That´s Skabooshka´s own take of how his numbers might fit the "hitting 5000 multiple times":
skabooshka on Twitter
Not saying it is definitely true but not unrealistic either.
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Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers
- Thread starter bdy0627
- Start date
That´s Skabooshka´s own take of how his numbers might fit the "hitting 5000 multiple times":
skabooshka on Twitter
Not saying it is definitely true but not unrealistic either.
Well, he is still going. I made the mistake of reading some of the things he retweeted. In light of the recent price it just seems pathetic. Anyway, the latest production numbers look pretty good to me.
On August 1, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 700
Model S: 190
Model X: 165
On August 1, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 700
Model S: 190
Model X: 165
jhm
Well-Known Member
Did you see the thing on Altman's z-score? It's very sensitive to stock price. There is a term for the ratio of market cap equity to book value of liabilities. That term jumped yesterday sending the z-score from 1.16 to 1.61. So Tesla is pulling out of a period of stressed finances. Free cash flow and earning will also push the z-score back up to safe levels.
To be fair to the credit methodology Tesla was taking a risky move to bring the Model 3 to market. It was a bet the company moment as Musk would describe it. But we are clearly on the way out of this. You can see how the shorts were exploiting this financial stress, but the play is over. As credit improves for Tesla, the shorts lose the crisis that was propping them up. Institutional investors can step back in, and shorts will get crushed.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Seven-days ending 8/1/2018
Model 3 4755, + 805 w/w
Model S 1045, + 185 w/w
Model X 995, - 65 w/w
Total 6795, + 925 w/w
This is pretty cool. In 7 days the weekly run rate has climbed 925. We are quite close to 7000.
I'd love to see Tesla try to burst to 8000 total, 6000 Model 3 soon. They've got several chances to get this this month. According to this data, they've been able to hit one day maximums of 5992/wk Model 3, and 8120/wk. So they can do a one day burst, but can they sustain that for 7 days?
Model 3 4755, + 805 w/w
Model S 1045, + 185 w/w
Model X 995, - 65 w/w
Total 6795, + 925 w/w
This is pretty cool. In 7 days the weekly run rate has climbed 925. We are quite close to 7000.
I'd love to see Tesla try to burst to 8000 total, 6000 Model 3 soon. They've got several chances to get this this month. According to this data, they've been able to hit one day maximums of 5992/wk Model 3, and 8120/wk. So they can do a one day burst, but can they sustain that for 7 days?
Skabooshka's twitter account is such irony. He's an emphatic bear yet the production numbers he tweets are so bullish.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yuri_G
Member
I get the sense that a lot of the shorts feel threatened by Elon's intelligence and success. They can't accept that Musk is a one of a kind entrepreneur and gifted at what he does, so he must be a fraud and they'll uncover how he's duping everyone because they are that much smarter than he is. Guess some people have to learn the hard way...
Model 3 production for the last 10 days is looking really good with only 1 day of sub 600 and 3 days under 660. This is by far the longest stretch of sustaining 600+ numbers.
7/24 640
7/25 680
7/26 780
7/27 690
7/28 540
7/29 620
7/30 665
7/31 760
8/1 700
8/2 700
7/24 640
7/25 680
7/26 780
7/27 690
7/28 540
7/29 620
7/30 665
7/31 760
8/1 700
8/2 700
He can't. He's got a really strong pair of shortsville glasses and views everything through them. It's the same data but he's not seeing what we see.
jhm
Well-Known Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
We need to see them hit 900+ a few times. 6000/week is 857/day average. So they can't really do 6000 in 7 consecutive days with having a max one-day capacity over 900.
What's funny about how bears and bulls can view this same data differently is that bulls want to see surges in daily and weekly output because it show an expansion of capacity. However, bears will fixate on the lulls between surges because it suggests to them basic incompetency. They will attack on grounds that Tesla can't sustain x for a long period of time. This is like watching a race team practice launching 0-60 in 2.7s repeatedly and then say "sure, but can they sustain 60 mph for 300 miles?" Those are two different objectives, both worthwhile, but you don't test and improve them simultaneously. Tesla is trying to find the shortest path to 10k/week. Their daily peak needs to get up to 1750 or so before they can hit 10,000 in a single 7-day stretch, and they need to hit 11,000 in week before they can reach 125k in a quarter. So they are looking for both the shortest path in time and the shortest path in capex to get to 125k per quarter. The capex requirement is largely driven by peak one-day production, not so much by the average weekly production. They simply do not have enough production assets in place to hit 1750 in a single day. What they are trying to figure out is the lightes capex mix that enables this peak capacity. Figuring out that a straight production line in the tent gives the more peak throughput at lower capital cost is a huge advance. They might never have figured this out had they not be racing to see if they could get to 5000 in a single 7-day stretch. Now they have much better visibility into a lower capex path. These surge days and surge weeks indicate critical learning along the experience curve. The low production days can simply be opportunities to tweak the system and roll out more capacity, which serve to make new peaks possible. They are not just building cars, they are engineering the machine that makes the cars.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
AH but if they switched to short range they would have batteries for 50% more.
IE batteries in two LR = batteries in 3 SR.
This may be why Elon said that the SR would appear after 5000 a week was sustained for a few months.
Was it 3 or 6 months ?
But does Tesla make more money from 2 LR (possibly AWD P)cars or 3 SR (possibly base)?
Profit is more important than quantity.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Based on the 28 days ending on Aug 4, 2018, here are daily averages.
What becomes clear here is that there is a weekly pattern of production. Sunday is the lowest day of the week. It then ramps up to Thursday peak and tappers off Friday and Saturday.
Notice that they are consistently hitting targets on Thursday. Here are the last 4 Thursdays.
Code:
Day M3 MS MX Total
Sun 475 88 128 690
Mon 556 111 115 783
Tue 603 135 135 873
Wed 655 178 171 1,004
Thu 713 175 188 1,075
Fri 640 151 160 951
Sat 635 138 155 928
Total 611 139 150 900What becomes clear here is that there is a weekly pattern of production. Sunday is the lowest day of the week. It then ramps up to Thursday peak and tappers off Friday and Saturday.
Notice that they are consistently hitting targets on Thursday. Here are the last 4 Thursdays.
Code:
Date M3 MS MX Total
7/12/2018 800 170 190 1,160
7/19/2018 570 180 210 960
7/26/2018 780 170 150 1,100
8/2/2018 700 180 200 1,080
Total 713 175 188 1,075There was a trough in July could be explained by bring in the P3 online that slowing the production. But what is the reason for August slow down? Does that mean there is uncertainty even after they did the same thing before and it is not fool proof to just repeat the previous process? Or they are trying something new we are not aware of? Or skabooshka's is fabricating the number from Aug 2 on?
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