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sleepyhead's Q2 Earnings Preview

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Yes and it only offers to listen via Windows Media or Adobe Flash, neither of which I can use from my iPad or iPhone unfortunately.
(there is a windows media app I downloaded on my iphone but i can't seem to even register from my iPhone, seems the mobile IR site doesn't allow that)

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For earlier calls it has been:
Live Call: (877) 312-5519 / (760) 666-3771 (International)
But not sure if it will be the same for this call?

Thanks Johan, will try that later
 
When it is Blurry_Eyed responding to Sleepyhead I either feel like I'm on the "Can't Sleep" thread or I'm going to nod off at my desk.

Sleepyhead - thanks for the information. My model has 5300/$523m/.31 non-GAAP/.09 GAAP/.24c GM (including ZEV)....mine are lower based on conservative (and probably wrong) lease. I hope you are right and there are some additional guidance for 2013/2014/surprises (Partnerships, anyone - GM, Google, Diamler, Intellectual Property etc.)

Yawn....

Haha... that is a funny one. How did you guys come up with name like this?
 
"Vehicles Delivered – 5,200. Evidence points to 5,450 vehicles produced, so if you subtract loaners then 5,200 seems like a reasonable number."
At Teslive the consensus seemed to be that they were not holding onto the loaners and selling most of them. It could be to just make sure that they make a profit in Q2, who knows. I think that 250 loaners seems like a generous number.
 
sleepyhead, thanks for putting in the effort for the analysis!

I haven't seen anyone asked on the ZEV credit. I see the on sheet you have ~ $68m,same as Q1. I thought there will be less ZEV credit in Q2, right?

If your estimate of ZEV credit is true, then it is short's deja-vu again: Look, Tesla make profit because they have the ZEV credit!


 
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sleepyhead, thanks for putting in the effort for the analysis!

I haven't seen anyone asked on the ZEV credit. I see the on sheet you have ~ $68m,same as Q1. I thought there will be less ZEV credit in Q2, right?

If your estimate of ZEV credit is true, then it is short's deja-vu again: Look, Tesla make profit because they have the ZEV credit!


Kevin - It is actually $62m vs. $68m. I figured that Elon said it would be lower this Q due to lower car sales 4500 vs. 4900, and lower selling price.

If I applied 4500 vehicles delivered then my ZEV calculation works out to $54m vs. $68. Since they delivered a lot more than guided, that raises the ZEV number to $62m. I basically used $12k of ZEV income per car delivered vs. $13.8k in Q1.

There is a real risk that this number is overstated.

Once again, I am hoping that my gross margin number is conservative and may possibly offset any decline in modeled ZEV income.
 
sleepyhead well done! I took a look at your model this afternoon and was excited because it was close to my estimates! Extremely far from anything seen on the street, and very accurate. The so-called "comparables" are nothing like Tesla, and the auto industry ER analysts are having a hard time modeling that out. That's why I love this company. Long from $34.