Should I Just Wait 'Til Q1 2020 to Order?

[FutureShock]

Want an M3 LR AWD. Thinking about ordering one in the next week or so, so as to have one delivered by year's end and get the $1875 Fed tax credit that still remains 'til then.

But, now I'm thinking maybe I should hold off until Q1 2020. My reasoning:

1 – Tesla currently lists a waiting time of 6-10 weeks. We're right up against the high end of that right now. Could easily see Tesla's delivery times 'slip', and miss out on the tax credit.

2 – Even if they do get it delivered by Dec 31, what if I inspect the vehicle, find some significant flaws, and refuse to take delivery? That would ace me out of the tax credit too I'd think, and seems a very real possibility considering Tesla's significant paint and panel-fit issues.

3 – Tesla seems to have some history of lowering prices to offset the loss of various stages of the tax credit. So, seems quite possible that there'll be a price cut sometime in Q1. Which would sure be better than getting NOTHING if Tesla can't deliver a car in delivery-worthy condition by Dec 31. Of course, there's no guarantee of said price cut, or it could be quite small even if it happens, to be fair.

So, what do you guys (and gals) think?
Do I roll the dice on an order now, or wait for a price-cut in early 2020? What say ye?
.

 

[Kiwiadventure]

Tesla is raising the price of the Standard Range Plus Model 3 by $500.
If you wait some more you may even pay more.

 

[Mr. Burrito]

I had the same dilemma. I figured its worth the non-refundable $100 to try to save $2875 ($1875 Fed, $1000 for my state). If it doesn't make it by Dec. 31st or if the car has too many defects, then I can just cancel. There's no telling if Tesla is going to discount the model 3 in 2020.

 

[iamroy]

I'm in the same boat. My other big issue is that I'm gone most of December, so I won't be available to take delivery of the car. I'd read that if you do that, you can't get the same car for a year, so I don't want to mess that up.

I was honestly ready to order over the weekend, but I think I'm going to wait until closer to the end of the Quarter to see how things are panning out.

 

[Needsdecaf]

Historically that delivery time listed on the website is very conservative. Odds are you will be matched with a car quickly.

 

[ewoodrick]

Flat out, I see no advantages to waiting to Jan 1. That’s probably going to be one of the more expensive times to order.
Best would be the end of the quarter, but with delivery location focus changing and tax credit ending, right now may be the best
Does even a few thousand dollars make such a big difference? If so, then you should probably be looking at some other vehicle.

The vast majority of cars are delivered with essentially no defects to happy customers.

I see absolutely no advantages to waiting right now. The worst is that you wouldn’t have a Tesla to drive

 

[Amyshubby]

The vast majority of cars are delivered with essentially no defects to happy customers.

I see absolutely no advantages to waiting right now. The worst is that you wouldn’t have a Tesla to drive

+1

Exactly what I was going to write. The "fit and finish" problems seem to be the exception now, not the norm.

Also, I was back and forth on my decision (I've had the car for three weeks) and every time I drive it, it makes me happy!

 

[mreynolds767]

Want an M3 LR AWD. Thinking about ordering one in the next week or so, so as to have one delivered by year's end and get the $1875 Fed tax credit that still remains 'til then.

But, now I'm thinking maybe I should hold off until Q1 2020. My reasoning:

1 – Tesla currently lists a waiting time of 6-10 weeks. We're right up against the high end of that right now. Could easily see Tesla's delivery times 'slip', and miss out on the tax credit.

2 – Even if they do get it delivered by Dec 31, what if I inspect the vehicle, find some significant flaws, and refuse to take delivery? That would ace me out of the tax credit too I'd think, and seems a very real possibility considering Tesla's significant paint and panel-fit issues.

3 – Tesla seems to have some history of lowering prices to offset the loss of various stages of the tax credit. So, seems quite possible that there'll be a price cut sometime in Q1. Which would sure be better than getting NOTHING if Tesla can't deliver a car in delivery-worthy condition by Dec 31. Of course, there's no guarantee of said price cut, or it could be quite small even if it happens, to be fair.

So, what do you guys (and gals) think?
Do I roll the dice on an order now, or wait for a price-cut in early 2020? What say ye?
.

1.) Very unlikely. If you are in the US and order today, you have a 99% chance or greater of getting your car or a similar equal AWD car before end of Q4.
Telsa's goal is to deliver all cars made in Q4 in Q4 that is why delivery times are long at the start of a quarter and short at the end of a quarter.

2.) Very unlikely. You know how picky you are, but the actual cases of cars rejected is tiny.

3.) With Telsa you never know. If you were looking for the SR, I would say odds of price reduction is less but with AWD there is probably some room for them to move if they deem it necessary to offset the rebate. I could see them reducing the AWD model by $1000 or $1500 at some point in Q1 ; though suspect if it happens it probably happens later in the quarter rather than the start of it ; so that means even more time without a new car. Is a chance you are taking vs. the guarantee.

