Should I pull the trigger?

[e-FTW]

Honestly, I wasn't impressed by AP. Autopilot, in my books, would mean full autonomy. If I have to constantly keep my hands on the wheel to override the AP, it defeats the purpose. I'm hoping AP 2.0 brings more fault tolerance but that might mean hardware upgrades.

What sold me on it was how little fatigue I accumulated driving to LA last December, a few weeks after it got enabled. I took the long way down there, spent 11 hours in the car, and got to my hotel at midnight. I was not tired in the least and it took me a while (it took scotch) to get to bed. I can say the same off my 50 mile each way commute that I do most days of the week. Those are hard to measure, but they are fact and make a huge difference for me. And if you happen to be stuck in traffic, oh my does it help there too. The mind-numbing minutia of creeping forward, keeping your distance, all of that also takes a toll we don't really feel. I then mainly focus on watching for lane-splitters coming from behind, and give them a wide berth. Then re-enable AP. I agree that the system has its limits, but the current system helps me enough to be sold on it enough to accept its limitations. Yup, I'd love more of everything, and longer distance as well. My 3 should have that...
I keep one or two hands on the wheel, in a relaxed position using the armrests like in all my previous cars. All the time, I swear...

 

[ShotgunF15E]

You seem to have bought one recently. Would you have rather held off in retrospect?

Had I known or been told at the time that additional hardware was needed for full autopilot operations (aka autopilot 2.0), then YES, I would have held off BUYING a model S. I would have done a 3 year lease on my current S instead of buying it. 3 years from now I would have then bought one.

I was LED to BELIEVE by the salesman at the Tesla store that ALL necessary HARDWARE was already installed in the car and the only thing required was a SOFTWARE OVER THE AIR upgrade to bring the autopilot to it's desired end state and functionality as Elon has been promising.

 

[Mickie]

Had I known or been told at the time that additional hardware was needed for full autopilot operations (aka autopilot 2.0), then YES, I would have held off BUYING a model S. I would have done a 3 year lease on my current S instead of buying it. 3 years from now I would have then bought one.

I was LED to BELIEVE by the salesman at the Tesla store that ALL necessary HARDWARE was already installed in the car and the only thing required was a SOFTWARE OVER THE AIR upgrade to bring the autopilot to it's desired end state and functionality as Elon has been promising.

Has the hardware thing, atleast for the stop light/ stop sign recognition for been confirmed or still speculation?

 

[Austin Powers]

Has the hardware thing, atleast for the stop light/ stop sign recognition for been confirmed or still speculation?

Here is a 'rumor' article: Tesla Autopilot 2.0 is coming this year

 

[AB4EJ]

My two cents - which is probably worth even less - is...

• The Model 3 is a bit (as in a year or two) further away than Tesla says. It will take them longer to produce quality vehicles in this kind of quantity than they think. (And this would be consistent with all of their previous product launches). I have been involved in a similar launch. A lot of problems will be due to suppliers struggling to meet the planned run rate (and with quality parts). Also at the stated price points, costs also have to be held down. (Don't be surprised if we see some supplier bankruptcies, which introduces further delays).

• The air suspension is a toss-up, really only worth the cost if you regularly go over very uneven surfaces. I change mine only once in a great while.

• Autopilot: at its current level of features, I find it extremely useful and nice on interstates, for a dramatic reduction in fatigue on trips - I love it for that application. On any other kind of road, I believe you are taking an unwarranted risk to use it. I have noticed that on roads with a lot of curves, it overcorrects a lot and struggles to keep the car on the road.

• If you are anxious to get into a Tesla, one way a lot of people have done it is to get a used (CPO) one, so you an enjoy such a great car for a few years until Model 3 is available (in quantity and quality).

 

[ABCCBA]

@Austin Powers My opinion is I do not know why anyone would 'buy' a Tesla and finance it for more than 4 years. A lease is the only rational way to go. These cars are improving too fast for the old ICE mindset of 'I will keep this car for 7 - 10 years'. I call BS on that. It is exactly like saying I have an Intel 286 PC with Windows 95 and I will keep it forever. Yeah right. lol

Order a Model S with whatever options you want. Lease it for three years and then hand the keys over to Tesla in 3 years and do it again on whatever is the latest and greatest.

