Should europeans wait for AP3?

[Matias]

Tesla will probably open orders for europeans at the end of this year. First cars will be delivered late Q1 (source: latest CC). On the other hand, AP3 will start rolling some time first half of next year. So if I order immediately when it is possible, I will miss AP3 by few months.

I know Musk has promised possibility to free upgrade to AP3, but it is for those who have ordered FSD. I don’t want to order FSD now. So i’m wondering whether I will be able to upgrade to AP3 and if I can, at what cost. No one knows, what will be the price to upgrade for those, who have not bought FSD.

So i’m thinking, whether it would be best to wait few months till AP3 is out.

 

[ewoodrick]

No

 

[Knightshade]

If you aren't ordering FSD you don't need HW3- that's literally the only thing HW3 is for per previous comments from Musk/Tesla

 

[ecarfan]

I know Musk has promised possibility to free upgrade to AP3, but it is for those who have ordered FSD. I don’t want to order FSD now. So i’m wondering whether I will be able to upgrade to AP3 and if I can, at what cost. No one knows, what will be the price to upgrade for those, who have not bought FSD.

Based on what Tesla has stated and various sources I have read, the new computer that Tesla will start including in all cars next year was developed specifically to enable FSD. It is not needed for the EAP option. There is no advantage to having it if you do not buy FSD.

Until a few weeks ago the FSD price was shown on the Tesla website but it was removed https://electrek.co/2018/10/19/tesla-removes-full-self-driving-capability-package-confusion/

Over the past year it had been priced anywhere from $3,000 to $5,000. At the moment, no one knows what the price will be in the future since Tesla isn’t saying. My expectation is that it will be somewhere in that range.

I can’t tell from your post exactly what you are asking because you don’t define what you mean by “AP3”. Do you mean the current Enhanced Auto Pilot hardware and software plus the new computer coming out next year? If so, then it is my understanding that if you buy a Tesla in the future you will be able to buy FSD and at that time your car will be upgraded to the new computer.

 

[CarlK]

Elon mentioned the only thing new will be the processor board. There will be no change of the sensor suit (although I would imagine gradual improvement will continuously made). By the time when Tesla starts to ship to Europe the new processor will probably be done. Or Tesla will swap it out for you for free. There is no reason to wait.

 

[J1mbo]

My P85 was one of the first in the UK, and it was delivered a couple of months before AP1 cars started to be built. This was a major downer, as I am sure you can imagine. But, given the choice to take the car when I did, or wait 6 months ... I would have still taken the car

I guess the good side for early EU M3 owners is that upgrading the AP box will be a "30 minute" job.

 

[Matias]

If you aren't ordering FSD you don't need HW3- that's literally the only thing HW3 is for per previous comments from Musk/Tesla

i’m going to order FSD, when Tesla can show something.

 

[Knightshade]

i’m going to order FSD, when Tesla can show something.

Then you can expect to pay significantly more money for it.

 

[_jmk]

If you aren't ordering FSD you don't need HW3- that's literally the only thing HW3 is for per previous comments from Musk/Tesla

But Musk is bending the truth here. AP3 will be safer driver with the eap option as well, this is just the way it works.

 

[Knightshade]

But Musk is bending the truth here. AP3 will be safer driver with the eap option as well, this is just the way it works.

How, specifically, do you think it works?

Because unless they fork the EAP code to operate differently on AP2.x and AP3.x cars that's not true.

And Tesla (not just Musk) have stated repeatedly that EAP does not require HW3, which suggests it won't be any different on HW3 cars.

 

[_jmk]

How, specifically, do you think it works?

Believe Carpathy if you don’t believe me - driving safety depends heavily on the amount of frames processed and the amount of things identified. Faster core can detect more things faster. How can anyone think this would not matter?

 

[Knightshade]

Believe Carpathy if you don’t believe me - driving safety depends heavily on the amount of frames processed and the amount of things identified. Faster core can detect more things faster. How can anyone think this would not matter?

Except the faster chip is not required or being used for EAP. It's for FSD only.

Hence why those who bought FSD get the new chip, those than bought EAP do not.

FSD cars will get a much larger neural network on their cars to support FSD features. EAP features (and EAP only 2.x HW owners) will continue to use the existing NN on the existing HW.

Musk and the rest of the AI team on the Q3 call mentioned this explicitly.

