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SMS from Tesla re delivery and the virus
- Thread starter jaykaye
- Start date
This is how I recieved my first model s in adelaide so many years ago. I picked it up from the transport yard who knew absolutely nothing. I drove home and then my tesla delivery specialist called me and helped me setup the basics. It was actually quite good fun. Felt adventurous.
At least now we have bio-weapon defense mode.
At least now we have bio-weapon defense mode.
ARMARM
Member
If you're referencing BWDM because of the current global epidemic, BWDM is great for filtering out bushfire smoke and carbon monoxide etc. ... but is of little use for COVID-19, as it's transmitted in droplet form. Just do what I do, avoid people and don't let them in or near your Tesla!
I picked my Model 3 yesterday up with the No Touch option - to process was
* The staff met me (at distance) in front of the delivery area. They opened the roller door and then went back inside and closed the roller door
* I inspected the car and then they called me on my phone and talked me through setting up my phone as a key, pairing via bluetooth and setting up navigation. The key cards were left on the back table (with a bottle of hand sanitiser)
* They asked if I had any questions and then when i didn't they asked me to reply to their email saying i'd taken delivery
* After they confirmed receipt of the email, they opened the roller door then came out to wave me off
Pretty straightforward and i'm loving the car! Though I'm surprised they didn't send it out with a full (as in 90%) battery - came out with ~50%
* The staff met me (at distance) in front of the delivery area. They opened the roller door and then went back inside and closed the roller door
* I inspected the car and then they called me on my phone and talked me through setting up my phone as a key, pairing via bluetooth and setting up navigation. The key cards were left on the back table (with a bottle of hand sanitiser)
* They asked if I had any questions and then when i didn't they asked me to reply to their email saying i'd taken delivery
* After they confirmed receipt of the email, they opened the roller door then came out to wave me off
Pretty straightforward and i'm loving the car! Though I'm surprised they didn't send it out with a full (as in 90%) battery - came out with ~50%
We got the text to for pickup in Richmond next Tuesday. - It does feel quite adventurous. I'm glad there is a way to continue to take delivery!
Shock-On-T
⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Droplets are far bigger than smoke particles and will be filtered no problem. In fact, they would be filtered by any car pollen filter.If you're referencing BWDM because of the current global epidemic, BWDM is great for filtering out bushfire smoke and carbon monoxide etc. ... but is of little use for COVID-19, as it's transmitted in droplet form. Just do what I do, avoid people and don't let them in or near your Tesla!
Of course, the odds are small you'd be driving through a cloud of droplets. They fall to the ground (or other surfaces) in a few minutes. The virus in the droplets can survive on those surfaces up to 5 days.
0.5% of the global population is 41.25 million.
0.5% of Australia's population is 125,000 people.
The restrictions are in place because:
1) there is a sizable vulnerable population
2) rapid spread would leave us unable to give proper care to the vulnerable population, as we already see in some densely-populated cities.
The good news is that if the world is overreacting, the restrictions won't last long.
PS Ebola isn't airborne, which is why the world didn't have to have such significant measures.
Dborn
Confirmed
fully aware of the above. 80% have a cold. 10% feel really crook. 1% die. So far, in oz, 1% require respiratory support. The cruise ship in Yokohama was absolute nirvana for the virus and its spread.20% infection rate! Is there natural immunity at play here? The unnamed flu each season kills .1%. Spreads rapidly, makes you feel pretty crook if you get it. Yes, i know vaccines are available, but not everyone gets one. Sure, that is a major difference. Tom Hanks and wife. Peter Dutton. Common outcome of infection.
BUT shutting down the worlds economy? (And the virus is still spreading anyway) albeit at much slower pace flattening the curve. It seems we are all eventually going to get it (maybe/maybe not), just later on. Same percentage death rate, just over a longer fear period. Italy is an outlier exception. Even there the vast majority of deaths are the elderly with associated secondary infections/conditions. I get the epidemiology. I am a retired doctor. So, i fall into the vulnerable age group. Some precautions to slow down spread are necessary, but not the universal panic now engendered is all i am saying.
