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SLS and Orion Development

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No doubt NASA has that concern, but that should have nothing to do with the range decision on extending the battery life waiver.
It does, because replacing the battery requires the rocket to be back in the VAB. That is exactly why they have repeatedly asked for the extension. It's one of the perils of designing with the assumption that you'll never have to maintain it, because it'll be either at the bottom of the ocean or in a museum somewhere. Like the Starliner valves.
 
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It does, because replacing the battery requires the rocket to be back in the VAB.
Yes I understand that, my point is that the decision by the range on the battery life waiver should be based on the reliability and technical characteristics of the battery, not on the fact that NSA will have to roll the SLS back to the VAB to service the battery.
 
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Sure.

At the same time I think it may be good to reconsider categorizing folks comments here as "extremely unreasonable" for even suggesting risk... that's a pretty low bar for being reasonable.

Thanks for that, I was about to go dig up some of the same references.

To expand a bit on the Challenger explosion, there was definitely "normalization of risk". The design of the junctions of the pieces that made up the Solid Rocket Boosters was such that the O-rings were not supposed to ever see hot gas. And yet when recovered, they found erosion on a number of returned SRBs. But nothing ever went wrong, so they never put much effort into figuring out why, until it was too late.

Indeed. The documentary mini-series on NetFlix a couple of years ago about this was pretty interesting.

So, someone, some time, decided that the FTS batteries were good for 25 days. That limit has now been extended twice. Someone, some time, decided that 4% Hydrogen was safe but more wasn't. (This article points out that 4% in atmosphere is the lower limit for combustibility of Hydrogen.) But did they stop fueling when that limit was exceeded? On multiple occasions?

But I think there's another consideration going on here. (Or maybe it's just a different way of looking at the pressure to launch.) The mission has been stacked now for nearly or over a year. That's a hella long time by historical standards; who knows what connectors might have started to corrode or shaken loose? And rolling it to and from the VAB is itself a somewhat risky operation. I think they have a fear that if it rolls back it might never be in condition to fly again.

Interesting thought... the sheer time the thing has ben around may have taken it's toll.

The "witness mark" they found on the QD seals was thought to be an issue..., not sure it was ever determined what cause of that likely was?
 
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Definitely not NASA (or space wings). My brain would quickly receive an icepick as a result of their conservatism and glacial pace.

But yes, I've been designing/building/testing/managing/acquiring commercial satellites for 20+ years. Participation here is a bit tough since I can only say like 10% of the things I want to say. 😛

Somewhat in context to the above convo, back when I used to do real work I've banged my head more than I care to admit on the range safety compliance matrix. This is the set of safety items that everyone must comply to (launchers, satellites, contractors, etc.), and if that doesn't actually look like a matrix to you, well spotted. Also, if you can't find any concise instructions on how to actually engineer your way through the compliance evaluation process, you're still batting 1000. As it turns out our very efficient range safety analysis process has each user translate the articles within that document into a DIY excel file (or at least, that's what I've always seen) and then add some columns in which they confirm compliance and/or justify deviation from the very obvious intent of each article.

Of course, somehow, magically, a range safety officer that's been reviewing these for decades [in dark corners of old buildings] goes through each item and will grill you on your compliances and deviation justifications and will actually nail it all. Many many months later (and I can imagine for something like SLS, years later), approval to operate is granted.
I wish I could buy you a beverage of your choice and hear the other 90%... ;)

That is an interesting... and long doc. Will peruse a bit more... thanks for posting,

And again, despite my (too?) stringently making my case on this, I do appreciate the participation of you, and the folks here. I've learned a lot...
 
Eric Berger’s latest report on the status of the SLS

NASA has also reached an accord with US Space Force officials to extend the battery life for the rocket's onboard flight termination system. This left only weather as a potential constraint to a planned launch attempt for Tuesday, September 27, at 11:37 am EST (15:37 UTC). The problem is that weather now poses a significant threat to the schedule due to a tropical depression that will likely track toward Florida in the coming days. There is an 80 percent chance of unacceptable weather during the launch window.

Based on NASA's risk analyses, Blevins said he believed that the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft could withstand winds up to 74.1 knots (85 mph) at a level of 60 feet off the ground. The primary risk is wind loads on the vehicle, but he acknowledged there would be concerns about "things that might be moving around in a storm like that." This is a somewhat curious risk posture from a space agency that is obsessively concerned about "foreign object debris" with its space hardware.

I recommend reading the entire article. Berger is incredulous at the casual attitude towards the weather risk displayed by NASA administrators.

NASA really, really does not want to have to roll the SLS back to the VAB. That is understandable, but they seem to be willing expose the vehicle to high winds to avoid that scenario.
 
