $35 but apparently that was done by squeezing the oilfield services companies to operate at a loss; they are now raising prices and Irina Slav at oilprice.com thinks their breakevens will go up by $10 pretty much immediately.
High-mpg cars do throw a bit of a spanner into these calculations. If we use a 50 mpg Prius as the Last Great Hope of the oil companies, we get breakevens below $64.79 (for 11 cent electricity), which is still terrifying for the oil companies.
But we really have left something out here. It would be better to calculate this using the refining and transportation costs. A while back you did a regression from average US gasoline prices to oil prices:
GasolinePricePerGallon = $0.922 + 0.0261*WTICrudePricePerBarrel + error
So for the average location in the US with average gas prices, take 11 cent electricity (also the average from the grid), use the Model S efficiency, and you find that the electric car goes at $0.0418 / mile. Comparing to the Last Great Hope For Oil, the 50 mpg Prius, this would be $2.09 / gallon, or $44.75/barrel.
Ramp it down to a better efficiency of .333 wh/mile and the equivalency is $34.85. Down to .300 wh/mile and it's $27.89.
(Use the pessimistic 18 cent electricity and the Model S efficiency and a Prius and you get $95.70. We really shouldn't see oil over $100 again. But if you use the 18 cent electricty and the fleet average of 25, you get $30.19.)
Note that US gas prices are cheaper than in most of the world. So although there will be some spots in the US with extra-cheap gas, most of the world will see gas more expensive than this.
If electricity prices drop even more, as they will...
Anyway, my conclusion from this:
(1) the only two things preventing *all* cars from going electric are the upfront purchase price and the number of cars manufactured. That's *it*. It's hardly even worth calculating fuel-price-equivalency any more, the difference is just too extreme. Electric cars are superior in every qualitative way and they're cheaper to operate no matter what, so they'll sell as fast as they can be manufactured until total market saturation.
(2) Oil prices cannot stay above $45, or indeed $25, for very long (only as long as electric cars are production constrained)
(3) Basically no new oil drilling can be profitable. Possibly some new wells in existing "conventional" oilfields, which Rystad said had an average cost of $29. No new fields, certainly; they all have costs above $40. The only way to make money from oil wells is to pump from existing wells.
I think any good model of the future oil market must be viewed entirely in terms of how fast the electric cars can be manufactured. So the question is, at what point are they manufactured fast enough to displace enough oil to keep up with the decline rate of the existing fields? I think that's a pretty hard question. Given that they'll sell as fast as they can be manufactured, we should see companies falling all over themselves to manufacture electric cars -- and I think we are seeing that (witness Faraday Future). But how fast can they actually get them manufactured?
Tesla is trying to have a huge advantage here, with "factory as a product". And they may well manage to do exactly that.
