Should I buy AP 2.0, 2.5 or wait for 3.0?

[SnowFlyer]

Hi everyone, I have been reading the forum for the last two month but this is my first post so here's a bit about my car situation.

I currently drive a 2003 Subaru WRX that I have owned since new. I like fast, efficient, AWD cars so a Tesla Model S 100D is a no brainer for me now that I'm in a position to afford one. I live in northern Arizona and like to ski, so I drive in snow frequently and make road trips all over the western US. I plan to buy a Model S100D before the end of 2017 (to take advantage of the free supercharging/$1k discount promo). I've been researching Teslas for the last two months and am chomping at the bit to get a great EV that I'm happy to keep for a long time

Many owners seem to be unhappy with AP 2.0 saying that it still doesn't drive as well as AP 1.0. In August I demoed a MS 100D AP 2.0 for 250 miles with 95% of my AP usage during cross country interstate driving and was relatively relatively happy with the performance of AP 2.0. I've never driven AP 1.0 or AP 2.5.

I've used ev-cpo.com and have found some good candidates in inventory with AP 2.0 (meaning cars with other preferred options at reduced prices). I've not seen any inventory MS100D's equipped as I like with AP 2.5. As we get closer to the end of the year I expect to see more and more inventory MS 100D's with AP 2.5, but am not sure if I should hold out for an AP 2.5 an "AP 3.0" car, or just pull the trigger on an AP 2.0. I'm driving a 2003 WRX and like to keep my purchases a long time so to minimize depreciation expense, so want to be sure I'm getting the right car that I'll be happy with for a long time.

So here are some related questions I have:

1) Does AP 2.5 operate any better or differently than AP 2.0 (other than AP 2.5's current lack of Automatic Emergency Braking)?

2) If there's no current advantage of AP 2.5 vs 2.0, do you think AP 2.5 cars will have an advantage in the future, better capability or higher resale value?

3) Any rumors or chance that Tesla will release an upgraded AP 2.6 or 3.0 before the end of 2017?

4) Should I forgo 2.0 and 2.5 and just buy a MS 90D AP 1.0 while I wait for the AP 2.0 issues to get resolved or an improved AP to be released? I've contemplated many of my probable trips using evtripping.com. and the MS 90D would make many trips much longer this year due to the range issues and not being able to go direct.

Thanks for reading and I appreciate any info you can offer.

Cheers

Snow Flyer

 

[boaterva]

No.
Yes.
No.
No.



Seriously, if you want a car now, get the best car that will be the best for the future, which is a 2.5 one. Unless you want to wait for the best car, which means you will be waiting forever. Unless you want to wait until Level 4.0 or 5.0 is a reality and you can buy then. But you will be missing a lot of fun driving and pretty good AP-assisted driving in the meantime.

 

[Saghost]

The guidance Tesla gave us is that AP2.5 is the same as 2.0 except for more redundancy - but it also appears to have a different radar module (which is why they don't have AEB right now) - so draw your own conclusions.

It seems likely that 2.5 will have some advantage at some point in the future - Tesla doesn't create more expensive (assumed, since they said it's more redundant) suites for no reason. Whether the difference will be enough to matter I have no clue.

I'm not 100% certain, but I think AP2.5 is still using DrivePX boards, so yes, there's a chance that Tesla will release a 2.6 or 3.0 this year because Xavier is supposed to be shipping this quarter with 60% more processing power in a SoC designed specifically for self driving and consuming ~12% of the power - I'm assuming Tesla will want to move to that as soon as it's practical, and since it's also NVidia there shouldn't be any porting issues. There have been no rumors about this that I've seen.

At this time I wouldn't buy an AP1 car unless your budget limited your options. My AP1 X has been a great adventure and Autopilot is an indispensable trusted partner on road trips, but AP2+ and FSD are clearly the future, and I do believe that Tesla will get the problems sorted out before too long.

 

[Tam]

...wait...

Tesla statement:

“The internal name HW 2.5 is an overstatement, and instead it should be called something more like HW 2.1. This hardware set has some added computing and wiring redundancy, which very slightly improves reliability, but it does not have an additional Pascal GPU.”

The difference is "slightly" so I wouldn't wait for it!

 

[boaterva]

Tesla statement:

“The internal name HW 2.5 is an overstatement, and instead it should be called something more like HW 2.1. This hardware set has some added computing and wiring redundancy, which very slightly improves reliability, but it does not have an additional Pascal GPU.”