Read the following.
Israeli Nobel Laureate: Coronavirus spread is slowing
DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDS
Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."The coronavirus epidemic is slowing down in China, and will not pose a risk to the majority of people, an Israeli Nobel Prize laureate has said.
Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel prize for chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems," has become something of a household name in China over the last few months. Although his specialty is not in epidemiology, he accurately forecast the slowing down of the spread of the virus in February, giving hope to those affected by the lockdown.
But far from being a modern-day prophet, he explained in an interview with Calcalist that he simply crunched the numbers.
Levitt's wife, Shoshan Brosh, is a researcher of Chinese art, meaning that the couple regularly travels between America, Israel and China. Consequently, when the virus broke out in Hubei province, Levitt wrote to his Chinese friends in support.
“When they answered us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion,” Levitt explained. “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”
Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop," Levitt said. "A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Levitt likened the trend to diminishing interest rates: if a person receives a 30% interest rate on their savings on Day 1, a 29% rate on Day 2, and so on, “you understand that eventually, you will not earn very much.”
Similarly, although new cases are being reported in China, they represent a fraction of those reported in the early stages. “Even if the interest rate keeps dropping, you still make money," he said. "The sum you invested does not lessen, it just grows more slowly. When discussing diseases, it frightens people a lot because they keep hearing about new cases every day. But the fact that the infection rate is slowing down means the end of the pandemic is near.”
By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March.
THE REASON for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.
“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people," Levitt said. "But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”
However, that doesn't mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place by governments around the world.
“You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”
Isolation and limiting social contact is not the only factor at play, however. In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.
“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.
Looking at the picture globally, Levitt was reticent to make predictions country-by-country as to when the spread of the virus will slow. China is nearing the point at which the number of new infections will be zero, while South Korea had already moved past the median point, and was starting to see a slow down in new infection rates.
Italy's higher death rate, he said, was likely due to the fact that elderly people make up a greater percentage of the population than they do in other countries such as China or France. “Furthermore, Italian culture is very warm, and Italians have a very rich social life. For these reasons, it is important to keep people apart and prevent sick people from coming into contact with healthy people.”
Israel doesn't have enough cases to provide useful data from which to make predictions, Levitt said, although he praised the government for its preventative measures. "The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine,” he said.
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Mark E
Member
All fine and dandy until the hospital system is overwhelmed and you need some medical attention - whether related to COVID19 or not.
This is at least 10x more dangerous than the flu according to every doctor and health official talking about it, and according to the WHO is approximately twice as contagious.
Yes, most people won't die but your lack of concern for my elderly relatives is duly noted. I'm also aware of your previous occupation.
I think that we are likely to get ahead of this because we have learned from Italy's mistakes - although we didn't act as quickly as Singapore or Taiwan who are doing a lot better than us. Slowing the infection rate down is what's required, and that simply means minimising physical interaction for a relatively short period of time. The economic cost is massive, but the economic cost of letting it go is even greater.
That is, unless you are prepared to let between 1 and 3% of Australians die, which is at least 250k people.
It's funny that you said that yesterday.
I'd say your view somewhat occluded, they're still looking for the bottom of the iceberg.
Another interesting chart - and just for Tesla, NY, CA & Nevada are three of the biggest infection hotspots in the US.
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19821442/italy_us_gap_10.jpg)
An interesting read, although I would have thought the total lockdown in china was the reason the numbers started reducing rather than natural tendencies. I have a friend in italy. They are a family of 5. They are in their home and have no plans on leaving anytime soon. They are however happy, as they now know they are safe, as they have zero external contact. Its that social seperation that keeps them from getting the disease, not the diseases natural diminishment.fully aware of the above. 80% have a cold. 10% feel really crook. 1% die. So far, in oz, 1% require respiratory support. The cruise ship in Yokohama was absolute nirvana for the virus and its spread.20% infection rate! Is there natural immunity at play here? The unnamed flu each season kills .1%. Spreads rapidly, makes you feel pretty crook if you get it. Yes, i know vaccines are available, but not everyone gets one. Sure, that is a major difference. Tom Hanks and wife. Peter Dutton. Common outcome of infection.