 

[dandrewk]

3 – Tesla seems to have some history of lowering prices to offset the loss of various stages of the tax credit. So, seems quite possible that there'll be a price cut sometime in Q1. Which would sure be better than getting NOTHING if Tesla can't deliver a car in delivery-worthy condition by Dec 31. Of course, there's no guarantee of said price cut, or it could be quite small even if it happens, to be fair.

So, what do you guys (and gals) think?
Do I roll the dice on an order now, or wait for a price-cut in early 2020? What say ye?
.

That reasoning -might- be counter-productive. Last year, Musk promised that all cars ordered by 10/15 would be delivered to qualify for the full tax credit. Near the end of the year he tweeted "“If Tesla committed delivery & customer made good faith efforts to receive before year end, Tesla will cover the tax credit difference.” The tax credit is much less this year, so it's reasonable to assume the same deal will be offered this year.

So, if they are promising "within 10 weeks", that sounds like they are "committed". But only if you make a "good faith effort". IOW, order now. Right now!

Elon Musk says Tesla to pay customers for missed tax credits

At the beginning of this year Tesla dropped the price of all their vehicles by $2000. Not as good as the $7500 credit, but made their cars a bit more affordable in light of the reduced credit. Since they have already increased the price of some trim lines and options recently, I seriously doubt it will happen again next year.

Tesla reduces prices in the US as tax credit starts to phase out, Model 3 now starts at $44,000 - Electrek

tldr; Order now. Right now!

 

[Adam3]

I predict $3k price drop in February 2020.

 

[jonquiljo]

I don’t predict anything as the backlog in the US is growing, growing, growing - and the lack of cars is probably softening demand as the backlog grows. You can’t outthink Tesla as Tesla doesn’t act normally.

Order the car today, you may just get it by the end of the year. The backlog of orders will probably not result in lowered prices. In fact this “self-inflicted” US backlog is partially artificial - as Tesla apparently has never held back North American production this long.

I just don't see any possible price decreases - and a thousand here or there (if it happened) is really not much of an incentive anymore.

 

[George75]

I don't believe we shouldn't ever get too caught up in the "if I wait longer" argument when it comes to technology. Think about it, if we did that with our phones, our laptops or any other technology we'd never be ahead. If you look at prices three months or six months from now there might be a better deal if you waited but when should that waiting stop to get the best deal? We can't wait forever just 6 - 10 weeks lol. We can always make more $ but we can't buy more time to enjoy the small things in life.

 

[jonquiljo]

I don't believe we shouldn't ever get too caught up in the "if I wait longer" argument when it comes to technology. Think about it, if we did that with our phones, our laptops or any other technology we'd never be ahead. If you look at prices three months or six months from now there might be a better deal if you waited but when should that waiting stop to get the best deal? We can't wait forever just 6 - 10 weeks lol. We can always make more $ but we can't buy more time to enjoy the small things in life.

Yes, you can't wait for the future. There is only now. Just don't go broke in the process. Trust me, now is all we have.

 

[ewoodrick]

I predict $3k price drop in February 2020.

Not sure why you would expect this. The tax credit is only dropping by $1850. State incentives still apply. They are still selling a lot of cars, taking more orders than they can deliver.

 

[BikerPeaBody]

when do the 2020 model drop or be offered to buy?

 

[jonquiljo]

If Tesla is building a backlog of orders in the US and the world, then I highly doubt they will be dropping prices. Come Wednesday when they report earnings - everyone seems worried that even though they delivered the most cars ever in Q3, their profits will be lower.

 

[mnml]

I had the same concerns but placed my order on 10/16. I am certain Tesla will be able to deliver before year end. Rather get my order queued and enjoy the car sooner than later.

 

[puppers]

I waited a while to order mine too, but decided that the M3 is selling too well for them to bring back any incentives like the S or X have. I ordered a P3D on 10/14, the wait begins! Luckily my X has unlimited SC’ing, but still T_T.

 

[Jazz3D]

when do the 2020 model drop or be offered to buy?

Tesla doesn't do model years. They upgrade continuously. And with OTA software updates, it really doesn't matter much. A Dec to January difference would be the same as a June to July difference.

 

[vickh]

I had the same dilemma. I figured its worth the non-refundable $100 to try to save $2875 ($1875 Fed, $1000 for my state). If it doesn't make it by Dec. 31st or if the car has too many defects, then I can just cancel. There's no telling if Tesla is going to discount the model 3 in 2020.

they probably won't discount the SR. It's already a loss leader. Perhaps the other trims/upgrades. Q2 was the best time to buy the SR with the max fed credit

But if you're interested in other trims it's a crap shoot for Q1 20