Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers

[bdy0627]

As far as I can tell, this guy on Twitter has a Tesla employee source providing daily production numbers. He provides these daily numbers for the TSLA shorts. Given the intense focus on the production ramp, I thought it would be helpful to have a thread for tracking these numbers. If you believe he is a poor source for these numbers, I can understand that, and you can ignore this thread.

Model 3 Production
6/24 547
6/25 623
6/26 698
6/27 811
6/28 856
6/29 701
6/30 734
7/1 370
7/2 18
7/3 5
7/4 5
7/5 150
7/6 465
7/7 380
7/8 260
7/9 550
7/10 610
7/11 700
7/12 800
7/13 700
7/14 770
7/15 680
7/16 530
7/17 400
7/18 540
7/19 570
7/20 560
7/21 680

 

[bdy0627]

July Model 3 Daily Average: 464

 

[bdy0627]

Daily Average Starting from JULY 5: 550 (to eliminate the July 4th holiday period)

 

[bdy0627]

Daily Average Starting from JULY 15 (last 7 days): 566

 

[schonelucht]

Today he posted numbers for July 22nd as being 340/50/100 (3/S/X). Also reporting a serious incident in the factory that shut down production today, possibly fire. However, I can't find any independent confirmation. I really don't know what to think about their information. On the one hand, it'd be great to have an accurate inside source, on the other hand there is no way to know if that source is actually real at all, nor is there is much reason to trust skabooshka themselve beyond the trust you'd place in any other anonymous Twitter user (read: not much).

 

[neroden]

Well, I've been expecting sabotage, and "incidents which shut down production" are a pretty normal thing.

 

[schonelucht]

Well, I've been expecting sabotage, and "incidents which shut down production" are a pretty normal thing.

So does Tesla.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

As far as I can tell, this guy on Twitter has a Tesla employee source providing daily production numbers. He provides these daily numbers for the TSLA shorts. Given the intense focus on the production ramp, I thought it would be helpful to have a thread for tracking these numbers. If you believe he is a poor source for these numbers, I can understand that, and you can ignore this thread.

Model 3 Production
6/24 547
6/25 623
6/26 698
6/27 811
6/28 856
6/29 701
6/30 734
7/1 370
7/2 18
7/3 5
7/4 5
7/5 150
7/6 465
7/7 380
7/8 260
7/9 550
7/10 610
7/11 700
7/12 800
7/13 700
7/14 770
7/15 680
7/16 530
7/17 400
7/18 540
7/19 570
7/20 560
7/21 680

The one good thing these numbers show me is that 5000/week was sustainable. From July 11-15, they averaged over 5100/week.

The problem, of course, is that it hasn’t been sustained. I don’t know what happened on the 15th— I assume that was the switchover to dual motor production— but the daily average dropped by about 200/day. The 21st looked promising, but production appears to have dropped sharply again on the 22nd & 23rd.

All the FUD about demand & logistics & supply chain is nonsense. Production is what matters. So far, in July, it’s a mixed bag.

 

[bdy0627]

The one good thing these numbers show me is that 5000/week was sustainable. From July 11-15, they averaged over 5100/week.

The problem, of course, is that it hasn’t been sustained. I don’t know what happened on the 15th— I assume that was the switchover to dual motor production— but the daily average dropped by about 200/day. The 21st looked promising, but production appears to have dropped sharply again on the 22nd & 23rd.

All the FUD about demand & logistics & supply chain is nonsense. Production is what matters. So far, in July, it’s a mixed bag.

Yeah, it's been up and down, nearing the target of 700/day on 6 days in July with that nice 5 day stretch in the middle. Maybe some slowdowns for the new configurations - performance and AWD, but not sure. According to Skabooshka, there was rumor of factory shutdown due to a serious problem on 7/22 when production dropped dramatically. Glad to see it jumped up significantly yesterday.

I would think that Elon wants some good numbers going into Q1 ER.

 

[ZachShahan]

Yeah, it's been up and down, nearing the target of 700/day on 6 days in July with that nice 5 day stretch in the middle. Maybe some slowdowns for the new configurations - performance and AWD, but not sure. According to Skabooshka, there was rumor of factory shutdown due to a serious problem on 7/22 when production dropped dramatically. Glad to see it jumped up significantly yesterday.

I would think that Elon wants some good numbers going into Q1 ER.

Seems it wasn't a rumor. He was just guessing about the reason. Apparently, "fire" is one of the first explanations that came to his mind.

skabooshka on Twitter

 

[ZachShahan]

Yeah, it's been up and down, nearing the target of 700/day on 6 days in July with that nice 5 day stretch in the middle. Maybe some slowdowns for the new configurations - performance and AWD, but not sure. According to Skabooshka, there was rumor of factory shutdown due to a serious problem on 7/22 when production dropped dramatically. Glad to see it jumped up significantly yesterday.

I would think that Elon wants some good numbers going into Q1 ER.

Seems it wasn't a rumor. He was just guessing about the reason. Apparently, "fire" is one of the first explanations that came to his mind.

skabooshka on Twitter

 

[Papafox]

 

[Garlands]

Daily production update.
On July 24, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 640
Model S: 140
Model X: 150

 

[bdy0627]

Daily production update.
On July 24, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 640
Model S: 140
Model X: 150

These are good numbers again. Nice to see, and especially nice to see going into the Q2 ER. Elon needs the firepower right now.

 

[bdy0627]

Tesla has averaged 540 model 3 per day since July 5th, yielding a weekly rate of 3,782. I'd like to see them be able to bring that average up above 580 over the next week, so that the weekly average is over 4,000 per week since the July 4th Holiday. If Elon could state that and that the average over the last 7 days is over 5,000 per week would be great news. A statement that they are on track to be at 6,000/week by the end of August would be nice too.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Okay, so through the first 24 days of July:

11,203 M3 produced, a rate that works out to 42.5k produced in the quarter.

Factoring out the first 5 days (548 total in that time), we get:

10,655 produced, a rate of 51k per quarter.

I think these numbers are fine so far, but we need them to continue rising.

 

[ZachShahan]

These are good numbers again. Nice to see, and especially nice to see going into the Q2 ER. Elon needs the firepower right now.

Perhaps a result of whatever the slowdown a few days earlier was related to. You can see output dropped slowly and then rose slowly.

 

[Todd Burch]

I think they slowed down or stopped the line to:

1. Make tweaks for AWD/P production.
2. Adjust for white interior (possibly).
3. Clear some bottlenecks so they can work toward 6k/week.

If they push hard I think they may be able to hold 5,500/wk rate for the rest of the month, which would look real good going into the ER (especially if high AWD/P mix).

 

[ZachShahan]

I think they slowed down or stopped the line to:

1. Make tweaks for AWD/P production.
2. Adjust for white interior (possibly).
3. Clear some bottlenecks so they can work toward 6k/week.

If they push hard I think they may be able to hold 5,500/wk rate for the rest of the month, which would look real good going into the ER (especially if high AWD/P mix).

Agreed.

... or it could have been a fire

 

[bdy0627]

Given that they have opened up for U.S. orders, Tesla should have good transparency into the expected performance and AWD sales mix for Q3 and even Q4. That will be helpful for the Q2 ER. I'm hopeful they actually raise their profit guidance for Q3 and Q4, if even slightly.