They are counting on 500 cars delivered to Europe and not realized in Q2. They cannot discount that since that is part of the guidance and they have no prove to the contrary.
We don't really have prove either, but if there is one thing that Tesla can be relied on, it is to be late at delivering something
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Really fine contribution Sleepyhead! Thanks for writing it in English and not in Street-ese. :wink:
I think it is fairly clear that Tesla realized their mistake in trying to put all those EU cars on the boat at the end of the Q, and actively changed their mind, with the intent to boost financials in the first ER after the capital raise.
It could be argued that they should have pre-announced the impact of this, but they did not. Mid-quarter guidance revisions are so rare that I think they will easily get away with it. But clearly this is the thing that completely changes the picture, even for the bullish analysts. I think some of them raised their price targets with this in mind (DB and Dougherty), but did not adjust their estimates.
What will further drive the surprise is that a lot of the "junk press" of the Street is still reporting that analysts CUT their Q2 and full year estimates in the past month.
In the end, I trust the quality of info on TMC
far more than anything in the financial press. We are not just zealots (though most of us are, to be fair), but we are just much closer to the car, the factory, the user and prospective user communities, etc. On that basis, I think the probability of a repeat of last quarter's blow out is more likely than not.
Definitely night before the big game feeling here...
