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Slowdown in Supercharger roll out?

Fiver

Active Member
Apr 10, 2015
1,853
1,544
Utah
While not scientific in any way, a quick perusal of Supercharge.info over the last 2 months or so shows a large amount of new supercharger openings, but very few new permits issued. The company stated in the last earnings call that they are almost opening a new SC location every day at this point, but looking forward I don't see the permits to continue this trend.
Again, Supercharge.info, while pretty up to date clearly doesn't have every permit listed (Especially in Europe).

Also when do you think Tesla will update the Supercharger map on their site to indicate beyond 2016? The difference in the "today" to "end of 2015" map indicates a pretty big expansion still remaining this year, but we aren't seeing the permits to back it up really.
Thoughts?
 

hockeythug

Active Member
Jun 3, 2013
1,979
879
Minnesota
I'm sure they are going up as fast as the local governments allows. As a government employee myself, some things move painfully slow.
 

LMB

Member
Mar 9, 2013
192
3
South Shore Boston
(LMB spouse)

Edit: sorry, ignore the following, I misread the OP's post. Do note that the permits reported on supercharge.info have to be discovered by independent research, so maybe there's less of this happening now that most states have Supercharger stations.

Actually, the rate picked up about two months ago. Here's the charts page:

supercharge.info


 
Last edited:

Fiver

Active Member
Apr 10, 2015
1,853
1,544
Utah
(LMB spouse)

Edit: sorry, ignore this, I misread the OP's post.

Actually, the rate picked up about two months ago. Here's the charts page:

supercharge.info


Thats my point. The rate of opening's accelerated, but the rate of new permits (which lead to construction, then openings) has dropped off dramatically. When the 12 or so under construction at the moment wrap up (Some are nearly done too), there are only 6 new permits in the last 2 months to replace them. Only 4 permits in the last month. Look at the number of permits released prior to late June, nearly 40 permits issued in the 4 months from March to July..
 

LMB

Member
Mar 9, 2013
192
3
South Shore Boston
(LMB spouse)

The part you quoted was the part I intended to be ignored. The relevant part was

"Do note that the permits reported on supercharge.info have to be discovered by independent research, so maybe there's less of this happening now that most states have Supercharger stations."

By "this", I meant independent research.
 

Fiver

Active Member
Apr 10, 2015
1,853
1,544
Utah
(LMB spouse)

The part you quoted was the part I intended to be ignored. The relevant part was

"Do note that the permits reported on supercharge.info have to be discovered by independent research, so maybe there's less of this happening now that most states have Supercharger stations."

By "this", I meant independent research.

Ah, I see. Still, I wonder once the key links in the US are opened, if the rate of expansion is slowing down. Key links being ABQ, Amarillo TX, Columbia MO, Gillette (Or Casper?) WY, Twin Falls ID, and perhaps Denton TX. After those it's only big gaps left.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,127
23,634
Thats my point. The rate of opening's accelerated, but the rate of new permits (which lead to construction, then openings) has dropped off dramatically. When the 12 or so under construction at the moment wrap up (Some are nearly done too), there are only 6 new permits in the last 2 months to replace them. Only 4 permits in the last month. Look at the number of permits released prior to late June, nearly 40 permits issued in the 4 months from March to July..
If you look at past North America opening history you'll find an easy explanation. New openings are disproportionately in the summer months, while new permits tend to be concentrated a few months earlier. Several geographies do not have that pattern, but the more winter weather is a factor the more tesla concentrates construction work in those areas into the late Spring and Summer...or so it seems to me from looking at the patterns since 2013. I admit I have not studied the matter with enough care to be positive.
 

Fiver

Active Member
Apr 10, 2015
1,853
1,544
Utah
If you look at past North America opening history you'll find an easy explanation. New openings are disproportionately in the summer months, while new permits tend to be concentrated a few months earlier. Several geographies do not have that pattern, but the more winter weather is a factor the more tesla concentrates construction work in those areas into the late Spring and Summer...or so it seems to me from looking at the patterns since 2013. I admit I have not studied the matter with enough care to be positive.

I agree that makes sense. I guess it means a pretty big chunk of the "End of 2015" chargers are going to be pushed into 2016 instead. I shouldn't be surprised that Tesla is missing self imposed deadlines I guess.
So yes, the supercharger roll out is slowing down for the remainder of 2015.
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,327
7,404
Maine
Since 7/1/2014 , 120 Superchargers have gone live in the USA and Canada. Of these, Supercharge.info first recorded
65 at the permit stage
50 under construction
5 when opened

It's not like people always find the location ahead of time.
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,327
7,404
Maine
If you look at past North America opening history you'll find an easy explanation. New openings are disproportionately in the summer months, while new permits tend to be concentrated a few months earlier. Several geographies do not have that pattern, but the more winter weather is a factor the more tesla concentrates construction work in those areas into the late Spring and Summer...or so it seems to me from looking at the patterns since 2013. I admit I have not studied the matter with enough care to be positive.

Actually, studying the information from Supercharge.info, for North American Superchargers opened since 6/30/2014 the busiest months for openings were November to March.

This year, only 2 new locations were identified in July. 8 were identified last year. But that doesn't _necessarily_ mean that it's slowing. In some cases obvious build-out helped identify spots, some locations have online permit databases, or people have to go to the trouble of calling,

Incidentally the top month for identifying locations was September, when 11 locations were added.
 

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