The difference is "slightly" so I wouldn't wait for it!

Wait for it? Every car after August 21 has it. Unless you want to get a good deal on a (slightly) older inventory.....

But anything you order is 2.5 (which is what we call it). The option code is AP3 (probably because most option codes have one numeric digit...).

We were just saying if you're buying a new car, we'd get a "2.5" one.

 

[SnowFlyer]

My gut tells me to wait till near the end of 2017 before pulling the trigger. It feel like there's an improvement or price reduction worth waiting for that will be released before the end of this year that they'll use to promote selling more cars this holiday season. Not sure if that's:

1) larger battery capacity (100 kWh was released over a year ago now),

2) improved AP hardware (based on forum talk of FSD w AP 2.0 being a pipe dream),

3) a price reduction, discount, or something else.

If I'm wrong then I get a 2018 "year" newer car (if I custom order) with free super charging, $1,000 discount, and the $7,500 federal tax incentive. So I either way I figure I score at the expense of waiting a 3 more months.

Thanks for all the replies.

 

[boaterva]

Of course, you don’t know where the referral program will go, there may be no Free Supercharging. It was gone, gone. Then came back and gone and back. Who knows.

Personally, I doubt another hardware (AP) change when they just did one a year after AP2.0 came out. Should be an interesting quarter, as usual!

 

[BigD0g]

If I wanted a car this year I’d order dec 31st and postpone delivery for as long as possible, best way to play the tesla game.

 

[arcus]

IMHO, there's never a good (or bad) time to buy a piece of evolving technology - this is what you get when you buy a Tesla. Not just a car. Everyone's criteria is slightly different, but in the essence something attracts all of us to Tesla more than any other vehicle manufacturing brand. So, is AP a deal maker/breaker for you? Or are other features more important? Only you yourself can answer that question

 

[Troy]

I've been researching Teslas for the last two months and am chomping at the bit to get a great EV that I'm happy to keep for a long time.

Hi. For how long do you plan to keep the Tesla? What is your yearly mileage? Why not a Model 3 80D or P80D? Those have more range than the Model S 90D or P90D.

AP2.5 has liquid cooling, an additional graphics card, a new radar and some additional wiring for redundancy. Tesla made 73,000 AP2.0 cars. They don't make them anymore. They will have 170,000 AP2.5 cars in just 6 months from now. You should definitely not buy AP2.0.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Get a CPO AP1 and save some money for AP3.

 

[SnowFlyer]

Hi. For how long do you plan to keep the Tesla? What is your yearly mileage? Why not a Model 3 80D or P80D? Those have more range than the Model S 90D or P90D.

AP2.5 has liquid cooling, an additional graphics card, a new radar and some additional wiring for redundancy. Tesla made 73,000 AP2.0 cars. They don't make them anymore. They will have 170,000 AP2.5 cars in just 6 months from now. You should definitely not buy AP2.0.

I've decided on the Model S vs the M3 for these primary reasons.
1) More room for gear, cargo and dogs with 2x the cargo and the hatch for bulky items.

2) It's available now vs end of 2018. I actually put a deposit down for a Model 3, but delivery is not estimated it till the end of 2018, so I will likely cancel this.

I'd actually like a Model X for better capability in the dirt and more cargo capacity, but the doors ruin any reasonable chance of carrying gear on the roof, add expense and the range is just slightly too short and it's way more than I want to spend. My ideal Tesla is a Model X with normal passenger doors so I can use the roof to carry gear as needed with 450 miles of range (increase range vs what it does now and not worry too much about range loss with gear on the roof), and at a bit less expensive.

Get a CPO AP1 and save some money for AP3.

That was my original plan. I had a deposit down on that exact car but after running a frequent crosscountry trip on evtripping.com , I realized the 90D would add another 1.5 hours to the trip compared to a 100D so I canceled. The trip I'll make 2 -4 times per month. This trip is 6hrs in my ICE, 7.5 hours in a MS100D or 9 hours in a MS90D in winter conditions (due to having to go out of the way to an extra supercharger). So I'm looking for a good deal on a MS 100D. By the end of 2018 a SC is planned that would allow this trip to happen in a 90D in about 7.5 hrs, but I have lots of ski plans this winter and don't want to deal with excessive delays due to the 90D. If I got lucky and drafted a semi for much of the trip it is possible now in a 90D, but I'm not interested in cutting it that close.

