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Should FSDC (Full Self-Driving Capabilities) be an option right now?

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You're joking, right? You're saying it costs $3 billion in R&D based on $30,000 per vehicle across 100,000 annual deliveries? Not.

Based on my quick research into Tesla's R&D spend (see my earlier post for the chart), they've already spent $1.5 billion just in 2015 and 2016, so $3 billion is definitely on the low end of their total spend for say the 5 year period from 2015 to 2020, while autonomous driving is their primary focus.
 
Total spent on R&D ≠ amount spent on Autopilot

If you extrapolate out until 2020, you will see that even assuming the modest increase in total R&D from 2015 to 2016 holds true for each year, total R&D spend over the period is right at $6.5 billion. It is not a stretch at all to think that $3 billion of that total is on autonomous car research and related software and hardware development.
 
Do you really think that everyone is not paying for that extra hardware? Its built into the price of the vehicle already. This is why the Model 3 can break this company because these customers that can barely afford a $35k car are pre-ordering it and they will not be buying $8k features and I would say that probably 70% of these users will never use this technology. Tesla should be selling the vehicle without all the hardware.

I don't recall any price increases for S and X at the time except a $2K increase for the S60, which is now being discontinued.

As for Model 3, recent reports suggest that Autopilot is likely to be the most popular option.
Tesla Model 3: Autopilot is most popular option among reservation holders and 58% want a battery upgrade

Not sure how many of those will spring for FSD at least initially -- I'm sure it will depend in part on how EAP/FSD looks when it is time for the customer to order. But once FSD is up and running I expect most people will want it.
 
Based on my quick research into Tesla's R&D spend (see my earlier post for the chart), they've already spent $1.5 billion just in 2015 and 2016, so $3 billion is definitely on the low end of their total spend for say the 5 year period from 2015 to 2020, while autonomous driving is their primary focus.

Mobileye probably has software developer budget of ~$30-50 million. If they could double that spending and speed up development 50%, the ROI on the additional investment would be fantastic. But the development process doesn't work that way.

I doubt Tesla has a larger autonomous driving software budget than mobileye.
 
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I don't recall any price increases for S and X at the time except a $2K increase for the S60, which is now being discontinued.

As for Model 3, recent reports suggest that Autopilot is likely to be the most popular option.
Tesla Model 3: Autopilot is most popular option among reservation holders and 58% want a battery upgrade

Not sure how many of those will spring for FSD at least initially -- I'm sure it will depend in part on how EAP/FSD looks when it is time for the customer to order. But once FSD is up and running I expect most people will want it.

Actually, AP1 was once $2500 at delivery/$3k after, and several months later raised arbitrarily to $3k at delivery, $3500 after "to better align with the value it gives customers."

So it's certainly possible that Tesla will raise the price of FSDC once they have the package working on the car. If they end up needing additional hardware than I'd say it's fairly likely - otherwise it'll depend on how the market shapes up I think.
 
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Actually, AP1 was once $2500 at delivery/$3k after, and several months later raised arbitrarily to $3k at delivery, $3500 after "to better align with the value it gives customers."

So it's certainly possible that Tesla will raise the price of FSDC once they have the package working on the car. If they end up needing additional hardware than I'd say it's fairly likely - otherwise it'll depend on how the market shapes up I think.

It certainly would not surprise me if the price of FSD increases once it is up and running. How much I have no idea.
 
What I want to know is, when is somebody going to start he angry thread with the angry thread title "xx freakin months and no full-self driving!!!! Where is it Elon?!!! False advertising!!!". I'll follow that thread closely!

Yea... Mix in "want a refund" and "Class action lawsuits" and I think there's a few of those threads here already.
 