The buyer's remorse will come into play in three to four years when you find out your $80,000 car is worth $35,000 and you still owe $50,000 on your 7-year auto loan. JMHO

Be smart with your money!

 

[Science fan]

As much as I really like the Model S, I still find it too expensive and would rather save up towards the Model 3 purchase. Instead, I pulled the trigger on a CPO Ford Focus Electric which is perfect for my short range daily commute and quite a nice little car.

There are lots of cheaper options out there which make the expensive S unappealing to me at the moment, and knowing (that I'm not made of money, yet, and) that Tesla cars would only get better and more advanced in just a couple of years.

While Ford advertises 76 miles of range for their Focus Electric, Car and Driver was only able to get 64 miles before it ran out of juice. True the Ford is cheap, but how can you put a dollar value on the safety of your family? The base Model S is likely the safest production car ever produced. Even the S60 is rated for 210 (honest, unlike Ford) miles of range. If money is a concern, I would recommend the base model S60. Same basic car as those selling for over $100K, safe with lots and lots of room. Adding only the more comfortable seating and autopilot would make sense to me in your situation.

 

[Three60guy]

Here is my take. (coming from someone who just took ownership of a Model S):

Buyers remorse? I was worried about this too. But last week I took ownership of my MS 70D and took it home. This vehicle has exceeded every expectation. Yes, I have air suspension, auto pilot, all wheel drive and a couple of other options. I personally like the feel of the air suspension versus coil suspension. Also, I have programmed it to lower itself at all speeds above 50mph. Essentially, all freeway and highway speeds which will increase range. How much? I don't know but I can tell you that it rides very smooth and quiet.

Finance versus lease? With Tesla offering Allient Credit Union financing at 1.49%, that is half of what typical financing would currently cost. I believe that offer ends July 15, 2016. That is cheap money. I have leased twice in the last 2 cars but I can not justify the lease when I have such cheap money I can use today.

Wife and I took our first short trip over the past weekend. We used auto pilot and was amazed how well it works. Yes, this car may or may not have the hardware it needs to go full auto pilot in the coming years but you will never, ever, get to a point where there is nothing else to look forward to. Simply put, if you constantly put off a purchase, you will be waiting an entire lifetime. Pull that trigger. Enjoy the ride. You only live once.

Cheers

 

[Cnasty]

I was with you. I am by no means "Tesla rich" as pundits assume everyone is that owns a Tesla but I am very smart with my money.

That being said I took a test drive and committed the cardinal sin in doing so unless I was absolutely ready to buy. Well after the test drive it MADE me absolutely ready to buy. I have about a 22 mile round trip commute. Not much but ridden with traffic in a very busy Dallas market. AP has had my attention after watching it excel in stop and go traffic.

Also, with Alliant and their rates it made economical sense to take the loan and then work with that rate to have the money where I want it versus a huge 40-50% down payment that I normally do. I like the flexibility.

This will easily be the most expensive car I have owned but plan to do so for a very long time if Tesla is committed to making it last the 8 years it promises. Also moving towards an EV family in getting my wife the 3 whenever our reserve is called upon which should be higher now since we got the S.

I was the one balking at the idea of such a large car payment but my wife put it into perspective. I work hard, we have 2 amazing kids, we have very little debt, and it is the safest car on the road for our family and you can have a ton of life changing fun in it as well.

Ordered last night and even this morning I was questioning was now the right time. In 6-8 weeks, hopefully sooner, that question will be answered.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

While Ford advertises 76 miles of range for their Focus Electric, Car and Driver was only able to get 64 miles before it ran out of juice.

I'm able to get over 80 miles on a single charge rather easily with normal driving, and in the mid 70s with semi-aggressive driving. The key is to drive in L mode for stronger regen, instead of the typical D mode which lessens the regen. Apparently, the folks at Car & Driver didn't read the instruction manual.

I agree that you can't beat the S in terms of safety. Don't get me wrong, I still envy those who enjoy having a Tesla today, but to spend so much $ to buy the Model S now and then purchasing the Model 3 two years later is still quite expensive. If I save up for the next 2 years, which IMO is not a very long time, I will be able to spend on more options for the Model 3.