BUT shutting down the worlds economy? (And the virus is still spreading anyway) albeit at much slower pace flattening the curve. It seems we are all eventually going to get it (maybe/maybe not), just later on. Same percentage death rate, just over a longer fear period. Italy is an outlier exception. Even there the vast majority of deaths are the elderly with associated secondary infections/conditions. I get the epidemiology. I am a retired doctor. So, i fall into the vulnerable age group. Some precautions to slow down spread are necessary, but not the universal panic now engendered is all i am saying.
Read the following.
Israeli Nobel Laureate: Coronavirus spread is slowing
DONNA RACHEL EDMUNDS
Nobel prize laureate Michael Levitt. (photo credit:Wikimedia Commons)
Michael Levitt praised Israel for its preventative measures. He said most people are naturally immune, and that since the infection rate in China is slowing down, "the end of the pandemic is near."The coronavirus epidemic is slowing down in China, and will not pose a risk to the majority of people, an Israeli Nobel Prize laureate has said.
Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who won the 2013 Nobel prize for chemistry for "the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems," has become something of a household name in China over the last few months. Although his specialty is not in epidemiology, he accurately forecast the slowing down of the spread of the virus in February, giving hope to those affected by the lockdown.
But far from being a modern-day prophet, he explained in an interview with Calcalist that he simply crunched the numbers.
Levitt's wife, Shoshan Brosh, is a researcher of Chinese art, meaning that the couple regularly travels between America, Israel and China. Consequently, when the virus broke out in Hubei province, Levitt wrote to his Chinese friends in support.
“When they answered us, describing how complicated their situation was, I decided to take a deeper look at the numbers in the hope of reaching some conclusion,” Levitt explained. “The rate of infection of the virus in the Hubei province increased by 30% each day — that is a scary statistic. I am not an influenza expert but I can analyze numbers and that is exponential growth.”
Had the growth continued at that rate, the whole world would have become infected within 90 days. But as Levitt continued to process the numbers, the pattern changed. On February 1, when he first looked at the statistics, Hubei Province had 1,800 new cases a day. By February 6, that number had reached 4,700 new cases a day.
But on February 7, something changed. “The number of new infections started to drop linearly and did not stop," Levitt said. "A week later, the same happened with the number of the deaths. This dramatic change in the curve marked the median point and enabled better prediction of when the pandemic will end. Based on that, I concluded that the situation in all of China will improve within two weeks. And, indeed, now there are very few new infection cases.”
Levitt likened the trend to diminishing interest rates: if a person receives a 30% interest rate on their savings on Day 1, a 29% rate on Day 2, and so on, “you understand that eventually, you will not earn very much.”
Similarly, although new cases are being reported in China, they represent a fraction of those reported in the early stages. “Even if the interest rate keeps dropping, you still make money," he said. "The sum you invested does not lessen, it just grows more slowly. When discussing diseases, it frightens people a lot because they keep hearing about new cases every day. But the fact that the infection rate is slowing down means the end of the pandemic is near.”
By plotting the data forward, Levitt has predicted that the virus will likely disappear from China by the end of March.
THE REASON for the slowdown is due to the fact that exponential models assume that people with the virus will continue to infect others at a steady rate. In the early phase of COVID-19, that rate was 2.2 people a day on average.
“In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people," Levitt said. "But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.”
However, that doesn't mean Levitt is dismissive of the precautions being put in place by governments around the world.
“You don’t hug every person you meet on the street now, and you’ll avoid meeting face to face with someone that has a cold, like we did,” Levitt said. “The more you adhere, the more you can keep infection in check. So, under these circumstances, a carrier will only infect 1.5 people every three days and the rate will keep going down.”
