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Should Tesla publish monthly sales numbers?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by jhm, Oct 28, 2014.

  1. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Should Tesla publish monthly sales numbers in a timely manner, consistent with standard practice within the auto industry? At this point, I suspect that long-term shareholders would be better served if accurate data were provided. Otherwise the stock price is left with greater vulnerability to futile speculation and reckless rumor. Uncertainty is FUD's middle name, and timely, accurate data would dispel a great deal of uncertainty. Should we as shareholders press for this? I'd be interested in hearing arguments pro and con.
     
  2. Jackl1956

    Jackl1956 Member

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    Q3 IMHO, will be a slight beat. I believe and have for some time that Elon is demonstrating consistent growth. Quarter after quarter Tesla sightly beats guidance. This pattern is well thought out. Demonstrating market control and well managed growth serves Tesla's long term goals (the electrification of transportation and a solar electric economy). Monthly sales numbers would appear erratic until higher volumes are achieved.
     
  3. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    I prefer that Tesla not publish too much detail which is irrelevant and unnecessary for long term investing.

    Granular data may increase the volatility rather than decrease it.

    It might be misplaced to ask Tesla team to change the way they do business, especially to follow other auto makers model, even if that relates to reporting only. As far as my investment is concerned, Tesla team may do as they see fit as long as they make and sell awesome cars.

    Investors are free to manage their investment based on available data and based on their evaluation of Tesla team performance, including transparency in reporting.

    Last but not the least, I have a lot of fun reading about speculation on irrelevant monthly delivery numbers, and I prefer my fun to last.
     
  4. bonaire

    bonaire Active Member

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    It would lower TSLA volatility and investment bankers and even options traders want high vol. it also would not allow the coy and semi-factual quasi tweeting and other things that help keep volatility up. I don't see any other reason not to report sales other than trying to be a new style of automaker who plays by its own rules. Oracle doesn't publish monthly license sales and consulting revenue. McDonalds doesn't publish how many billions served this month.
     
  5. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Ditto
     
  6. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    #6 jhm, Oct 28, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2014
    I get the idea that investors may not be able to interpret fluxations in granular data. However, I would prefer to discuss those complexities with access to credible data than without such data. The complexities already confuse many and give bears endless foder for FUD, but without accurate data it is much harder to elevate the conversation. Certainly the likes of Paul Santos will continue to push obtuse interpretations, but I would prefer to refute interpretations with accurate data than to waste time arguing about what the numbers are.

    Would anyone here argue that Ward's "data" on Tesla sales is better for investors than would be accurate data directly from Tesla? Why should Tesla prefer to allow Ward's to publish conjecture as data when they could easy supply authoritative numbers? This situatation seems to give Ward's free reign to define the "facts" for the investment community.
     
  7. TexasEV

    TexasEV Active Member

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    Who cares what "standard practice" in the auto industry is? It doesn't benefit anyone other than the auto journalists who then have something to write about. Standard practice in corporate America is to report quarterly, and even that is probably too often for a company focused on the long term.
     
  8. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    I think it makes sense to try to see if Tesla will discuss their rationale for not disclosing these numbers, I don't know at this point whether I want them to disclose the numbers or not.

    fwiw, I agree that the issue is the likelihood of seemingly erratic swings given the current low volumes, made more of of a concern by the fact the company is completely reliant on one product, and for the next 2-3 years, two products. Finally, I guess this would apply more to orders than deliveries, but if they also were in the practice of disclosing orders, just think of how the feedback of nonsense noise last fall would have further escalated if they'd disclosed orders for the months immediately following the three battery fires.
     
  9. Dwdnjck

    Dwdnjck Member

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    Tesla's monthly sales are uneven because of larger,or smaller,numbers of cars in transit. Tesla could manipulate monthly or quarterly sales by focusing deliveries on local or foreign markets. Since all cars produced are either sold or held back for demos and loaners, Tesla might consider releasing monthly production numbers instead of sales.
     
  10. hockeythug

    hockeythug Active Member

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    I'm fine with the the quarterly production and delivery numbers.
     
  11. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    I too am undecided on this and would like to hear Tesla's rationale.

