SLS - On the Scent of Inevitable Capitulation

[jbcarioca]

We should also recognize that other companies, notably Blue Origin, are showing promise. Although Blue Origin does have a very slow and methodical process compared with SpaceX (I accept plaudits for understatement) they have been more successful than other non-SpaceX entities. NASA almost certainly will not be prepared to continue single source. SLS should have a mercy killing now and probably Boeing should be eliminated from any future NASA contracts. Despite all the enormous political clout of Boeing the total waste to $18,65 Billion on development alone with forecast single launch cost fo another $2 billion this is unconscionable.

SpaceX and Blue Origin are the only two even plausible options at this point, and only SpaceX has demonstrated orbital success. >100 successful launches with BFR a present reality do suggest that the reality is plausible.

Now it remains to be seen what will happen with a new administration.
At the minimum they'll be loving the Starlink services and Crew Dragon, both of which cost far too little for value received thus inhibiting solid positive congressional response.

 

[Grendal]

Hopefully cancel.

Normally I’m all for government spending on NASA and believe NASA is very important but the SLS is certainly a boondoggle now with SpaceX making great strides. The SLS money would be much better off spent elsewhere. Perhaps more SpaceX contracts and to help with Starship.

All very lovely, but sadly it is Congress that holds the purse strings and those Congresspeople involved in those purse strings will continue to want the money flowing into their districts and states regardless of Party affiliation and administrations. Until there is a 100% viable alternative launching that shames the politicians into dropping their albatross, it isn't going to change. The best we can hope for is continued roundabout support of SpaceX and alternatives. It will take SpaceX successfully launching a number of Starships and Super Heavies to get action. I don't think a New Glenn would be able to kill SLS. It has to be proven to be bigger and better to kill the boondoggle.

JMHO.

 

[Grendal]

Not specifically SLS but issues with the Orion capsule it will carry causing even more delays.
Component failure in NASA’s deep-space crew capsule could take months to fix

 

[Cosmacelf]

Not specifically SLS but issues with the Orion capsule it will carry causing even more delays.
Component failure in NASA’s deep-space crew capsule could take months to fix

Really long production process that you get component mortality just waiting for everything else? Check.
A non interative design so the system has failure points that can’t be rectified easily? Check.
A cost plus contract so that this isn’t really the contractors problem? Check.

 

[e-FTW]

I chuckled when I read those first few words: "Engineers are racing to fix"
Why would they do that when they have job security through that cost-plus contract?

 

[Nikxice]

SLS will soon have one less major political supporter.
AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) to Retire in 2022 - RRH Elections

 

[jbcarioca]

Really long production process that you get component mortality just waiting for everything else? Check.
A non interative design so the system has failure points that can’t be rectified easily? Check.
A cost plus contract so that this isn’t really the contractors problem? Check.

I desperately want to dislike this post because of the obvious evidence that supports the apparent truth it contains. So I decided I love it anyway because there si hope that Boeing et al might be soon held accountable,at least a little bit.

 

[Grendal]

SLS will soon have one less major political supporter.
AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) to Retire in 2022 - RRH Elections

So he's running away before SpaceX succeeds at Starship and Super Heavy.

 

[Electroman]

SLS will soon have one less major political supporter.
AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) to Retire in 2022 - RRH Elections

Good riddance. We should have term limits for senators too. There should be churn and fresh blood in the senate.

 

[e-FTW]

Eric’s send off:
So long Senator Shelby: Key architect of SLS rocket won’t seek reelection

 

[e-FTW]

For a thorough back story on how SLS came to be, the unexpected links to unrelated policies, the deal making realities of politics, read this:
(Spoiler: if you or a loved one enjoys the benefits of the Affordable Care Act, you can thank SLS for it)
https://www.supercluster.com/editorial/the-ugly-bargain-behind-nasas-sls-rocket

The source book (I’ve been nice so far in 2021, feel free to buy me a copy): The Mission

 

[Grendal]

SLS is so delayed and so costly that SpaceX FH is picking up a lot of its supposed launches. It will stick around for any Orion launches though. It would take an enormous amount of modification for FH to launch an Orion. SH and Starship will put the final nail in SLS when it finally proves itself.