To each his own but I thoroughly enjoy the FFE and I'm willing to put up with this "sacrifice" for the next two years. Hopefully this info helps those who belong in my humble tax bracket.

 

[ApauloThirteen]

I'm able to get over 80 miles on a single charge rather easily with normal driving, and in the mid 70s with semi-aggressive driving. The key is to drive in L mode for stronger regen, instead of the typical D mode which lessens the regen. Apparently, the folks at Car & Driver didn't read the instruction manual.

I agree that you can't beat the S in terms of safety. Don't get me wrong, I still envy those who enjoy having a Tesla today, but to spend so much $ to buy the Model S now and then purchasing the Model 3 two years later is still quite expensive. If I save up for the next 2 years, which IMO is not a very long time, I will be able to spend on more options for the Model 3.

To each his own but I thoroughly enjoy the FFE and I'm willing to put up with this "sacrifice" for the next two years. Hopefully this info helps those who belong in my humble tax bracket.

Agree. Every plug in and EV is one less car dependent on oil. Every one I see on the road gets a nod, we're at the very least driving down gas costs for the ICE drivers. We can all get along.

Happy to report tomorrow I'm going to introduce the Tesla brand to my friend and set her up for a test drive (my first as well). I hope she's convinced and I secretly hope one doesn't follow us home. Another friend said they're like puppies - once you see them you need to bring one home. Wish us luck.

(Drive a Volt, Model 3 reservation, might not be able to wait and am eyeballing the S 60D).

 

[Cnasty]

Model S ordered and 3 reserved for my wife whenever we get that call.

Can't wait to never visit a gas station again unless it's for a slurpee or air in my tire.

 

[ApauloThirteen]

I was with you. I am by no means "Tesla rich" as pundits assume everyone is that owns a Tesla but I am very smart with my money.

That being said I took a test drive and committed the cardinal sin in doing so unless I was absolutely ready to buy. Well after the test drive it MADE me absolutely ready to buy. I have about a 22 mile round trip commute. Not much but ridden with traffic in a very busy Dallas market. AP has had my attention after watching it excel in stop and go traffic.

Also, with Alliant and their rates it made economical sense to take the loan and then work with that rate to have the money where I want it versus a huge 40-50% down payment that I normally do. I like the flexibility.

This will easily be the most expensive car I have owned but plan to do so for a very long time if Tesla is committed to making it last the 8 years it promises. Also moving towards an EV family in getting my wife the 3 whenever our reserve is called upon which should be higher now since we got the S.

I was the one balking at the idea of such a large car payment but my wife put it into perspective. I work hard, we have 2 amazing kids, we have very little debt, and it is the safest car on the road for our family and you can have a ton of life changing fun in it as well.

Ordered last night and even this morning I was questioning was now the right time. In 6-8 weeks, hopefully sooner, that question will be answered.

Would like to add that if you keep your car a longer period of time, the depreciation isn't as painful. Now if the S battery pack is easily replaceable (held by 48 bolts (I think that's what they are saying in the factory tour) then in 8-10 yrs, get a new battery pack for what, $8-12K (probably less) & presto, new car for another 8-10 yrs. Or at least one that can be resold for a decent sum....

Unlike some ev manufacturers that really don't want a full pack replacement and won't support new batteries in old cars. <cough cough> Nissan <cough cough>.

 

[e-FTW]

(Drive a Volt, Model 3 reservation, might not be able to wait and am eyeballing the S 60D).

Good luck indeed! Can't wait for your separate ordering thread. Will see you there!

 

[Three60guy]

but to spend so much $ to buy the Model S now and then purchasing the Model 3 two years later is still quite expensive. If I save up for the next 2 years, which IMO is not a very long time, I will be able to spend on more options for the Model 3.

Oh to be young again. I'm an official old fart so I didn't want to wait any longer to get my Tesla. Heck waiting 2 more years could be a decent percentage of my "rest of life". I'm 69. So, I pulled the trigger and I am absolutely enjoying the experience of driving the Tesla that I just got last week. Just my perspective on things from the old fart point of view. hehe

 

[SΞXY P100D]

Oh to be young again.

