Ok, now I see what you have been trying to say. Thank you for taking the time to make that clear.
What you are describing is scarcity. There is too much demand for the available supply. Wealthier countries are able to bid up the price for a scarce good. The oil market is somewhere between a monopoly market and a competitive market. To the extent that OPEC is a capable cartel, the market tends closer to monopoly pricing, which produces less volume at a higher price than a competitive market. So the first problem to solve so that more supply is available at lower cost is to move toward a competitive market. The fact that OPEC is finding it hard to dictate a price in the face of shale producers is symptomatic that we are moving towards a more competitive market.
The second issue to deal with scarcity is to create alternative supply. This is precisely what all vehicle electrification leads to. By being able to plug your car in, you can now access every energy supply competing in the grid. This is already much cheaper than gasoline, even without renewables. But renewables will keep price pressure on all power generation to assure a low cost going forward.
So If wealthy countries like the US shift to EVs, this can lead to a reduction of demand that is highly insensitive to fuel prices. So yes, that could free up supply for the rest of the world, but there are two countervailing issues. This first is that as the price for fuels comes down, less quantity will be produced. That is, in a competitive market the marginal producer just breaks even at the market price. So as the market price falls more production is priced out of the market. So a reduction in demand leads to a reduction in available supply, even though the price may be more affordable by some. The second point is that the very electrification that satisfied demand in the US is also available to the developing world as well. In particular, segments that are the most price sensitive to fuels are likely to be the most motivated to seek lower cost alternatives. This is why the oil industry is fooling itself about the threat of EVs to demand. They think that EVs is just a toy for the wealthy and that they will find many willing buyers in developing countries to take their place. But what they are hoping is that replacing price insensitive consumers with price sensitive consumers will protect them from EVs which under cut on price. That is a completely illogical fantasy. One only needs to look at places like China where electrics scooters and electric buses are taking off. China as a nation probably has the most to gain economically from electrifying their transport system. On a volume basis, I expected EVs to displace fuel consumption much faster in China than in the US. What's necessary to grasp here is the distinction between compliance vehicles and competitive EVs. A certain measure of wealth may be needed for a government to dictate demand for compliance vehicles, and that is where we get this idea that wealthier countries will transition to EVs first. But as the cost of auto batteries approach $100/kWh, the economics kick in. We do not know how close Chinese battery makers are to $100/kWh, but as they get there, production of EVs will explode. I would submit that this is already happening with electric buses, which at 116k units in China was already a huge segment of the 777k unit EV market. If buses can keep doubling every year for a few more years, it will accelerate the whole EV market. Simply put, EVs will grow fastest where the need for lower cost alternatives to gasoline and diesel are greatest, not where EVs are a luxury. This is why the oil industry will get blindsided by EVs. They think of EVs as a luxury that developing countries cannot afford. But within ten years it should be clear that gasoline is a luxury that developing countries will sidestep with cheap EVs.