Yea... Mix in "want a refund" and "Class action lawsuits" and I think there's a few of those threads here already.
Yea, and they'll suffer the same fate as the "Where is my 691hp?" threads which eventually died down - Tesla eventually just said the motors are capable of 681hp but the car as a system can barely produce 463hp in ideal conditions. FSD will be the same thing, hardware is capable, but not the software, so they didn't lie. $3,000 gets you the FSD capable hardware the same way people got 691hp capable P85D's ;)
 
I keep thinking they may have to add a second cpu for FSD - Nividia believes this to be the case

If you pay the 3k now Tesla would be forced to add the second cpu free of charge

If you don't buy at the time of purchase they may increase the charge to 5-8k to cover their additional expense

To me buying the FSD at the time of purchase is a no brainer
 
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I keep thinking they may have to add a second cpu for FSD - Nividia believes this to be the case

If you pay the 3k now Tesla would be forced to add the second cpu free of charge

If you don't buy at the time of purchase they may increase the charge to 5-8k to cover their additional expense

To me buying the FSD at the time of purchase is a no brainer

^ Reason I bought FSD when I ordered the car also.. I think that FSD will become much more expensive, especially if another CPU/GPU are required. Also the money I paid is listed on Tesla books as deferred revenue. They want to earn it just as bad as I want FSD.

Thanks Erik
 
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I keep thinking they may have to add a second cpu for FSD - Nividia believes this to be the case

If you pay the 3k now Tesla would be forced to add the second cpu free of charge

If you don't buy at the time of purchase they may increase the charge to 5-8k to cover their additional expense

To me buying the FSD at the time of purchase is a no brainer
The resemblance to the hp issue would be remarkable. P85D's were offered $5K ludicrous upgrade to 500hp, while Ludicrous for new cars was $10K. FSD might get you a second CPU to get you some extra functionality, but nowhere near the original spec (in case of FSD, no way will you be able to use it for ride hailing, etc.). Maybe then, just like with ludicrous, Tesla will come out with a whole new design and turn FSD off in all CPO's, like they turned off Ludicrous from P85D's and P90D's CPO's.
 
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I paid for FSD in 2016.12 precisely to lock in Tesla's commitment to this HW (so, yeah, a kickstarter campaign, but with a thread of a class action lawsuit). It sure looks like a bad bet not, and I would rate the chances of HW2/AP2 sensors doing FSD as << 10%, but that's the nature of betting.

At least, I will be well-positioned for the class action lawsuit to recover that part of my "investment." ;) Seriously, I never believed AP2 could to anywhere near to L4/L5 autonomy, but I wanted Tesla to have skin in the game so that at least AP3 MIGHT work.
 
I should add that I'm still deeply pissed off that AP2 cars are unlikely to ever meet AP1 "parity," in terms of stability and "trustability." If the whole-hog FSD approach doesn't pan out with AP2 sensors (almost certainly, IMHO), then we'll never achieve much more than the current toy level of AP1 copy-cat functionality.

And, (OK, call em wrong!), I am pissed off at Elon's tweet in February in response to mine, mocking me for doubting that we will get automatic wipers. PROVE ME WRONG, ELON (pretty please?). Just admit your team f***ed up.
 
Yea, and they'll suffer the same fate as the "Where is my 691hp?" threads which eventually died down - Tesla eventually just said the motors are capable of 681hp but the car as a system can barely produce 463hp in ideal conditions. FSD will be the same thing, hardware is capable, but not the software, so they didn't lie. $3,000 gets you the FSD capable hardware the same way people got 691hp capable P85D's ;)
Well they did lie on the HP issue and settled with customers in Norway. We have decent consumer protecting laws here. We have very strict regulations on marketing, the authorities are penalizing any firm not able to document their claims.
 
Well they did lie on the HP issue and settled with customers in Norway. We have decent consumer protecting laws here. We have very strict regulations on marketing, the authorities are penalizing any firm not able to document their claims.
Yep, and eventually you can probably expect them settling on FSD in Norway too. Sadly, it doesn't help customers elsewhere.
 
Don’t fret we still have about 3 weeks and we will DEFINITELY have FSD features noticeably depart from EAP.


IMG_1714.PNG
 
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