Oh to be rich and retired...

 

[Mickie]

@Austin Powers My opinion is I do not know why anyone would 'buy' a Tesla and finance it for more than 4 years. A lease is the only rational way to go. These cars are improving too fast for the old ICE mindset of 'I will keep this car for 7 - 10 years'. I call BS on that. It is exactly like saying I have an Intel 286 PC with Windows 95 and I will keep it forever. Yeah right. lol

Order a Model S with whatever options you want. Lease it for three years and then hand the keys over to Tesla in 3 years and do it again on whatever is the latest and greatest.

The buyer's remorse will come into play in three to four years when you find out your $80,000 car is worth $35,000 and you still owe $50,000 on your 7-year auto loan. JMHO

Be smart with your money!

I thought I was being smart with my money? I discovered with financing I can have approximately my 20% down payment back in 3 years vs taking a torch to all of it with a lease. I took sales of other 3 year old Tesla's with normal mileage (many with less features and no dual motor) to get a rough gauge on where my depreciation will be at in 3 years.

In the first page of this thread, I linked the thread where I ran the numbers. If I'm missing something, pray let me know! I'll lease if it's the more sensible path, but at this point I just don't see it.

 

[ABCCBA]

Okay, here is my analysis, for a straight up loan versus lease with no trade or down payment.

Assumption: Model S 85D from Telsa Website, $101,950 cash price

Purchase: $101,950 plus 6% sales tax plus guess of $433 for TTT = $108,500 to be financed @ 1.99%

Lease: $1,228 per month plus 6% sales tax = $1,301.68 per month plus $7,923 due at lease signing

Now, let's look 36 months out from the acquisition date:

LEASE
-----------------------------
Lease Costs: $54,783.48
Balance Due: $0
Total Cost of Leasing: $54,783.48

Turn Keys in, Get Brand New Model Car
36 months * 1301.68 = 46,860.48
Initial Lease Fees = $7,923.00
------------------------------

FINANCE
----------------------------------------
72 month Finance Costs: $57,600
Balance of Loan: $55,867.54
Estimated Value of Car: $47,900
Loss of Equity: $7,967.54
Total Cost of Financing: $65,567.54

36 months * $1,600 = $57,600
Using Tesla RVG of 50% Base and 43% Options
Base $70,000 * 50% = $35,000
options $30,000 * 43% = $12,900
-----------------------------------------

So, if at 36 months you wanted out of the Model S and into another, leasing would save you roughly $10,785 dollars - LEASE WINS!

Now, Let's look at 72 months. The financed vehicle would now be fully paid off. A Leasee would now be finishing up their 36 months on a three year newer vehicle.

72 Month Comparison

Lease 1 Cost: $54,783.48
Lease 2 Cost: $54,783.48 3-year newer car
Total Lease Costs: $109,566.96
Drove two different cars for only 3-years each

Finance: $115,200 (72 months * 1,600)
Estimated Value of 6 year old Car: unknown miles - (use any number you want)
Maintenance Cost after 48 Month Warranty Expires: unknown
Drive one car for 6 years

My personal choice is to not drive a 6-year old car out of warranty, but rather upgrade to newer technology every three years. As you can see, I have a newer, better vehicle with no maintenance costs and no real financial difference plus/minus a few thousand dollars at most either way. In my opinion, LEASE WINS AGAIN

I thought I was being smart with my money? I discovered with financing I can have approximately my 20% down payment back in 3 years vs taking a torch to all of it with a lease. I took sales of other 3 year old Tesla's with normal mileage (many with less features and no dual motor) to get a rough gauge on where my depreciation will be at in 3 years.

In the first page of this thread, I linked the thread where I ran the numbers. If I'm missing something, pray let me know! I'll lease if it's the more sensible path, but at this point I just don't see it.

 

[Mickie]

Okay, here is my analysis, for a straight up loan versus lease with no trade or down payment.

