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Should you wait for 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range with 4680 Battery or by Tesla now? [Jan 2023]
- Thread starter LK1989rr
- Start date
Buy now... assuming your price is less than 55k
www.cnbc.com
Why the $7,500 EV tax credit may be tougher to get starting in March
The IRS expects to issue guidance on the clean vehicle credit in March. Experts think the rules around car batteries will limit who can get the credit.
This is the same ole question when it comes to any tech. Should I buy now or wait has always been asked with any computer, HiFi, TV or cell phone purchase. One thing you are missing out by waiting is the joy of ownership. Tesla IMHO has never made a bad year model or type. Even the original roasters are still being sought after. Back to the 4680. I would think the unknown would be concerning. Moreover, why isn't the 4680 in more vehicles? Why is it taking Tesla so long to ramp up productivity? Maybe I'm over thinking the 4680 concerns but I don't think you will go wrong by making the purchase now.
Have fun and check in often. TMC has a lot to offer.
Have fun and check in often. TMC has a lot to offer.
In retrospect, there were some bad times to buy cars, but I don’t think now is one of them. The 4680 isn’t optimized and won’t be for a long time. I’d be more worried about getting HW3 right before HW4 comes out, but likely that won’t happen until the Cybertruck comes out.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
Anyone that actually owns a Tesla knows being first isn’t an advantage. It’s a big risk. The 2170 3/Y packs are well sorted at this point and have proven very reliable. No way I’d want one of the first 500k or so 4680 packs to come off the line.
howardnj
Member
Imagine that you were an automobile owner around 1910 and you were using a hand crank to start your car.
You would be upset when new cars began appearing with a starter motor.
.... and now there are no starter motors on electric vehicles. Although there is a push to start button on the Mach E.
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
In fact, the electrical starter was what killed... the Electric cars at that time,
Henry Ford's Wife Wouldn't Drive Ford Model T, Kept Her Electric Car
To many, electric cars are a completely new thing. However, they actually have a long history in the United States. For some time, they were the top dog. However, due to battery limitations many decades
cleantechnica.com
E90alex
Active Member
There is no indication it’s coming anytime soon. So your choice is to have a car to use and enjoy now or wait an indeterminate amount of months (or more likely years).
Tesla has not been able to scale 4680 production or increase the power density of the cells as much as they hoped (surprise surprise, another overpromise).
Tesla has not been able to scale 4680 production or increase the power density of the cells as much as they hoped (surprise surprise, another overpromise).
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
Would it be conceivable to see a 500 miles range Model 3 LR or Model S LR by the end of 2023?
If so, what structural battery size would be needed and possible to fit inside the body frame ?
E90alex
Active Member
No. Elon has said before about Lucid’s headlining range figures that it doesn’t make sense to chase 500+ miles range and it’s a waste of battery. Humans will need bio/rest breaks long before hitting 500 miles. There is no need for such range with improving charging infrastructure. As it stands, current battery capacity and Tesla Supercharger network is not that far off from parity with ICE road trip times.
But also there are no rumored or reported plans for a structural pack chassis for any other Tesla model any time soon. The current battery packs are basically full of cells and the only way to increase capacity is to increase energy density of each cell through improved chemistry. Or further improve efficiency through the motors and aero to go further with the same amount of battery.
Structural pack doesn’t necessarily mean better capacity either. It just simplifies overall manufacturing of the vehicle due to the gigacastings. Currently the structural pack of the 4680 Y AWD has less battery capacity than the non-structural 2170 Y LR because the 2170 cells have higher energy density than 4680.
boulder.dude
Member
500 miles of EPA range (I.e. ideal weather driving 60mph) feels just about right since that provides about 300 miles in many scenarios (winter, towing, charging 10% to 70% on road trips). Current MY range is barely enough. Mainstream adoption will need more!
Might as well wait for the Zeekr 001 to hit the states, with it's 641 miles of range. Point is - there is always something better on the horizon. That is the sweet thing about technology. With the tax credit and price drop, price pushed me past that type of hesitation.
exxxviii
Member
It is relatively simple math... The MYLR would just need a 123 kWh battery to get 500 mile range. So, either the battery would need to be 50% physically larger (and 550 lbs. heavier) than the current battery. Or they would need to increase the energy density by 50%. Neither seems likely in 11 months.
Watts_Up
Well-Known Member
But don't a 500 miles range Model S Plaid+ with 4680 Cells had been previously announced?
And the Model S/X wheelbase of 116" is very similar to the Model 3/Y wheelbase of 113".
So a Super Long Range LR+ could potentially be available.
I believe this super range battery was using the same location than the original battery:
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/JFSVVADVAJICJPHW75MH5SN5PE.jpg)
Startup ONE says battery prototype delivered 750-mile range
Our Next Energy (ONE), a two-year-old Michigan startup, said on Wednesday it had tested a prototype of its new battery in a Tesla Model S, driving 752 miles (1,210 kilometers) before recharging.
www.reuters.com
I have already ordered 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range but wondering if I should wait for new Tesla Model Y with Tesla Hardware 4.0. What do you guys think?
not happening
not until batteries are far more available. or 4680 is more plentiful and more energy dense.
also, the battery pack might need a refreshed design.
exxxviii
Member
It is conceptually possible, but unlikely in near-term. Currently available battery tech would add a great deal of volume and weight to the car. Adding weight would likely require adding more structural weight to support it. And then all the safety testing. It is more involved than just adding more kWh, if the car even has the space for it.
The alternative would be new battery tech that increases power density by 50%. I have not read about anything like that available in the near-term.
If Tesla had sights on a 500 mile Model Y Long Range+, I could see that in a next generation (where the structure was designed for it going in) and future battery tech has increased energy density.
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