 

[_jmk]

Except the faster chip is not required or being used for EAP. It's for FSD only.

True. Not required, but without ap3 you would still be driving with less safe configuration on the highway. Given that waiting means free upgrade to ap3 it might be worthwhile...

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Then you can expect to pay significantly more money for it.

Better pay more later for a product that actually exists than pay less now for something that`s unlikely to be released during your ownership of the car.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Better pay more later for a product that actually exists than pay less now for something that`s unlikely to be released during your ownership of the car.

Gotta disagree with you here. There is no reason for me not to believe that FSD will happen in the next two years. Having driven Navigate On Autopilot for the last couple of weeks it is amazing what they are accomplishing with current hardware and software. When they allow the car to make lane changes without driver approval all features of EAP will be fulfilled...with current hardware. Everything after that will be FSD features in my opinion. New chip...FSD features start rolling out.

Dan

 

[Knightshade]

True. Not required, but without ap3 you would still be driving with less safe configuration on the highway.

Except, you wouldn't.

If the EAP code isn't changing to use anything HW3 can do- and the fact they're explicitly not upgrading EAP owners and explicitly telling you EAP doesn't need the new chip, suggests that's the case, then you'd be exactly as safe in either version.

The only time there'd be a safety difference from a HW2.x car to a HW3 car would be possibly if using any new FSD features.

And any HW2.x car that buys FSD gets the HW3 chip for free. So again no difference in when you buy.

 

[J1mbo]

I imagine a good comparison might be the difference between an Xbox One and an Xbox One X. Both platforms run the same software to a standard that is generally acceptible to the user, but the X1X does it without slowing down or dropping frames when things get complicated.

If this anology translates to EAP then the HW3 chipset will seem smooth and confident in more situations than the HW2x chipset.

Of course, if HW3 is still underpowered for FSD then EAP on HW3 could turn out to be the "sweet spot" for most people.

 

[Knightshade]

I imagine a good comparison might be the difference between an Xbox One and an Xbox One X. Both platforms run the same software to a standard that is generally acceptible to the user, but the X1X does it without slowing down or dropping frames when things get complicated.

If this anology translates to EAP then the HW3 chipset will seem smooth and confident in more situations than the HW2x chipset.

I don't believe we have any evidence that's the case though.

From what they've said it sounds like the EAP code will be exactly the same on HW 2.x and 3.x (hence why there's no need for HW3 for EAP).


So a better analogy might be running an emulator (like Xbox 360 games on either version of the Xbox One)

They're running at original speed. So they are exactly as smooth on all 3 systems, despite 2 of them having much better hardware- because the software isn't designed to use any features that don't exist on the original hardware.



We'll need to wait to see if that changes of course- but if it does then expect a very larger number of people who paid for EAP on 2.x cars to be expecting a free HW upgrade like the FSD buyers are getting.

So tesla has a pretty major financial incentive NOT to change the EAP code for HW3 at all.

Since EAP is feature complete once drive on nav lets you turn off confirmations they shouldn't need to either.


This is part of why my prediction is one of FSDs first huge "leaps" is going to basically be offering a level 3 version of EAP- while HW2.x cars (and EAP itself in general) will always remain a L2 system and other than making code optimizations isn't getting any more new features- anything new will be part of FSD.

 

[J1mbo]

We'll need to wait to see if that changes of course- but if it does then expect a very larger number of people who paid for EAP on 2.x cars to be expecting a free HW upgrade like the FSD buyers are getting.

Why? I don't get the logic here. Going back to the Xbox analogy, X1X owners paid for a higher performance device. Those with FSD also paid for higher performance (functionally higher performance, anyway - we were all told that HW2 would be enough technically ).

Tesla will move to one version of the AP hardware for all cars. They don't have the incentive to gimp EAP on HW3 so that it runs exactly as it does on HW2x.

You just have to look at the recent MCU hardware change to see how it will play out.

 

[Runt8]

The big question is if EAP is eventually going to be a subset of FSD, or a completely different feature (in terms of software development, not a user facing feature). If they are kept completely separate in the code then I would expect AP2 and AP3 to have identical performance. However, if they are coded so that FSD is just an enhanced version built on top of EAP than AP3 could have better performance.

As to the original question - I would bet that AP3 will be available before the cars are delivered in Europe