Assumption: Model S 85D from Telsa Website, $101,950 cash price

Purchase: $101,950 plus 6% sales tax plus guess of $433 for TTT = $108,500 to be financed @ 1.99%

Lease: $1,228 per month plus 6% sales tax = $1,301.68 per month plus $7,923 due at lease signing

Now, let's look 36 months out from the acquisition date:

LEASE
-----------------------------
Lease Costs: $54,783.48
Balance Due: $0
Total Cost of Leasing: $54,783.48

Turn Keys in, Get Brand New Model Car
36 months * 1301.68 = 46,860.48
Initial Lease Fees = $7,923.00
------------------------------

FINANCE
----------------------------------------
72 month Finance Costs: $57,600
Balance of Loan: $55,867.54
Estimated Value of Car: $47,900
Loss of Equity: $7,967.54
Total Cost of Financing: $65,567.54

36 months * $1,600 = $57,600
Using Tesla RVG of 50% Base and 43% Options
Base $70,000 * 50% = $35,000
options $30,000 * 43% = $12,900
-----------------------------------------

So, if at 36 months you wanted out of the Model S and into another, leasing would save you roughly $10,785 dollars - LEASE WINS!

Now, Let's look at 72 months. The financed vehicle would now be fully paid off. A Leasee would now be finishing up their 36 months on a three year newer vehicle.

72 Month Comparison

Lease 1 Cost: $54,783.48
Lease 2 Cost: $54,783.48 3-year newer car
Total Lease Costs: $109,566.96
Drove two different cars for only 3-years each

Finance: $115,200 (72 months * 1,600)
Estimated Value of 6 year old Car: unknown miles - (use any number you want)
Maintenance Cost after 48 Month Warranty Expires: unknown
Drive one car for 6 years

My personal choice is to not drive a 6-year old car out of warranty, but rather upgrade to newer technology every three years. As you can see, I have a newer, better vehicle with no maintenance costs and no real financial difference plus/minus a few thousand dollars at most either way. In my opinion, LEASE WINS AGAIN

Interesting take and thanks for that! The only disconnect I really see is that you're using Tesla's RVG which is a raw deal. Realistically I believe your scenario under financing with 0 down would be break even at worst, where the lease you lose your upfront costs entirely. I can't crunch your numbers at the moment so just giving it an overview, mind you. But I'm going off past sales with inferior technology that are yielding promising resale values which probably beats forecasting.

I must note, in no way am I fighting you, but rather promoting healthy arguments to help us all make our best decisions! Let me know what you think

 

[ABCCBA]

Thanks for the kind reply. I am not argumentative, either. It's just a discussion.

There are pros and cons of lease versus financing. There are some circumstances were each works better. However, for most average driving car owners, a lease affords you a way to lower your monthly payment and get out of cars a bit more often and upgrade to newer models.

This is especially true with all of the newer vehicles, including Tesla. They are so technologically advanced, and the technology keeps improving, that in a year or two's time the technology is near obsolete. Which coincidentally drives the future value down, as buyers are mostly looking for the advanced features. Look what happened to the Non-AP Model S. You can get them for in the 40s if you look hard enough.

So, people have to rethink the way that they own and finance vehicles.

I have owned over 20 cars since I started driving. I don't know too many where I actually made money above-break even, when I sold them. In the past five years, I have been doing leases or lease swaps. It has worked wonderfully and I am always driving a car that is under manufacturer's warranty.

The car manufacturer's and dealers have the game rigged. They know exactly what the price of vehicles are sold for and the amortization of the payments and the 'depreciation' of the vehicle. Do you think it is a coincidence that if you do a straight up financed purchase, that the re-sale value of the vehicle and the balance of the loan are such that you are seldom ahead? And, if you put money down, isn't it funny how you rarely are able to get that same amount back?

Now, if you can negotiate a great deal and get 0% financing, then by all means use OPM. But, odds are, the dealers have worked the numbers seven ways from Sunday and are still going to win down the road.

JMHO

Interesting take and thanks for that! The only disconnect I really see is that you're using Tesla's RVG which is a raw deal. Realistically I believe your scenario under financing with 0 down would be break even at worst, where the lease you lose your upfront costs entirely. I can't crunch your numbers at the moment so just giving it an overview, mind you. But I'm going off past sales with inferior technology that are yielding promising resale values which probably beats forecasting.

I must note, in no way am I fighting you, but rather promoting healthy arguments to help us all make our best decisions! Let me know what you think