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Should you wait for 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range with 4680 Battery or by Tesla now? [Jan 2023]

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If you want to nerd out over minutiae, Tesla will keep you up all night.
The sales volume of MY-AWD is low, less than the MYP despite qualifying for Tax Incentives.
It isn't much other than a test mule for the 4680. It's not a good alternative to the MYLR.
4680 batteries are no where near the projections of 'Battery Day', and all the 'experts' created by that event refuse to acknowledge reality.
The CT and SEMI were designed around that battery, but delayed in large measure because of it. I hope they're for real now.....but....
HW4 is another fantasy buildup. Most people will never utilize it since they won't be FSD buyers. HW3 is plenty and HW2 works fine. FACT.
The crutch called USS may be on other cars but that doesn't absolve the Driver from knowing his surroundings and driving accordingly.
It should be noted that many people think they're missing crosstraffic notification but don't even look at the cameras that SHOW CROSSTRAFFIC when backing up.
Assistance is one thing; demanding a crutch is another.
Waiting, especially for the TeslaVision replacement for USS, is useless since you'll get it free of charge when it comes and all cars are capable (HW4 doesn't matter here)

But speculation and wishful thinking is rife on TMC, so indulge to your heart's (ego's) desire.
 
Good thread. I'm in the same decision boat. We live a few hours from Portland so range matters more but so does charge speed. I assume Tesla isn't software-limiting the AWD Y's range during some trial period for the new batteries. Noise and charging speed and $3k would be a tough trade for 50 miles of range. I assume nothing has changed this year in regards to the AWD's construction and potential updates ?
 
Nope the first generation 4680 has slightly less energy density than the 2170.
I was waiting for that but when the bargains and the rebates came at the begging
of the year I couldn't hold it any longer. Personally I am feeling more FOMO about hardware 3 . I don't think you will see that extra long range Y till Fall 2024 , or hardware 4 till then either . The earliest for Hardware 4 in the Y would be Christmas I think . I am also concerned that the rebates may not be permanent if the Republicans get control again. So I am paranoid and grumpy .
There are many reviews on the Texas 4680 best technical reviews are at
Sandy Munro's site. They have a teardown review on the Texas Y.

The argument for Hardware 4 is there are more Camera's and they have a wider feild of veiw . I don't see how they are going to do self parking and summon without those. The return of distance via camera's has a hole in it no Front Cam. Plus having more computing power doesn't hurt either. So even the basic functions would be better with this upgrade.
 
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Nope the first generation 4680 has slightly less energy density than the 2170.
I was waiting for that but when the bargains and the rebates came at the begging
of the year I couldn't hold it any longer. Personally I am feeling more FOMO about hardware 3 . I don't think you will see that extra long range Y till Fall 2024 , or hardware 4 till then either . The earliest for Hardware 4 in the Y would be Christmas I think . I am also concerned that the rebates may not be permanent if the Republicans get control again. So I am paranoid and grumpy .
There are many reviews on the Texas 4680 best technical reviews are at
Sandy Munro's site. They have a teardown review on the Texas Y.

The argument for Hardware 4 is there are more Camera's and they have a wider feild of veiw . I don't see how they are going to do self parking and summon without those. The return of distance via camera's has a hole in it no Front Cam. Plus having more computing power doesn't hurt either. So even the basic functions would be better with this upgrade.
HW4 is already on MS and MX, so it's likely on MY by summer; fall worst case. It utilizes upgraded resolution cameras (but not more cameras) and adds back radar.
Summon and self-park work now with current cameras. It's about the software not the cameras.
But it doesn't matter if you're not going to be a $15K customer for FSD. HW4 buys little or nothing for AP or EAP or anything else except FSD.

Tesla is already in production on the 2nd generation 4680 but regardless of that, the MY-AWD probably isn't a value purchase compared to the MYLR.
There is zero evidence of the MY-AWD 4680 battery pack being software-limited and Munro's teardown explicitly showed it's kWh capacity.
There is zero evidence of improvements in charging speed with the 4680. Total speculation.

Rebates are a fixture regardless of political party; it's about the need now.
With demand as strong as it is, you can expect either Party to start paring things back, and it's happening in multiple States now as well.
 
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@tangible1 so for a non-FSD purchase today (delivery in summer) there's no reason to get the AWD model ? The 2nd gen (or 3rd gen whenever they appear) won't offer range improvements but instead are all about Tesla getting their lines up-to-speed ? I'm willing to take the risk of missing the next iteration of the Y. I'm definitely tired of the waiting game and getting sea-sick from the price changes.
 
There could be and will be improvements but it will be hard to predict when
and or if the directions will change due to other battery research. They where only
able to do half the dry process on the first generation. I waited for two years
but I didn't want to go through another round of California gas price hikes.
Actually the California electrcity prices are some of the highest in the nation to.
 
@tangible1 so for a non-FSD purchase today (delivery in summer) there's no reason to get the AWD model ? The 2nd gen (or 3rd gen whenever they appear) won't offer range improvements but instead are all about Tesla getting their lines up-to-speed ? I'm willing to take the risk of missing the next iteration of the Y. I'm definitely tired of the waiting game and getting sea-sick from the price changes.
FACT
Tesla makes changes on their own schedule, not bound by annual model updates. It's always on their need, ability, and supply chain.
It can be change for the better or....not. Depends on your POV.
Most changes going forward are more likely about saving manufacturing time and cost; less will be passed to the Buyer.
OPINION
Range improvements will be driven by competition and cost.
But since the competition can barely deliver a dribble of cars and have a demonstrated lack of resources (batteries), do not expect much range change from Tesla very soon.
The MY-AWD vs the MYLR vs the MYP is a personal decision. I personally do not think the AWD price point benefit is worth the loss of range compared to the MYLR.
The best benefit of the MY-AWD is the new chassis onstruction; a much more structurally sound car.
But it was supposed to weigh a lot less than it does, and the range....no. The batteryt pack is demonstrably not software-limited, either. Just ask Sandy Munro.
Once 4680 becomes more available we'll see, but for the foreseeable future the CT and SEMI are going to consume available 4680, so the MY is going to take a back seat.
SUMMARY
The MY models that Tesla is delivering TODAY are sound, solid, and well priced.
Tax Incentives and Clean Vehicle payments and Utility subsidies aren't going to last forever. TAKE THEM WHILE THE GETTING IT GOOD.

YMMV
 
Just one persons render of the new MY, based on the leaked M3 Highland pics. New vs current. Not claiming it’s anything we can bank on.
 

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Who has tried summon and self park with the vision only system can
someone give a report?
My car had USS, but think its been disabled, running on Vision. The summons use to work terrific a yr ago,tbe feature decreased functionality, but the last update improved it, it works good, but I dont trust it as much as I did a yr ago. The autopark fx works intermittently, the car has to be in right angle/position, both features will improve in time.