    I do think that if it comes down to being concerned how people might interpret the results, then that is a position of weakness. It's essentially an admission than Tesla's results cannot stand to scrutiny. So, I would tend to see it as an expression of confidence if Tesla were to be more transparent. From what I hear, Tesla has nothing to be ashamed of. They've got a substantial back order and are busy trying to fill it. Even during the fires, I'm pretty sure they kept the factory humming a full speed with a sufficiently large queue of eager customers. I don't think we want to report orders, but actual sales should not be a problem. Basically you have the factory pumping out so many cars per week. Depending on where those cars get delivered and how many become service cars at stores and service centers, you've got flow into the market. Adjunct information such as the average time in transit to various markets can easily account for the ebb and flow of deliveries. I'm sure several people on TMC and elsewhere would quickly figure out how this all works and would be able to explain how weekly production is transformed into monthly deliveries. This data could become a really powerful tool for proponents of Tesla.

    Tesla has a good story and strong numbers to tell it. Tesla is not afraid to open its patents. Why should it be afraid to open its sales reports? If Tesla wants to spur competitors to make Tesla-grade electric vehicles, why not let those competitors keep score and see how Tesla is cracking open an attractive market? If Tesla wants to break free from the tyrany of trying to hit quarterly sales numbers, why not dispel the suspense by routine monthly, even daily or weekly reporting? That is, the time and attention analysts and investors place on trying to anticipate quarterly numbers might be better spent focussing on longer term strategic issues. If you already know results from the first two months of the quarter, the concern about the third month will not be so great. So analysts will do a better job of predicting quarterly earnings and attention will shift to more important questions. As a long-term investor I would rather not have to spend any time guessing at what next quarter's deliveries will be because that is not the most important thing that Tesla is doing. So openness and transparency have the potential to draw more attention to the things that matter most and lead the transformation of the auto industry. Tesla has a wonderful story to tell. Why not open source reporting?
     
  12. hockeythug

    hockeythug Active Member

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    "Sales" in Tesla's case, are deliveries which fluctuate due to a number of factors and would lead to even more FUD if announced every month.
     
  13. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Active Member

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    Should Tesla publish monthly sales number?

    No.

    And I'd bet money it won't be happening any time soon considering the last ER report, "We're going to keep our cards close to our chest."
     
  14. Reykjavik

    Reykjavik Member

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    No, I don't think they should. I think they should continue to focus on the cars. Tesla does not exist to please shareholders, Tesla exists to accelerate the switch to electric vehicles. The stocks will rise and fall, but as long as they keep doing the actual work of building and selling cars, things will be ok.
     
  15. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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    Agree. Tesla does not owe anything to anyone in respect to granular reporting and may report as they see fit. If some traders get frustrated with a lack of detail, they are free to go elsewhere where their investment needs are met in a more fitting way.

    My favourite aspects of Tesla company is that it is an underdog, beating very long odds and doing it 'Tesla way'. A lot of courage and 'craziness' there, but also a lot of congruence in the way they do business.

    If Tesla starts dancing to shareholder's tynes, I will be selling out.
     
  16. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    I believe they shouldn't publish montly sales numbers. They do release detailed production/sales/delivery numbers every three months in their quarterly reports including detailed future guidance. How could this not be enough?

    Since Tesla's way of operating is not to build cars which they sell to dealers (where they may or may not sell or sit and fill up a lot) but directly to customers the quarterly sales/delivery data actually is a lot more meaningful than any other automakers monthly or even weekly "sales" numbers (since these are not actual customer sales and hence to not correctly reflect demand in the market place).
     
  17. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I'm in the "no" column as well. We've already seen a few unseemly scrambles to deliver cars just before the quarter's end to hit guidance; I wouldn't want that to become a monthly habit. Outside of the auto industry, I can't think of any major sector that reports monthly. Just one more way that Tesla is bucking traditional auto practices.
     
  18. dalalsid

    dalalsid Member

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    If Tesla discloses anything monthly, it should be orders, not deliveries.
     
  19. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Also they disclose the ammount of dollars held in customer deposits every quarter, which gives s very good indication of incoming orders (well rather reservations).
     
  20. JRod0802

    JRod0802 Member

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    I came here to post the same thing. This is an excellent point. Scrambling to deliver cars just before the end of the quarter may help TSLA (the stock) in the short term, but it hurts Tesla (the company) in the long term. I wouldn't want to encourage more hurt to Tesla by making this happen every month.

    Reasons quarter-end scrambling hurts Tesla:
    1) Suddenly there aren't very many test drive cars at Tesla stores because they try to sell them all.
    2) Suddenly over-seas sales dry up because Tesla can deliver faster to North America.
     

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