Isolation and limiting social contact is not the only factor at play, however. In Wuhan, where the virus first emerged, the whole population theoretically was at risk of becoming infected, but only 3% were.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship represented the worst-case scenario in terms of disease spread, as the close confines of the ship offered optimal conditions for the virus to be passed among those aboard. The population density aboard the ship was the equivalent of trying to cram the whole Israeli population into an area 30 kilometers square. In addition, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system, and communal dining rooms.
“Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu,” Levitt said. Based on those figures, his conclusion was that most people are simply naturally immune.
Looking at the picture globally, Levitt was reticent to make predictions country-by-country as to when the spread of the virus will slow. China is nearing the point at which the number of new infections will be zero, while South Korea had already moved past the median point, and was starting to see a slow down in new infection rates.
Italy's higher death rate, he said, was likely due to the fact that elderly people make up a greater percentage of the population than they do in other countries such as China or France. “Furthermore, Italian culture is very warm, and Italians have a very rich social life. For these reasons, it is important to keep people apart and prevent sick people from coming into contact with healthy people.”
Israel doesn't have enough cases to provide useful data from which to make predictions, Levitt said, although he praised the government for its preventative measures. "The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine,” he said.
Comparing two countries with massively different populations and age demographics is completely pointless. If you compare the rate of infection per million people you will find a completely different result. You can also review the percentage of mortality in various countries now that there is a large data sample. It also presents a very different picture between italy and the US.It's funny that you said that yesterday.
I'd say your view somewhat occluded, they're still looking for the bottom of the iceberg.
Another interesting chart - and just for Tesla, NY, CA & Nevada are three of the biggest infection hotspots in the US.
As for the colourful graphic trying to show covid as historically minor, that chart has no meaning until the virus is under control. Its still too early to know how big it will get.
You should maybe explain the less interaction concept to your fellow sydneysiders, specifically the ones filling the small beaches and shopping precincts. The chances of 250k dying are minimal. There is a threshold where australians will take this more seriously and start self seperation from society in mass numbers out of fear for their lives. Its already evident in conservative adelaide where a large number of businesses in the cbd have closed and staff are working from home, and we havnt had a death yet. The adelaide cbd is even more ghost town like than it used to be. Cafe’s are completely empty at lunch time. Many have closed. There are no 10am coffee ques. Public transport is no longer full and the small peak hour is almost non-existant. I just went down and got adelaide’s finest beachside gelati at 8pm on a saturday night. Normally a 100m que. We walked in and served straight away. Adelaide is self isolating. I’m not in Sydney or the larger cities but are you getting the same reaction?
Ahh, perhaps I wasn't clear. That's diametrically opposite to what I see the charts demonstrate. Rates of hypertension, diabetes and the like in the US and Italy are comparable even given Italy's more aged population. ie. The US presents a similar risk profile and overwhelming their (highly profit geared) medical infrastructure is likely given the current rate of growth - it's feasible they'll end up with similar fatality rates.
The first chart shows how relatively benign the sum effects of Ebola were compared to the emerging virus.
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Dborn
Confirmed
Sydney. Went for a 50km bike ride on Friday - good exercise and a way to socialise while keeping your distance. Was with a group. Returned via darling harbour and the city and over the bridge. Darling harbour at lunch time is usually quite hazardous for bike riders as we fight the pedestrians for space to cross the bridge there. Friday? No issue. Almost no one on the footpath/bridge. Getting through the city also easy. Almost no cars and very few pedestrians crossing at the lights. Mind you, generally on the streets of the inner West where my ride took me, traffic is uniformly very light. Lighter even than during December school holidays. Lots of folk must be staying home or else in car parks while at the supermarkets fighting over toilet paper!!
Dborn
Confirmed
I do think you misunderstood me. Not a lack of concern. Acceptance of reality. I am, as indicated in the vulnerable group and am practicing what is recommended. However the impact on the younger working age population around the world is beyond huge. If you read what i wrote, i did indicate the10 fold difference in the death rate.
