TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
  1. TMC is currently READ ONLY.
    Click here for more info.

SLS - On the Scent of Inevitable Capitulation

Discussion in 'SpaceX' started by Nikxice, Nov 18, 2018.

  1. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
    Messages:
    5,061
    We should also recognize that other companies, notably Blue Origin, are showing promise. Although Blue Origin does have a very slow and methodical process compared with SpaceX (I accept plaudits for understatement) they have been more successful than other non-SpaceX entities. NASA almost certainly will not be prepared to continue single source. SLS should have a mercy killing now and probably Boeing should be eliminated from any future NASA contracts. Despite all the enormous political clout of Boeing the total waste to $18,65 Billion on development alone with forecast single launch cost fo another $2 billion this is unconscionable.

    SpaceX and Blue Origin are the only two even plausible options at this point, and only SpaceX has demonstrated orbital success. >100 successful launches with BFR a present reality do suggest that the reality is plausible.

    Now it remains to be seen what will happen with a new administration.
    At the minimum they'll be loving the Starlink services and Crew Dragon, both of which cost far too little for value received thus inhibiting solid positive congressional response.:eek::rolleyes:
     
    • Like x 9
  2. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    5,661
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    All very lovely, but sadly it is Congress that holds the purse strings and those Congresspeople involved in those purse strings will continue to want the money flowing into their districts and states regardless of Party affiliation and administrations. Until there is a 100% viable alternative launching that shames the politicians into dropping their albatross, it isn't going to change. The best we can hope for is continued roundabout support of SpaceX and alternatives. It will take SpaceX successfully launching a number of Starships and Super Heavies to get action. I don't think a New Glenn would be able to kill SLS. It has to be proven to be bigger and better to kill the boondoggle.

    JMHO.
     
    • Like x 8
    • Informative x 2
  3. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    5,661
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    • Informative x 3
  4. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    8,229
    Location:
    San Diego
    Really long production process that you get component mortality just waiting for everything else? Check.
    A non interative design so the system has failure points that can’t be rectified easily? Check.
    A cost plus contract so that this isn’t really the contractors problem? Check.
     
    • Like x 4
    • Funny x 3
    • Informative x 2
    • Love x 2
  5. e-FTW

    e-FTW New electron smell

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    3,216
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    I chuckled when I read those first few words: "Engineers are racing to fix"
    Why would they do that when they have job security through that cost-plus contract?
     
    • Funny x 2
    • Like x 1
  6. Nikxice

    Nikxice Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2014
    Messages:
    1,054
    Location:
    Hudson, NH
    • Like x 3
    • Love x 1
  7. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2015
    Messages:
    5,061
    I desperately want to dislike this post because of the obvious evidence that supports the apparent truth it contains. So I decided I love it anyway because there si hope that Boeing et al might be soon held accountable,at least a little bit.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    5,661
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    • Like x 1
  9. Electroman

    Electroman Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2012
    Messages:
    6,104
    Location:
    TX
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 2
  10. e-FTW

    e-FTW New electron smell

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    3,216
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    • Informative x 2
  11. e-FTW

    e-FTW New electron smell

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    3,216
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    • Informative x 2
  12. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    5,661
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    SLS is so delayed and so costly that SpaceX FH is picking up a lot of its supposed launches. It will stick around for any Orion launches though. It would take an enormous amount of modification for FH to launch an Orion. SH and Starship will put the final nail in SLS when it finally proves itself.
     
    • Like x 1
  13. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    8,229
    Location:
    San Diego
    The way things are going Starship will be ready before anything else in its class.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. e-FTW

    e-FTW New electron smell

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    3,216
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    Getting NASA to “human-rate” FH or Starship would indeed be a massive effort as they have not been part of the process.
     
  15. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    8,229
    Location:
    San Diego
    I don't think it would be worth it yet at this stage to involve NASA. They are still at the engineering prototype stage. None of these rockets are anywhere near final design. They are inventing new technologies and trying them out.

    To give you an example of where they are in the process. Mueller's recent interview recounted how early in Merlin engine development (for the Falcon), Elon kept pushing to reduce cost and Mueller said one big cost factor was the large number of valves. Elon asked how to reduce the number of valves, and Mueller responded that in smaller engines, they would use face shut off valves, but that no one did that for big engines because it was too hard to do. No gold stars for guessing for what came next. Mueller said they must have blown up 100 valves trying to build large face shut off valves for Merlin, but in the end they succeeded and had technology that no one else had.

    That's where they are in Starship development. Figuring out stuff that no one else is even attempting to do, and necessarily blowing up stuff. When they've invented all the new technology they need, then they can build production prototypes and at that point, they can involve NASA.
     
    • Informative x 4
    • Like x 1
  16. Grendal

    Grendal SpaceX Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    5,661
    Location:
    Santa Fe, New Mexico
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  17. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    8,229
    Location:
    San Diego
  18. Cosmacelf

    Cosmacelf Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    8,229
    Location:
    San Diego
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 1
  19. e-FTW

    e-FTW New electron smell

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2015
    Messages:
    3,216
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    100%
    This says it all:
    “Working with Senator Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, Nelson saw that the commercial crew program received less than half of the money the White House sought for commercial crew from 2011 through 2014. Instead, Congress plowed this money into the SLS rocket.”
     
    • Informative x 1

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC