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Should I roll the dice?

Discussion in 'Model Y' started by richardb1285, Jan 3, 2020.

  1. richardb1285

    richardb1285 Member

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    I'm currently stationed overseas and will be returning to the US in November 2020 (just in time for the projected release). My wife really wants the model Y, but we will for sure need to get her a car pretty much immediately upon return to the States. If we were to put the order in now what are you guys thinking the chances of us getting something quick? Also in the case they start releasing them earlier we obviously wouldn't be able to take delivery until we come back. This is our first Tesla so the whole ordering a car and not just buying one at a dealer and driving away is a new concept.
     
    • Like x 1
  2. reardencode

    reardencode Supporting Member

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    If the car is ready before you're ready, you can defer delivery.

    In terms of how likely a reservation placed now would be filled in November... No way to know. They haven't released reservation numbers, production sequence (eg. LR vs. AWD vs. P first), nor specific date for production start yet.
     
    • Informative x 1
  3. richardb1285

    richardb1285 Member

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    Yeah that's kind of what I've been reading. I don't want to put down a deposit if they are just going to start shipping early and I keep deferring for six months, but I also don't want to miss the chance at having one as close as possible to November.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. ewoodrick

    ewoodrick Well-Known Member

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    How many are in line in front of your order? You could be waiting a year once they start delivery
     
  5. richardb1285

    richardb1285 Member

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    I am still deciding if I should put in the order now or wait to see when they actually start releasing the car since we need delivery of the vehicle to be in November 2020.
     
  6. HillClimb

    HillClimb Member

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    Where do you recommend checking your reservation against others?
     
  7. EnrgyNDpndnce

    EnrgyNDpndnce Member

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    Unless Tesla have changed the rules, the $2500 reservation fee is fully refundable. Given that you stated your wife really wants a Model Y (and the whole “happy wife, happy life” mantra) it seems you don’t have much to lose by reserving now, assuming you can live without the $2500 for a while. As others have stated, you can defer delivery on the off chance it is ready before you are. The more likely scenario is that your car will not be ready by November and you’ll have to do some kind of short term rental or get your refund and buy something else. I do believe that the earlier you place your reservation, the more likely you are to take delivery in November. HOWEVR, as those of us who lived thru the 2018 Model 3 ramp up and deliveries know, Tesla does NOT go in order. They produce batches or cars with certain specs and try to match them with reservation holders as close to the order as possible, but logistics and other factors play an important role.

    I was in a (sort of) similar situation in 2018. I knew I needed a car by the end of 2018 and given that there were hundreds of thousands of reservation holders ahead of me already I wasn’t sure if it was worth making the reservation. I pulled the trigger June 29, 2018 figuring I’d probably have to buy something else because it would be well into 2019 before my name was called. But because I opted for the LR AWD and Tesla were prioritizing more expensive builds, I took delivery October 26, 2018 so just under 4 months later. Not saying this will happen for you and the Model Y production and delivery ramp may be completely different from Model 3, but I am saying I AM SO GLAD I STOPPED DEBATING AND MADE THE RESERVATION WHEN I DID. Just 14+ months later and I have almost 65k miles on my Tesla, and it is still the best car I have ever owned.

    Make the reservation man, you won’t regret it.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. jboy210

    jboy210 Supporting Member

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    Make the reservation and cancel it if the timing does not match up. The reservation fee is refundable.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    I think the chances are pretty good you could get one in your desired timeframe if you order now. Once deliveries start (possibly only a couple months from now,) I'm expecting the orders to increase substantially. As others have noted above, you can defer delivery if they are ready before you are - and I believe the deposit is still refundable until the car starts production.
     
    • Like x 1
  10. Alex#$

    Alex#$ Member

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    I'm in almost the same boat as you. I'm set to PCS from Alaska in October 2020 and i'm intending take delivery once I get to my next assignment. I finally bit the bullet and placed my reservation on January 2nd... but i regret not doing it sooner! IMO, you really have nothing to lose by placing the $2500 reservation which is fully refundable. If prodction gets delayed as with the M3, you can always cancel and shop for something else.
     
  11. doghousePVD

    doghousePVD My grandfather’s car

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    New England, USA
    Make the reservation and assume the timing will be wrong.

    You might have a happy surprise.
     
  12. richardb1285

    richardb1285 Member

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    So I went to put in my order today and it required an address. Since I am still overseas I only have an APO box and don't know where I will even be going next so doesn't look like I can even put in an order before I get back to the states.
     
  13. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    I bet if you call Tesla they'd work with you.
     
  14. Alex#$

    Alex#$ Member

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    I think this is more just like a billing address for your card. I'm willing to bet by the time Tesla reaches out to you to actually start the paperwork and assigin you a car, you will likely have your new physical address.. or at least the city/state you will be moving to.
     

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