Should FSDC (Full Self-Driving Capabilities) be an option right now?

[calisnow]

As long as Tesla keeps updating the software 3-6 times per year with steady progress in reliability and capability I believe it will keep the masses satisfied and the critics at bay. I think it will also keep Tesla adding distance between the competition and itself.

Oh, time for bed but on the topic of why announce FSD when they did - I'll write tomorrow. The other reason for the timing I've always believed is that Tesla needed some good publicity right then to counter the flood of negativity that was hitting around that time. Remember it needed to also close the SolarCity deal, it was not yet cleared by the NHTSA and it had broken up with Mobileye.

 

[electracity]

The real crime is Elon's hype-train press conferences talking about your car dropping you off and parking itself, an unattended vehicle driving from West Cost to East Coast, or making money from a driverless uber-like program while you aren't using it. Optimistically that's a decade away.

Yes. In a few shorts moths we have gone talk of model 3 self delivery to picking the car up from a tent.

My Model 2 prediction: "When you new car has been manufactured, we will toss a set keys onto your front law. Please proceed with the keys to the nearest waterfront and ask for "Vinny".

 

[electracity]

Finally @S4WRXTTCS @Electricfan @Ulmo and others - remember this suite is shipping in the Model 3 (perhaps + a HUD). Tesla is fully aware the 3 is the most important launch in their entire history. They know the stakes are huge for getting this right. Given that the financial stakes of NOT delivering at least a modestly capable full self driving experience that they have promised to hundreds of thousands of reservation holders (soon to be owners) are gigantic - it is reasonable to imagine that a number of highly qualified engineers at Tesla and Nvidia believe this approach will work. Again, if asked to put money down on a bet whose bet would you take? A few outside hobbyists on the internet with no inside access to Tesla's development team - or the bet of the company with a strong track record of delivering tech to market others thought impossible, and which has billions of dollars riding on the outcome?

I'll take Tesla's side of the bet.

Having a relative who worked at SpaceX in engineering, I LOL. Musks constant innovation and changes creates chaos, not a focused engineering effort. If the M3 release goes well, it will be because Musk backed off and let the auto professionals do their job.

I'm hoping "the world's best second row seats" in the MX is the end of Musk's amateur design efforts.

 

[CTgigawatt]

There is/was the conversation "when are you going to release AP2". There were to be wiring harnesses, camera, sensors that would let a car be AP2, and then later FSDC. They alway had a problem with making the hardware and software appear at the same point in time. The anticipation of missing out on AP2 hardware was hurting sales. I almost did not pull the trigger on my car, but waiting for AP2 even another month would have cost me my color option.
I don't see any problem with them getting the hardware into the wild, collecting information from the stealth miles, before releasing the finished software. I also don't see a problem charging for the hardware that is in the car, even if it is not fully functional.

They are not charging for hardware that is in the car. They are charging for software that is not currently in use, nor will be in use in the near future.

 

[CTgigawatt]

Ah yes - a great specimen of one of the loveliest of all post types - the high horse morality post cross bred with the emotional validation seeking post. This post type goes as follows:

"I do not approve of a certain transaction between two parties. Therefore it is immoral. I want validation for my feelings - do you feel the same way? Let us revel in our disapproval together - it feels so good."

View attachment 219246

Let me ask you. What are you doing on forum if not to share ideas and ask other people's opinions?

 

[CTgigawatt]

So says the Tesla hobbyist on the internet. The man who built Tesla (you remember - the one who started building electric sedans when people told him it was a fools errand - and then launched autopilot to much hobbyist-hand-wringing) and who is landing rockets upright on barges says otherwise. If Musk had listened to reasoning like this he would never have gotten anywhere in life close to where he is now. YOU have no idea what the requirements will be for full self driving. Musk has considerably greater access to and influence on the power brokers of the world than you do - and I imagine he knows more about machine learning than you do as well. Oh - and if you think "enhanced auto pilot" is a sales hook that gets people excited, dreaming and keeps Tesla's name burnished and sales driving forward - don't go into marketing as a career.

Not attacking you but the history of Tesla is filled with this exact line of reasoning - it's at the point where it's funny now to hear it again. "I don't understand X therefore Tesla should not do Y because the downside is greater than the upside." Meanwhile the beat goes on and Tesla keeps growing...

Yes, yes... however, Musk didn't sell you the Roadster for 75% of the price non-refundable before finishing the design... like FSD.

 

[CTgigawatt]

As long as Tesla keeps updating the software 3-6 times per year with steady progress in reliability and capability I believe it will keep the masses satisfied and the critics at bay. I think it will also keep Tesla adding distance between the competition and itself.

Oh, time for bed but on the topic of why announce FSD when they did - I'll write tomorrow. The other reason for the timing I've always believed is that Tesla needed some good publicity right then to counter the flood of negativity that was hitting around that time. Remember it needed to also close the SolarCity deal, it was not yet cleared by the NHTSA and it had broken up with Mobileye.

For someone who criticized the existence of this thread... you really seem to be enjoying yourself here.

 

[calisnow]

Let me ask you. What are you doing on forum if not to share ideas and ask other people's opinions?

