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Should I wait for 2021-2022 Model Y upgrade?

Jeremy3292

Gas Is Slow
Jul 7, 2021
519
467
South Carolina
As Elon himself has said, the worst time to buy a Tesla is during production ramp. That is one of the reasons we placed our order in early July. We will get whatever is most compelling in EVs in a few years. The pace of change and innovation with EVs is incredible.
Why early July? (genuine question)
 
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M-S-M

Member
Jul 24, 2021
162
227
Austin
July 4 … just because that is the day we decided to go ahead and order.

We had been thinking about ordering for a few months. There is no rush or need for a car, so waiting for the giga-Austin MY would have been fine. By the way, I had concluded that waiting meant likely waiting until the latter half of 2022 as I did not want a MY from Austin until after production volumes were already at scale.

We have always bought and kept cars for 10+ years. Part of what led us to go ahead and order is we decided that with EVs, replacing this MY with something new in 3 years made sense.

We ordered before ever test driving a M3 or MY. Once we did test drive, we got a lot more anxious to get the car!
 
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Jeremy3292

Gas Is Slow
Jul 7, 2021
519
467
South Carolina
July 4 … just because that is the day we decided to go ahead and order.

We had been thinking about ordering for a few months. There is no rush or need for a car, so waiting for the giga-Austin MY would have been fine. By the way, I had concluded that waiting meant likely waiting until the latter half of 2022 as I did not want a MY from Austin until after production volumes were already at scale.

We have always bought and kept cars for 10+ years. Part of what led us to go ahead and order is we decided that with EVs, replacing this MY with something new in 3 years made sense.

We ordered before ever test driving a M3 or MY. Once we did test drive, we got a lot more anxious to get the car!
I guess my question was more along the lines of how does early July avoid a production ramp? Did you mean production ramp as in when they ramp up the new Texas Model Y's? I ordered my Model 3 a week ago for ref.
 

M-S-M

Member
Jul 24, 2021
162
227
Austin
Yes, by production ramp I’m referring to the scaling up of production at the giga-Austin plant. No way that an order for a MYP in July would be delivered from Austin.

Congratulations on the M3! 🥳
 
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BMWY

Member
Mar 29, 2021
26
16
Newark
Pre-prod Giga Texas Ys are already floating around and being tested. We will 100% get a Austin Y by EOY, if not sooner. If you can wait, wait.
 

M-S-M

Member
Jul 24, 2021
162
227
Austin
Pre-prod Giga Texas Ys are already floating around and being tested. We will 100% get a Austin Y by EOY, if not sooner. If you can wait, wait.
My advice ...
  1. People should listen to what Elon has been clear about with respect to the quality of Tesla's during production scaling. His take is that buying during production scaling is the worst time for quality to buy a Tesla.
  2. Listen to the last Tesla earnings call with Elon having been clear about there being a set of production issues of about 10% that need to be resolved for the 4680 and that there is a backup plan to ship giga-Austin MYs with 2170s
... and then decide for themselves.
 

Darmie

Super Member
Supporting Member
Jan 13, 2016
2,072
1,376
Clear Lake TX.
It's possible that Elon may provide some information tonight during AI day. Let's all agree to meet back here in the morning and see if we were given a bone.
My advice ...
  1. People should listen to what Elon has been clear about with respect to the quality of Tesla's during production scaling. His take is that buying during production scaling is the worst time for quality to buy a Tesla.
  2. Listen to the last Tesla earnings call with Elon having been clear about there being a set of production issues of about 10% that need to be resolved for the 4680 and that there is a backup plan to ship giga-Austin MYs with 2170s
... and then decide for themselves.
I love your signature line. Hate it for you but love what you've done there.
 

M-S-M

Member
Jul 24, 2021
162
227
Austin
Definitely expect interesting news from AI day! The great thing about Musk — in addition to his pure genius level in so many disciplines — is how bluntly honest he can be at times.

My signature line has become a combo comical update and struggle to make it all fit. We’re not back in Austin until Sep 4, so I’ve been hoping for months for delivery that weekend. If it comes early (highly unlikely now), I’ll gladly rearrange my schedule to be there for delivery.
 

Mrbrock

Active Member
Mar 26, 2020
1,003
693
Napa, CA
I have a 18 model 3 and I'm waiting for the model y to get the new 4680 battery which in god knows when it's actually gonna be released. I did read somewhere that the battery will go through a period where the new battery cells will be tested for reliability... so I guess I'm gonna be waiting a little while longer. I'm optimistic if the overall price will be reduced though.
And once they are reliable they will go into more important (newsworthy) cars than the Y. Plaid+, Roadster, Cybertruck, Semi. Lots of vehicles waiting in line that will likely be deemed more worthy than M3 or MY. Higher prices, longer waits, etc. With supply constraints, they will analyze which vehicles they need to bring to market with the new tech and which ones can stay with the old.
 

M-S-M

Member
Jul 24, 2021
162
227
Austin
It's possible that Elon may provide some information tonight during AI day. Let's all agree to meet back here in the morning and see if we were given a bone.

1 hr 32 min until AI day 🥳 ;)
 

Noflash

Member
Aug 11, 2020
189
125
Denver
The bone given --> Tesla Bot

Target is for a prototype next year
Super f'ing creepy.
1629427287485.png
 
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aswami

Member
Feb 12, 2021
82
75
Phoenix
Purely anecdotal recent experience with a 2020 AWD LR MY with 20-inch wheels:

- Used up 60% battery charge driving 77 miles, about 60 miles over hilly terrain. So, just 128 miles total range over hilly terrain?

