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So, is that it for AP1? Beta forever?

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Don't feel bad, I think right up to this point, I have more confidence on AP1 over AP2. After having driven on the same 20 mile commute for 2 years on AP1, switching over to AP2 car I've seen way more close calls on these same roads than I can care for. Even though AP2 does have some noticeable improvements (such as smoother deceleration/braking due to presumably better depth perception on multiple cameras), it still has issues keeping lanes... steering wheel jerks left and right in certain areas, sometimes unexplained brake checking even tho nobody in front of the car, or drifting into next lane (clearly marked lines) and then warning me to take over immediately...

Somehow I think the software guys at Tesla have their hands full.. first trying to catch up on AP2, now they've got to deal with the AP hardware/software on the M3. Similar in many ways, but also different in many ways.
Exactly. I've had the exact same experience and take-away.
 
Can us owners of AP1 have any reasonable expectation of improvements to it when those improvements at best can only be incremental?

It's far more advantageous for Tesla to focus on AP2 improvements that use SW that they largely dictate. They spent about a year attempting to reach parity with AP1 on SW they control.

I think we have to accept that AP1 will still be better than AP2/AP2.5 in some ways, but we're largely locked into what we have. That's okay by me as the improvements I want have more to with navigation, and other things. Like the recent firmware upgrade that turns on the heated steering while if it was on when the car was used last.

I can't think of any low hanging fruit for AP1. In fact as soon as they announced AP2 I was hoping that Tesla would lock down AP1 as this was during a period we were losing more than we were gaining (as they were cracking down on abusers).

I wouldn't be envious of AP2 owners as they are going to be in the same boat soon. We're so far away from what it's actually going to take that we have no idea what the requirements are going to be.

Where what it takes is?
Can TACC slow down with 99.99 percentage accuracy for a stopped vehicle?
Can AP stay in the lane with 99.99 percentage on roads with really bad lines or no lines?
Does AP work in the rain on a reasonably poor day (not counting ridiculous storms)?
Does Side Monitoring actually work?
Can the rear camera sense the distance to the car behind it to make sure it can respond to a situation similar to how a driver might avoid being rear ended by not stopping too quickly.
Is the car capable of Level 4 or Level 5 autonomous driving?

Instead it's going to a constant "Are we there yet" question.

The simple answer with HW1/HW2/HW2.5 is a no. At the end of the day the sensors in HW2/HW2.5 don't allow for what I have listed. Sure they have more than what HW1 has. Sure that will translate into improvements, but only incremental.

Like I believe AP2 is better at identifying lines, and this is beneficial. But, it's not that's not enough to really motivate me to upgrade. If AP2/AP2.5 is capable of Level 3 driving that's a big enough differential that I would consider it.

I do expect to be somewhat jealous of AP2/AP2.5 owners for the next 6 months. Since I think they're finally going to start getting what they paid for with EAP.

So let them have their fun, and then we can have our fun with AP3.