I just think it's funny - disapproving of a voluntary transaction between two adults and looking for others to share in the disapproval. It pops up from time to time along with the "I'm gonna get me a lawyer" threat-posts.

I am here by and large to talk tech, ask questions and speculate on the future. Others are here to gripe.

 

[calisnow]

For someone who criticized the existence of this thread... you really seem to be enjoying yourself here.

Now you listen here buddy boy - when I want you to call me on my hypocrisy I'll let you know!

 

[182RG]

Congrats @calisnow! You've achieved full cheerleader status with this thread!

 

[calisnow]

Congrats @calisnow! You've achieved full cheerleader status with this thread!

Awww, thanks ya big hunka Cessna manliness you.

 

[croman]

Cheerleading uniforms were granted copyright protection yesterday by SCOTUS. Tread carefully.

 

[Lukez]

I'd like to know how all those people feel that sold their AP1 MS and ordered an AP2 MS to "upgrade". There were so many posts in the For Sale section when this was rolled out.
Feel bad for them.

 

[ABC2D]

Now you listen here buddy boy - when I want you to call me on my hypocrisy I'll let you know!

Elon? Is that you?

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I think it's a mistake, from a PR standpoint, for Tesla to offer consumers something that doesn't exist yet. There is a high risk of this backfiring. Tesla could have done just as well by offering EAP without FSD, announcing FSD as a total surprise and to much fanfare once it was ready. Tesla made a decision, at the highest corporate levels, to give customers an option to provide Tesla with $3,000-$5,000 in order to fund development. At the end of the day, that's what they are doing - using your free money to develop a promised feature that may or may not ever come to fruition as advertised.

Tesla did not need to announce FSD when it did. Tesla and/or Musk has this strange inferiority complex where they feel they have to constantly announce future promises in order to impress and maintain demand. This smacks of insecurity to me.

Autopilot used to be a $2,500 option. Now it is $5,000. Tesla is not charging more for value, they are charging you in advance for hardware upgrades that will be necessary to achieve the promise. Most likely Tesla already priced upgrading the Nvidia boards into the feature cost. That should give everyone pause, because if true, Tesla knew when EAP was priced and announced that the current hardware was insufficient to achieve the promise.

 

[obvnotlupus]

It's laughable to think that the system that can't even get close to AP1 in accuracy and features will enable full self driving in 2017. Not going to happen in 2017 and 2018.

It's fine to add it as an option now for purchases. It is NOT fine to have it for leases. It's literally wasted money.

 

[DÆrik]

I'd like to know how all those people feel that sold their AP1 MS and ordered an AP2 MS to "upgrade". There were so many posts in the For Sale section when this was rolled out.
Feel bad for them.

I was one of those people. I picked up my first Tesla in June 2016 and sold it earlier this year to upgrade to a 100D with AP 2. I feel great. I knew exactly what I was getting into - AP 2 is behind AP 1 at the moment. AP 2 will catch up and far exceed AP 1 in time. Did they say they hope to have AP 2 at the same level of AP 1 at the end of 2016, yes I believe so. But I understand sometimes things happen that can delay software. The validation must be ridiculous. Do I want FSD now, sure. But I also know that every additional day that it takes to be pushed out will make the software that much safer.

I am satisfied. I don't mind being a guinea pig and collecting their data, much like thousands of people did for a full year before AP 1 was turned on.

As for paying for it before it's released. I like to gamble... I think FSD will be more than 3-4k once software is complete.

Thanks Erik

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I was one of those people. I picked up my first Tesla in June 2016 and sold it earlier this year to upgrade to a 100D with AP 2. I feel great. I knew exactly what I was getting into - AP 2 is behind AP 1 at the moment. AP 2 will catch up and far exceed AP 1 in time. Did they say they hope to have AP 2 at the same level of AP 1 at the end of 2016, yes I believe so. But I understand sometimes things happen that can delay software. The validation must be ridiculous. Do I want FSD now, sure. But I also know that every additional day that it takes to be pushed out will make the software that much safer.

I am satisfied. I don't mind being a guinea pig and collecting their data, much like thousands of people did for a full year before AP 1 was turned on.

As for paying for it before it's released. I like to gamble... I think FSD will be more than 3-4k once software is complete.

Thanks Erik

You kind of have to say this, though. Otherwise you would have to admit that you made a mistake. I think it's easier to convince yourself to accept the status quo than it is to admit that you might have made a mistake or been wronged. This isn't a criticism, just a basic fact of human nature. I do hope that Tesla delivers on its promise or there will be a huge lawsuit.

 

[DÆrik]

@AmpedRealtor What I said above is how I felt before I even sold my first Tesla and ordered the new one. I got to experience AP 2.0, household took delivery of one in December, before I ordered my AP 2 car. I knew exactly what the pitfalls of upgrading were. Anyone who is spending this kind of money should be able to educate/research the current state of AP and make their own decision.

Thanks Erik

 

[sdorn]

I think it would be insane to only charge $4,000 for FSD at a point in time where it actually works and does everything they claim it will. That is very clearly a $20k - $30k feature, at least for the first few years. It would take that much just to recoup research & development costs, ignoring the cost of the actual hardware itself. Only charging $3,000 for it now is like getting a 90% discount, but taking the risk that it might not ever really work.