 

[Cosmacelf]

SLS is so delayed and so costly that SpaceX FH is picking up a lot of its supposed launches. It will stick around for any Orion launches though. It would take an enormous amount of modification for FH to launch an Orion. SH and Starship will put the final nail in SLS when it finally proves itself.

The way things are going Starship will be ready before anything else in its class.

 

[e-FTW]

Getting NASA to “human-rate” FH or Starship would indeed be a massive effort as they have not been part of the process.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Getting NASA to “human-rate” FH or Starship would indeed be a massive effort as they have not been part of the process.

I don't think it would be worth it yet at this stage to involve NASA. They are still at the engineering prototype stage. None of these rockets are anywhere near final design. They are inventing new technologies and trying them out.

To give you an example of where they are in the process. Mueller's recent interview recounted how early in Merlin engine development (for the Falcon), Elon kept pushing to reduce cost and Mueller said one big cost factor was the large number of valves. Elon asked how to reduce the number of valves, and Mueller responded that in smaller engines, they would use face shut off valves, but that no one did that for big engines because it was too hard to do. No gold stars for guessing for what came next. Mueller said they must have blown up 100 valves trying to build large face shut off valves for Merlin, but in the end they succeeded and had technology that no one else had.

That's where they are in Starship development. Figuring out stuff that no one else is even attempting to do, and necessarily blowing up stuff. When they've invented all the new technology they need, then they can build production prototypes and at that point, they can involve NASA.

 

[Grendal]

No surprise - delayed:
NASA postpones second SLS Green Run test - SpaceNews

 

[Cosmacelf]

No surprise - delayed:
NASA postpones second SLS Green Run test - SpaceNews

“The announcement of the latest delay came just three days after NASA and industry officials held a briefing where they expressed confidence that they were ready to perform the static-fire test on Feb. 25.”

 

[Cosmacelf]

Ugh, Bill Nelson is in the running to be new NASA head. Not good if it happens.

A politician who said politicians shouldn’t run NASA wants to run NASA

 

[e-FTW]

Ugh, Bill Nelson is in the running to be new NASA head. Not good if it happens.

A politician who said politicians shouldn’t run NASA wants to run NASA

100%
This says it all:
“Working with Senator Richard Shelby, a Republican from Alabama, Nelson saw that the commercial crew program received less than half of the money the White House sought for commercial crew from 2011 through 2014. Instead, Congress plowed this money into the SLS rocket.”

 

[Nikxice]

There are a couple of recent stories worth a mention that spotlight SLS.

First, many may have already caught the 60 minutes segment that aired last night. After the first few minutes I thought correspondent Bill Whitaker was just going to roll over and produce an Artemis puff piece. Then the story turned sour for both NASA and Congress. Lori Garver didn't exactly call SLS a jobs program. Instead she pointed to NASA's affinity for doing business in "more of a socialist way". Perhaps not a lot of people care, but that shot probably hit home a little harder in places like Huntsville. She went on to highlight cheaper reusable commercial rockets. (No surprise, Lori Garver's outspoken views have given her almost no chance of becoming the next NASA administrator.)

NASA's new race to put a woman on the moon

Nearly a half-century after the last Apollo astronaut stepped foot on the moon, NASA is working to send its first woman to the lunar surface. Bill Whitaker reports.

www.cbsnews.com

Next is a well written blog by Casey Handmer. Forewarning, it is a long read. A comprehensive, searing indictment of the SLS program. I was surprised to find a comment from Lori Garver in the comments. "Tough to read – but required for anyone making decisions about these types of programs in the future. You lay it out well and none of it made sense even at the time. I just did an interview for 60 Minutes on the topic and wish I’d read this first. Their piece is primarily on Artemis, but to the extent it can’t be extricated from SLS/Orion – I got into many of these issues."

SLS: Is cancellation too good?

The SLS axiomatically cannot provide good value to the US taxpayer. In that regard it has already failed, regardless of whether it eventually manages to limp to orbit with a Falcon Heavy payload or…

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com