- Used 25% battery charge driving 55 miles on city freeway. 220 miles total range in city driving?

Was very surprised to be getting this range. It was a rental with 40 K miles on it already. Would a 2020 MY with 40 K miles lose so much range? Is this the typical MY experience for everyone, or did I get a bad car?

Also learnt that there are superchargers that can take anywhere from 25 minutes all the way to 60 minutes to provide 60% charge. At 30-40 cents per kwh at the supercharger and the range I got from the car, it was more expensive than gas to drive the distance that I did!

Conclusion: I will take every extra mile of range that I can get from any improvement Tesla puts in to the MY - 2-piece casting, structural pack, 4680, whatever they can give me. The around 400 miles I got in my Avalon over the same hilly terrain on a single tank of gas seems like a far dream with a Tesla right now!
 

Darmie

Super Member
Supporting Member
Jan 13, 2016
2,072
1,376
Clear Lake TX.
Purely anecdotal recent experience with a 2020 AWD LR MY with 20-inch wheels:

- Used up 60% battery charge driving 77 miles, about 60 miles over hilly terrain. So, just 128 miles total range over hilly terrain?

- Used 25% battery charge driving 55 miles on city freeway. 220 miles total range in city driving?

Was very surprised to be getting this range. It was a rental with 40 K miles on it already. Would a 2020 MY with 40 K miles lose so much range? Is this the typical MY experience for everyone, or did I get a bad car?

Also learnt that there are superchargers that can take anywhere from 25 minutes all the way to 60 minutes to provide 60% charge. At 30-40 cents per kwh at the supercharger and the range I got from the car, it was more expensive than gas to drive the distance that I did!

Conclusion: I will take every extra mile of range that I can get from any improvement Tesla puts in to the MY - 2-piece casting, structural pack, 4680, whatever they can give me. The around 400 miles I got in my Avalon over the same hilly terrain on a single tank of gas seems like a far dream with a Tesla right now!
Yes. I feel the MY loves the electrons. I can't get any better than 325 wpm on the last 7,000 miles. Here's a screen shot of TeslaFi showing WPM at speed. it's not good. I think for our MY rated range is like 240.

1630523706566.png
 

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SpaceShipDrvr

Member
Aug 1, 2021
77
93
California
Purely anecdotal recent experience with a 2020 AWD LR MY with 20-inch wheels:

- Used up 60% battery charge driving 77 miles, about 60 miles over hilly terrain. So, just 128 miles total range over hilly terrain?

- Used 25% battery charge driving 55 miles on city freeway. 220 miles total range in city driving?

Was very surprised to be getting this range. It was a rental with 40 K miles on it already. Would a 2020 MY with 40 K miles lose so much range? Is this the typical MY experience for everyone, or did I get a bad car?
There are a lot of variables for range. So some questions I have:
- How fast were you driving? Going 85 vs 65 makes a BIG difference. But a lot of Tesla drivers have "led feet" ;) and see much shorter than expected range.
- The hilly terrain - was it mostly uphill, or downhill, or did you end up at roughly the same altitude as before. You'll lose a lot going uphill, but regen braking should give some of it back.

But one thing is sure... it is very difficult to reach Tesla's claimed range numbers without going 50mph without A/C. The practical max range for most seems to be 70-80% of the claimed Tesla EPA range. But it depends on how you drive, and weather/wind can also reduce it further.

But that is all from my online reading, I'm still waiting for my car to be delivered.
 
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Darmie

Super Member
Supporting Member
Jan 13, 2016
2,072
1,376
Clear Lake TX.
But one thing is sure... it is very difficult to reach Tesla's claimed range numbers without going 50mph without A/C. The practical max range for most seems to be 70-80% of the claimed Tesla EPA range. But it depends on how you drive, and weather/wind can also reduce it further.

But that is all from my online reading, I'm still waiting for my car to be delivered.
Congratulations on ordering your Tesla. May your delivery go as planned and is as exciting as it is for most buyers.
I have found that our Model Y is the least efficient Tesla that we have driven. Our 2017 S75RWD was an amazing vehicle that was real close to the expected range. On Highway it was always above 80 to 85 pct efficient. We currently have a MX and I find that to be right near rated range or again, at highway speed, always above 80%. We had a loaner M3 for a while and there was no upsetting it's rated range. But the Model Y is a different beast. It could be the 20in rims running the Comp 4S tires. Part of it could be it has the 980 (performance) motor. Maybe it could be a combination but it sure loves to eat electrons. Look at that chart.
 

wandl

Member
Jul 13, 2021
30
23
Dallas, TX
Just placed my MYSR today, talked to my SA (Plano, TX Tesla location) about the re-design MY and he said
- Gigafactory Austin will be very behind, so he does not anticipate 4680 cells to be in MY till 2023 just because of production issues (high demand + inconsistent supply)
- For those in TX (like me), we will not get Gigafactory Austin products as Texas bans manufacturers from selling directly to consumer (must go via a dealership) meaning Texas new buyers will receive Fremont 2170 MY's (more details on that sale ban here, up for a change in 2023)
 
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