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Should FSDC (Full Self-Driving Capabilities) be an option right now?

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To add to the arguments I posted above for offering self driving now:

5 - Learning - Tesla now has a first mover advantage in terms of fleet learning. By the time anybody else in the industry gets around to shipping a suite they say is capable of Level 4/5 in normal conditions and can fleet learn - Tesla will be on V3 of the Autopilot suite (perhaps containing Lidar) and will have two years or more of learning behind them - along with a fully proprietary vision system the fleet began testing way back in October 2017.

There is no such thing as fleet learning.
its a complete facade and i have debunked it several times.
 
I think it would be insane to only charge $4,000 for FSD at a point in time where it actually works and does everything they claim it will. That is very clearly a $20k - $30k feature, at least for the first few years. It would take that much just to recoup research & development costs, ignoring the cost of the actual hardware itself. Only charging $3,000 for it now is like getting a 90% discount, but taking the risk that it might not ever really work.

There is no question it's a bargain even it doesn't achieve "full self-driving in almost all circumstances".

From a consumer point of view one can make arguments in favor of FSD, and I say that as someone who really dislikes the package.

Here are some arguments in favor from a consumer point of view.

1.) Tesla doesn't really get your $3K until they deliver something that in good faith matches what it's supposed to do. At least that's how I understand the accounting of it.

2.) Tesla has to make good on an promise to upgrade the car if it doesn't achieve FSD. This could be the vision computer, or it could be adding car to car communication capability (like what Cadillac has), or something else. The only real out Tesla gave themselves is the "highly dependent on local regulatory approval", and they had to do that because some regions of the world might never see come to fruition. But, I don't see an out for technical limitations of HW2.

3.) There is the potential that it could go up in value significantly if it achieves things that help a lot of people. Like even if it was just really good at finding a parking place by itself and parking. So it could drop a person off in front of the mall. Never underestimate the willingness of people to pay $$$'s to be lazy.

4.) EAP is likely always going to be intended for hands on the wheel driving.

5.) They're probably going to throw a bone to FSD owners to enable something that uses the extra cameras. Even if it's only being able to view them it's at least something.

The big against argument is really time. There is no time line for any of it. As soon as the timeline element is better well known I think people will start getting it. So this could cause demand to spike depending on how promising things look.

As an AP1 consumer I've chosen to wait it out a bit. For me the biggest obstacle isn't really even with FSD itself, but with the performance of the cameras in the rain. Something AP1 doesn't do so great at.

But, AP1 performs well enough that I'm not sure I'll upgrade until Level 3 semi-autonomous driving arrives with AP2 (or later).
 
The firm is being shady. It's not 10k for those features when you order. It's 8. Playing loose with facts when you're accusing someone of playing loose with facts is ironic at best and an instant loser at worst.
Yeah, that was annoying.

It's not even $8K.

These are two packages that add up to $8K where each one has specific features that they enable.

They can't count AEB, FCW or any other safety feature either because the safety features are standard with the car. Those aren't purchased with the EAP package.

I really hope Tesla comes out with a dash cam recorder, but to access all 8 cameras you have to pay for the FSD option. If they did that most every AP2/EAP owner would be scrambling to get it. Full coverage around the car for $750 a camera? Sounds good to me.

Add in some night rider stuff like "please step away from the vehicle" and people would love it.
 
1.) Tesla doesn't really get your $3K until they deliver something that in good faith matches what it's supposed to do. At least that's how I understand the accounting of it.

I've told you before that your understanding of the accounting here is completely and utterly wrong. Tesla does get the money and can spend it just as freely as the money it gets from you for features it did deliver. The only thing it can't do is write it in the 'revenue' column on their accounting forms.
 
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But, AP1 performs well enough that I'm not sure I'll upgrade until Level 3 semi-autonomous driving arrives with AP2 (or later).

In that case my guess is you'll wait for AP 3 because I still give it only 18 months before the third gen hardware suite arrives. And I give more than 50% odds it will have lidar. Perhaps even redundant computers, brake lines, etc.
 
I Paid for FSD, because I wanted it when available. But, after reading the posts on this forum and my increasing general understanding of what FSD entails, I would not do it again.

Tesla would have been better off not advertising the FSD and just having a check box giving you the option of prepaying for FSD at a discount if it will ever be available, along with the option to refund the money if FSD is not delivered.
 
I don't think full autonomous driving will be available before the base warranty on a new car runs out. IMHO. And maybe even later, and possibly never. There are still too many unknowns to promise it now.

If it actually comes to pass then I would be willing to spend a little more money in the future rather than take a chance on it.
 
I think it would be insane to only charge $4,000 for FSD at a point in time where it actually works and does everything they claim it will. That is very clearly a $20k - $30k feature, at least for the first few years. It would take that much just to recoup research & development costs, ignoring the cost of the actual hardware itself. Only charging $3,000 for it now is like getting a 90% discount, but taking the risk that it might not ever really work.

im not sure i agree with your numbers.
 
Full autonomy might not be ready but I do think stop signs and lights will be a big deal once local autosteer is more reliable. It will be worth the $3k for that added convenience. I can also see private property parking as a great value add that is short of actual FSD. I think people are getting too hung up on the entire Level 4/5 part and failing to see some other features that will definitely be valuable and practical. I bought my car. If leasing I would've waited but I plan on having this car as long as it'll have me. I don't immediately upgrade my phone because the newest one is a dodecaprocessor.

I also think Tesla will increase the prices once they start getting demand. I'm not sure how much but I could see $5k/6k like the cost of EAP.
 
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@Doug_G - I am literally picking a car right now before clicking the "buy" button - and trying to decide on FSD. If Tesla achieves a lot the next 12 months and suddenly raises the price of FSD by $5,000 or more I will be kicking myself!

It's pretty much impossible for full self-driving to become available in the next 12 months. They don't even have the AP2 cars operating at the same level as AP1 yet.

This is not a trivial technology. There are many complex edge cases to consider. Google has been running experimental self-drive cars for years, and are very slowly perfecting it. Unless Elon has made some grand deal with them - and their cars are based on different sensor technology so may not be applicable - I simply don't believe it.

Sure, I could be wrong. (But I'm not).
 
im not sure i agree with your numbers.

I will admit I pulled those numbers out of my ass, but Tesla does spend a ton on R&D and my guess is a large portion of that (especially since 2015) has been on autopilot and autonomous car research.

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@Doug_G - I remain convinced Tesla will begin separating features of some kind for FSD before the end of this year. What, I don't know. But it seems unlikely they will let all of 2017 go by without throwing a bone to the FSD buyers. My guess is that the bone will be "no nags" for divided highway cruising.
 
Now you listen here buddy boy - when I want you to call me on my hypocrisy I'll let you know!
For the record, my post here is not exactly to gripe, and the tone of my writing might be more due to my overall pessimistic NY upbringing, however.. the thing im really thinking about with all of this is:

Why make FDSC an option now, when they could just as easily make it a software upgrade when its done? It's seems weird to me to make the buyer essentially place a bet on whether you're going to come through on your work in a given amount of time. I just feel like I haven't seen anything sold like this... other than maybe a kickstarter lol