SebastianR
Active Member
Hmm, these numbers don't seem quite right. I'll convert to British units for comparison with other assumptions we've thrown around here.
20k km/year is about 12k miles/year. So this is what I would expect.
5l/100km is 45.6 miles/gallon. This seems rather high. US fleet average is about 25 mpg. However I would expect the Chinese fleet to have smaller, more fuel efficient cars than US. Even so, 46 mpg is rather high up the efficiency scale. Perhaps something in range of 30 to 35 mpg would be more reasonable as replacement comp.
Agree it is quite a good fuel efficiency. I was assuming that since a) vehicles are smaller b) I assumed that that more strict regulation will be in place by then. But I fully and happily concede this point: 30 to 35 is more reasonable as assumption.
50 million cars? I thought China was aiming for 5 million by 2020. Is there a much bigger ambition here?
That's a misunderstanding. I believe the total annual vehicle sales to be 50 mio. And I believe there will be the mandate to have 15.5% of them electric. That would give me 7.75 mio electric cars.
So let's call it about 300 kbpd for 5 million EVs. This is actually in line with the production the crude production the Chinese government is projecting out to 2020. The coincidence here leads me to suspect that the government may actually be basing there EV target on covering their shortfall in production or something close to that. It certainly would be a reasonable anchor point. They should want enough EV production not to have to increase crude imports by a substantial amount.
Gotcha. So if you take the 300kbpd/5 million EVs and use 7.75 million EVs instead, you are at about 465kbpd that could already move the needle a bit.
Now the year before that (2019) "only" approximately 2,5 million EVs will be mandated (assuming slightly less overall vehicle sales and the 6.9% mandate). That would "only" be 150 kbpd.
However, 2019 and 2020 together would already be in excess of 600 kbpd. So this may all happen surprisingly fast if the EV mandate actually comes as advertised. And since the only chance for Chinese car makers is to lead in the EV space, I see a good chance for the EV mandate to come...
(Again, use my numbers with care...)