Quoting from Eric Berger's "send it" article, "NASA has also reached an accord with US Space Force officials to extend the battery life for the rocket's onboard flight termination system."

Both SLS and the first Model S have vintage 2012 components. Zero miles on the rocket, but tens of millions on those relatively maintenance free vehicles. Okay, so along the way there's been a few 12Volt battery replacements....No worries, there's probably only a tiny chance the STS FTS batteries come from the same vendor. 😳
 
Eric Berger’s latest report on the status of the SLS



I recommend reading the entire article. Berger is incredulous at the casual attitude towards the weather risk displayed by NASA administrators.

NASA really, really does not want to have to roll the SLS back to the VAB. That is understandable, but they seem to be willing expose the vehicle to high winds to avoid that scenario.
Wow. Some of what the agency is doing seems rather bizarre.

Not to flog the deceased equine, but man they seem to be awfully eager to launch despite what appears to be significant risk.
 
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So that stack can withstand 75MPH winds they estimate?

Ummm... not much margin for error...

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NASA to roll moon rocket back to hangar, as Hurricane Ian targets Florida


NASA said Monday it would roll the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft back to its assembly building at the Kennedy Space Center, as Hurricane Ian continued to intensify and threaten Florida.
The decision means that NASA’s Artemis I mission, the first in a series of steps to return astronauts to the moon, will be delayed again — this time for at least several weeks.
At least they can service the FTS batteries.
 
Eric Berger: NASA makes the call to protect its Artemis I mission from Hurricane Ian

Now that the rocket is returning to the VAB, NASA will need to perform servicing, likely including the delicate work of swapping out batteries for the rocket's flight termination system. NASA has not officially said so, but the rollback all but precludes a launch attempt in October, meaning that the next launch opportunity for the Artemis I mission may not come before November 12.
We all know that there is not a “race” between SLS and Starship to see how launches first. They are completely independent programs that are each subject to their own unique set of variables and constraints.

Nevertheless, I very much want to see Starship reach orbit first, to send a message to Congress and NASA administration that Starship is the future of space exploration and at an affordable price.
 
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At least they can service the FTS batteries.
And perhaps that is not the only thing that will require service, according to this article in Wired:
the Artemis 1 mission will deploy 10 small, secondary CubeSat missions. Those tiny satellites are already inside the rocket, and some of them cannot have their batteries recharged without removing them. Some may now be at about half power, and if their energy has waned too much by the time they are deployed, those CubeSats will be unable to complete their missions.
Also, there are scheduling conflicts in October that could potentially interfere with the next launch attempt:
The NASA team must also work around other launch plans at the Kennedy complex, including the SpaceX Crew-5 launch from a neighboring pad on October 3 of US, Japanese, and Russian astronauts to the International Space Station.
 
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We all know that there is not a “race” between SLS and Starship to see how launches first.
Both projects are run by humans who are fully aware their existential competitor is neck-and-neck for who launches first.
Both are first-time test flights. For one to fail (catastrophic) where the other succeeds will influence future big money.
Yes it's not a formally recognized race.
It's the elephant in the room.
 
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Both projects are run by humans who are fully aware their existential competitor is neck-and-neck for who launches first.
Both are first-time test flights. For one to fail (catastrophic) where the other succeeds will influence future big money.
Yes it's not a formally recognized race.
It's the elephant in the room.
.. but Starship has the leverage to fail multiple times as long as they keep making progress. Musk has said repeatedly, the first launch could end very well up in a kaboom, but hoping not on the launch pad.

SLS though has got ONE shot to succeed wildly with no failure at any part of its mission.
 
Both are first-time test flights. For one to fail (catastrophic) where the other succeeds will influence future big money.
The big difference is this SLS/Orion test flight is the precursor to a crewed mission. SH/Starship isn't close to being human rated. If necessary SpaceX would be allowed several RUDs before there'd be any genuine concern. In his own brilliant way, Elon would even celebrate such events....chalking them up to the price paid for rapid rocket iteration.
 
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Understood, the competition is existential for SLS.
Even if Artemis 1 fails for some reason, and Starship’s first orbital test were too succeed (with Starship remaining intact enough to do a soft ocean landing) that won’t kill the SLS program any time soon. It will take years. Artemis 2 would go ahead (without crew).
The big difference is this SLS/Orion test flight is the precursor to a crewed mission. SH/Starship isn't close to being human rated.
Interesting how a single successful SLS/Orion flight will result in a human rating by NASA. That seems like pretty minimal real-world testing of the full system.
 
Engineering reviews and simulations count for a lot.

Orion escape system was certified but extensive simulation & review.
Dragon escape system was certified by launching & detonating a Falcon 9.

Bureaucrats are satisfied by sufficient paperwork.
Elon presumably jumped at the chance to blow up a million pounds of fuel in flight.