I read a report from the USA a short time ago (but cant find it now to publish here) regarding this very point. The person compared the response to military action of two types. The surgical strike and the global war. What we are doing is global war, what he recommends is the surgical strike, the latter being directing resources to protecting the known at risk population and allowing the majority who get mild illness to simply get it and get over it. Those who get it will most likely be immune, and will not pass the disease on and will be able to take over and keep things going. We are breathlessly publishing figures about new infections, but not a word about the really big news in all this - those that have recovered.
Following published by ABC Australia.
Doubts cast over contracting COVID-19 twice
We are very likely to develop immunity to COVID-19, making re-infection unlikely and raising the chances of vaccines being highly effective, according to the Australian scientist who discovered an important way the immune system fights viruses.
Key points:
Professor Doherty does not think contracting COVID-19 twice is very likely
He says if a patient did catch it twice, the prior infection would give them rapid immunity
He believes a vaccine will be available within 12 to 18 months
In 1996, Peter Doherty won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for discovering how the immune system identifies cells that have been infected by a virus.
He said reports of people contracting COVID-19 twice are unlikely to be true.
"I would be sceptical. But you can't say with absolute certainty," he told the ABC.
"I would think even if it was a reinfection, that your prior infection would give you very rapid immunity and you would recover very quickly."
Coronavirus questions answered
Breaking down the latest news and research to understand how the world is living through an epidemic, this is the ABC's Coronacast.
Professor Doherty said it was more likely that the test results suggesting the patients were clear of the virus were wrong.
That could happen if the virus was not infecting the part of the body where the swab was taken from but instead infecting deeper in the lungs, Professor Doherty said.
"I suspect they've been infected all along. It's just that this area that's been sampled hasn't been detecting it."
What the experts are saying about coronavirus:
Should I keep my children home from school due to coronavirus?
A recession is probably around the corner, and it's not all thanks to coronavirus
He said with some flu strains, people who have been infected have had strong immunity 50 years later, but that not much work had been done on coronaviruses until SARS — another coronavirus — was identified in 2003.
The coronavirus causing COVID-19 is not a particularly rapidly-mutating one, he said, giving more hope that immunity — or a vaccine — would provide long-term protection.
He said estimates a vaccine would be available within 12 to 18 months were very realistic.
"I think the 18 months is probably on the long side," he said.
"It may well be that China may bash ahead a lot quicker, then come up with an effective vaccine.
"I hope we'll have something in 12 months.
"I would say it's very likely we will develop a vaccine for COVID-19 and it will be a good vaccine."
Quieting the immune system in severe cases
Professor Doherty said there was also hope for treatment of severe cases of COVID-19, by quieting part of the immune system's response to the virus.
Stay up-to-date on the coronavirus outbreak
Download the ABC News app and subscribe to our range of news alerts for the latest on how the pandemic is impacting the world
In some of the most severely affected cases, it appeared the immune system was going into overdrive and an inflammatory response to the virus was killing people.
He said existing drugs used for inflammatory conditions like rheumatoid arthritis had some promise in treating that, by blocking the inflammatory molecules produced by the immune system.
"I believe there are some promising results out of China, where they are blocking some of those molecules," he said.
How to protect yourself
Professor Doherty warned people to take this virus very seriously.
"Do not think that this is just another influenza. It's killing at least 10 times as many people as influenza," he said.
"And it's particularly lethal for those in their 70s and 80s, it is dangerous and older people need to isolate themselves."
And he had one other piece of advice.
Recovering from COVID-19
Australian researchers have found that the body is capable of fighting off COVID-19 and that in mild to moderate cases, the body's response to the virus was much like how bodies respond to influenza.
The Centers for Disease Control in the United States says it's not yet known for how long, or if at all, a person who has recovered from COVID-19 is protected from developing the condition again.
NSW Health indicates that for someone with an ongoing health issue or respiratory condition, it may take weeks to recover.
How do you know who is going to get it mildly beforehand? I believe even 1/5 of the normal & younger population are requiring a visit to emergency or ICU to get some treatment.
One Chinese study (albeit too small to extrapolate but we just don't have better information yet), indicated 25% of recovered patients had permanent pulmonary damage, sometimes up to 30% of pulmonary function.
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