So has Tesla hit 200k US deliveries? Is the tax credit over in September or December?

[Anzir]

It looks like Tesla gave their numbers for deliveries in Q2. They were 10k less than expectations, which hit the stock price a little. But was that intentional to give prospective buyers until the end of the year to obtain delivery of their vehicle and still gain the full $7500 Fed Tax credit? I thought I would see articles about this by now but I haven't run across anything.

 

[Petra]

No official announcement has been made one way or the other.

 

[boaterva]

With all the non-deliveries that went on (thousands of car were produced and stockpiled, etc.) everyone is assuming that means 200K is July, so full credit through end of 2018. But, yes, we don’t have an official declaration. Someone said the IRS needs to certify that number so perhaps paperwork is en route and we would hear soon.

 

[mongo]

With all the non-deliveries that went on (thousands of car were produced and stockpiled, etc.) everyone is assuming that means 200K is July, so full credit through end of 2018. But, yes, we don’t have an official declaration. Someone said the IRS needs to certify that number so perhaps paperwork is en route and we would hear soon.

Probably me...

Tesla reports numbers to IRS before the end of the month after the end of the quarter. IRS sends acceptance within 30 days. To be on the safe side, Tesla may hold off on announcing anything until that process is finalized just to be sure Q2 was officially under 200k.

More info
Internal Revenue Bulletin: 2009-48 | Internal Revenue Service

 

[ab26]

So inside evs updated the sales number of Model S/X/3 for June. Based on that, it seems like we crossed 200k in June (which means credit ends September).

Wonder how accurate these numbers are. Inside evs have been accurate in the past but not sure about this month.

 

[Anzir]

Makes me glad I put my order in. There will still be a $3750 credit for 2 quarters afterwards, but tax credits are golden since they can be used for any income bracket.

 

[mongo]

So inside evs updated the sales number of Model S/X/3 for June. Based on that, it seems like we crossed 200k in June (which means credit ends September).

Wonder how accurate these numbers are. Inside evs have been accurate in the past but not sure about this month.

InsideEVs adjusts the 3rd month of a quarter so that their quarterly total matches Tesla's reported numbers.
Tesla likely put a stop on sales at the end of June to delay 200k, insideEVs cannot model that based on the previous weeks/ months rate. They may also be underestimating Canadian sales.

Makes me glad I put my order in. There will still be a $3750 credit for 2 quarters afterwards, but tax credits are golden since they can be used for any income bracket.

General info:
The quarter they cross 200k and the following quarter are both the full 7,500. Then 2 quarters of 1/2, then 2 quarters of 1/4.
The credit is a non-refundable one. If your tax liability is less than the credit, your federal tax goes to zero, but that's it.

 

[Anzir]

IGeneral info:
The quarter they cross 200k and the following quarter are both the full 7,500. Then 2 quarters of 1/2, then 2 quarters of 1/4.
The credit is a non-refundable one. If your tax liability is less than the credit, your federal tax goes to zero, but that's it.

Yes, so technically if Tesla passed 200k deliveries in June, the 7500 would be over in September. Given order turnaround on the S's and X's, it would still be feasible to get either before the end of September but Model 3's are in a predicament.

 

[mongo]

Yes, so technically if Tesla passed 200k deliveries in June, the 7500 would be over in September. Given order turnaround on the S's and X's, it would still be feasible to get either before the end of September but Model 3's are in a predicament.

Indeed!
I threw the 'general info' on there to attempt to indicate I was not contradicting anything previously stated.

 

[dhanson865]

I went ahead and tweeted Elon asking when we'd get official confirmation. No telling if he'll reply but if you tweet feel free to ask the same or retweet my question.

My question on twitter

 

[mongo]

I went ahead and tweeted Elon asking when we'd get official confirmation. No telling if he'll reply but if you tweet feel free to ask the same or retweet my question.

My question on twitter

Tesla cannot say it did not happen in Q2 until the IRS certifies that it did not happen in Q2 which can take up to 30 days after Tesla submits the Q2 number to the IRS.

 

[Anzir]

Let's say it did pass 200k and it's not certified until mid Aug. That leaves 6 weeks which will not be enough time to deliver a new order unless it's a P100D.

Tesla cannot say it did not happen in Q2 until the IRS certifies that it did not happen in Q2 which can take up to 30 days after Tesla submits the Q2 number to the IRS.

 

[S'toon]

Don't forget, the $7,500 credit doesn't go to 0. It ramps down to a lesser amount each quarter.

 

[brianman]

Don't forget, the $7,500 credit doesn't go to 0. It ramps down to a lesser amount each quarter.

... each 6 months.

 

[Patrick0101]

Now that it seems very likely that the 200k mark will be (has been) crossed in early July, Tesla has to deliver as many cars as they can before the end of the year when the tax credit will be halved.
Cars With Cords: Tesla's Race With The US Tax Credit

 

[ab26]

Now that it seems very likely that the 200k mark will be (has been) crossed in early July, Tesla has to deliver as many cars as they can before the end of the year when the tax credit will be halved.
Cars With Cords: Tesla's Race With The US Tax Credit

The article is speculative about Tesla crossing $200k in July. Insideevs data point suggest that we crossed 200k in June by 7k. Only thing that would refute insideevs is if there are any errors in the accounting.

 

[mongo]

Only thing that would refute insideevs is if there are any errors in the accounting.

Adding numbers is the easy part, knowing what the numbers to add are is hard...

Things that would refute InsideEVs:

• If they underestimated Canada (seems likely given the reports from the Ontario threads)
  
• If sales to government/ municipalities don't count toward the 200k (Tesla needs to report consumer sales, that may not include government units)
  
• If sales made in the US specifically for export don't count (unsupported countries)

The categorical offsets (if they exist) would apply for the whole time span from 2010 onward...

 

[clove503]

Electric Vehicle Incentives

Looks like they confirm that they have or will hit the 200k in Q3

 

[S'toon]

Tesla confirms hitting federal tax credit threshold, $7,500 credit cut in half at end of 2018