 

[idleuser]

The must have feature for a Tesla is probably the unlimited free supercharging. It depends if AP 3.0 is vastly better than 2.5 but I hedge my bet and wait until the end of Q4 before putting in an order to time Federal Tax credit.

AP1.0=Level 1
AP2.0=Level 1 (it's not even on parity at this point)
AP2.5=Level 2/3 at the very least
AP3.0=Uncharted territory.. Probably Level 3/4 or maybe FSD.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

You sound a lot like me. I have been a Subaru fan my entire life and bleed World Rally Blue, I've owned 5 so far, 12 if you count the ones I grew up with via my parents. I still have my "bought as new" 2002 WRX with a VF34 and supporting mods. It used to be such a joy to drive and I love(d) the sound of the boxer engine. We also have a 2010 STI wagon (that was my wife's car.) That car used to be so damned fast.

Our S 100 D has absolutely turned our world upside down and I never expected it to be this life-changing.

I am now planning on keeping my 2002 WRX for one more winter, then sell it in the spring and pick up a used Fiat 500e because I am totally sold on electric. (I also drive <15 miles a day to a train station, so something like the 500e will suit me well.) We'll hang onto the STI until Model 3s start being reasonably available (I've got an early registration date reservation on it, but will wait for AWD or longer.)

Bottom line: We (my wife and I and our 2 small kids) are completely sold on electric. We are totally sold on Tesla. We loved our Subarus and would totally entertain an electric Subaru if they ever release one. I love the brand, I love the company, I love everything they stand for, but I am now totally disgusted with ICE vehicles and just can't see them as a viable way forward.

I'm thinking of doing a "new MS owner, 3000 miles under the belt" post in a few weeks when we cross that threshold, but we are a family of active, outdoorsy, snowboarders, bicycle riders, kayakers, etc. We are "Subaru people" through and through, and the Model S is just an ideal car for us for all of the reasons you mention. (You can be sure we will be using our Thule roof box on the Model S too, which is why an X wasn't really an option for us, plus we just don't like SUVs.)

We just returned from our first real family road trip from PA to VT and back, and Autopilot (2.0) was blissful. I feel so bad for the folks who have been having crappy experiences and poor performance and truly believe something is wrong with their cars. It never tried to kill us, it didn't run us off the road, it didn't slam on the brakes inexplicably, it didn't summon Satan or try to divide by zero. It's also not FSD and it's not going to make you toast in the morning, but it is an amazing driver aid, especially on long highway trips, and it completely transformed a trip we've been making multiple times per year over the last decade+

I fully expect AP2 to improve over the coming months and years knowing full well that AP3 or whatever may ultimately be called will "do it better," but we're very happy with the car we have right now. As folks with AP1 can attest, you can keep looking over the horizon at the next big thing, all the while they've been enjoying AP1 for thousands and thousands of miles.

 

[Bebop]

It literally doesn’t matter. Regardless if you have 2.0 or higher. It will be self driving capable.

One thing for certain is 1.0 is not self driving capable.

So buy the car and have no worry. You’ll be constantly on the sidelines waiting for the rest of your life for the next big thing. if you buy new you will get 2.5 at the moment.

 

[azred]

I'd wait for AP 3.5. It will have most of the bugs in 3.0 ironed out and will be true Level 5 autonomy. It should eliminate the need for Silver Alerts.

 

[Sunshine State]

I'm not trying to knock AP2 or 2.5 because AP2 will drive you down the highway now and it is amazing as long as you don't have AP1 to compare. Depending on how long you keep the car probably none of them will be full self driving unless you keep it forever and by that time a Toyota Corrolla will come standard with FSD. The one that works the best now is AP1 and it may be that way for quite a while. When I was buying our second AP Tesla our Tesla OA said AP2 was just updated, all sorted out and it was just as good as our AP1 Model X. After a test drive it was very evident AP2 isn't ready yet. The promise that AP2 or 2.5 will work is just that. There is a good chance they will eventually get it working but by that time I will be ready to trade our AP1 cars in. Right now the best performing option is still AP1 unless you want to buy a system that the next owner may only get to fully use.

 

[boaterva]

BTW, anyone that has a reservation for a 3, I suggest not canceling it. You are a lot ahead of people starting now and you can always just not order and keep your place on top of the heap when your turn comes up!

 

[gaswalla]

I understand the situation... I'm waiting for the iPhone XI...

 

[boaterva]

I understand the situation... I'm waiting for the iPhone XI...

Actually, totally OT, I am also. Got an 8 Plus.