So Like it has been a Month, What If..

[Barklikeadog]

Hasn't really hurt them too much previously it seems. Nearly all of their product deliveries have fallen behind schedule at some point, but their valuation, in general, continues to go up.

The only reason I think this time is different is due to quantity. So they predict they will sell 21,000 or whatever Model S in a quarter and then they report 19,900.
Next year they could come up short by 50,000 or 75,000 or more. It could be 2 or 3 billion in sales that don't happen in 2018.

 

[gregincal]

The only reason I think this time is different is due to quantity. So they predict they will sell 21,000 or whatever Model S in a quarter and then they report 19,900.
Next year they could come up short by 50,000 or 75,000 or more. It could be 2 or 3 billion in sales that don't happen in 2018.

It depends on the reason for the shortfall. If they are just behind on their ramp, no big deal. A little short one quarter but in the end it makes no difference, the small numbers in these early quarters don't necessarily translate to larger shortfalls later. If they have trouble for a more extended time getting to the maximum production they predict that could be worse. However, only thing that really counts long term for valuation is how many they can build and sell quarter after quarter once they've fully ramped and worked their way through the reservations.

In the meantime, the exact numbers during these first couple quarters really only matters to those of us rabid to get our early cars.

 

[Big-T]

I'd think if they get too far behind in the ramp the stock is going to take a beating at least temporarily.

 

[Stolz25]

I'm not complaining. That's how you are viewing things.

Indeed, complaining is by nature subjective. However, it's usually determined by the people hearing the complaint, not the complainer. Most complainers would probably deny they are complaining. We could do a poll I guess?

 

[EpiKAC]

I refuse to vote in a poll when the original question includes the work LIKE, used in the way virtually every teenage girl does these days: at least three times per sentence.

"So Like it has been a Month, What If.."

I was going to skip this thread entirely, but wanted to see if the commentary within was befitting such a thoughtful post title. You people have not let me down. It's been fabulous!

Oh, and "Thank you for all the people who have PMed and e-mailed me with your support." (Whomever came up with this, I've now seen it three times on these forums today. Is that the new standard reply after someone gets their butt handed to them by the rest of the group so they pull this out from under a rock as an attempt to save face?)

You guys have made my day. Thank you for that!

 

[Barklikeadog]

PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 02, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In Q3, Tesla delivered 26,150 vehicles, of which 14,065 were Model S, 11,865 were Model X, and 220 were Model 3. This was our all-time best quarter for Model S and X deliveries, representing a 4.5% increase over Q3 2016, our previous best quarter, and a 17.7% increase over Q2 2017.

We had previously indicated that second half Model S and X deliveries would likely exceed first half deliveries of 47,077, but we now expect to exceed that by several thousand vehicles. In total, we expect to deliver about 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, which would be a 31% increase over 2016.

In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 4,820 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q4 2017.

Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model 3. Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks. Although the vast majority of manufacturing subsystems at both our California car plant and our Nevada Gigafactory are able to operate at high rate, a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.







You can always change your vote :/

 

[gregincal]

PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 02, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In Q3, Tesla delivered 26,150 vehicles, of which 14,065 were Model S, 11,865 were Model X, and 220 were Model 3. This was our all-time best quarter for Model S and X deliveries, representing a 4.5% increase over Q3 2016, our previous best quarter, and a 17.7% increase over Q2 2017.

We had previously indicated that second half Model S and X deliveries would likely exceed first half deliveries of 47,077, but we now expect to exceed that by several thousand vehicles. In total, we expect to deliver about 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, which would be a 31% increase over 2016.

In addition to Q3 deliveries, about 4,820 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter. These will be counted as deliveries in Q4 2017.

Q3 production totaled 25,336 vehicles, with 260 of them being Model 3. Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks. Although the vast majority of manufacturing subsystems at both our California car plant and our Nevada Gigafactory are able to operate at high rate, a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.







You can always change your vote :/

I'm still happy with my vote of 3000/week. We'll see.

 

[206er]

wish there was a sub-1000 option. I'm really feeling down about the Model 3 today.

 

[206er]

I refuse to vote in a poll when the original question includes the work LIKE, used in the way virtually every teenage girl does these days: at least three times per sentence.

What's a "work LIKE"? How 'bout some, um, like, um, better self-editing, brah?

Thanks for stopping by to add your 2 cents while refraining from voting, LULZ

 

[Barklikeadog]

What's a "work LIKE"? How 'bout some, um, like, um, better self-editing, brah?

Thanks for stopping by to add your 2 cents while refraining from voting, LULZ

this is the original post... I also started a sentence with 'Ok'
I should delete this account

Ok so you just argued for 12 pages about patience and expectations...
and I know the people on this forum aren't going to cancel reservations.

This is my What If...
What will happen if Tesla goes into 2018 only producing 2000 Model 3s per week instead of 5000?
I don't think this is too outlandish. What are the repercussions of Tesla only building 150,000 next year
instead of 250,000?

I'm going to assume 500,000 reservations by the end of 2017... how do you think the people -not- on this forum will handle having their
late 2018 reservation pushed back to late 2019?
Obviously the other manufacturers, stock market, and media will be throwing grenades.

Please give some predictions

 

[david_42]

I have some experience with manufacturing and once you solve the problems ramp up is amazing. The last project I was involved in the first 100 units took three months, the remaining 9,900 one month.

 

[mmd]

I have some experience with manufacturing and once you solve the problems ramp up is amazing. The last project I was involved in the first 100 units took three months, the remaining 9,900 one month.

Yeah, but the big difference is you are not Elon Musk Neither did you promise 10000 in the first month.
These silly realities don't apply to him; that's why his company is worth mega billions His guess was to produce 100k-200k Model 3 in second half of 2017 alone, and all the analysts slurped that plan up with glee Then, he toned down a bit, came down to 1630 Model 3 in Q3 Then, down to 1500 as in the Q2 share holder letter. There were never any "bottlenecks" that Elon saw even 2 months ago.
Now we know that the actual number was a mere 230 M3s in Q3 .

Here is what I said before, and stand firm. Tesla has ZERO incentive to increase Model 3 production till full Fed tax credits are still there. They will like to use the full credit to sell the higher priced Model S instead. When Tesla first said that there is no "signature Model 3", I guess many thought, that means whoever stood in line are going to get their cars first. But that's not going to happen either. Long range M3s will probably get partial fed tax credit.

At the same time, Tesla sales is calling up M3 reservation holders, telling them lies that the fed tax credit is expiring in Q3 of 2017. One of my friends got scammed by this trick. But they have money. I suspect Tesla ran a credit check without permission to find out that they are the kind of people who can afford a Model S. By the time Tesla finishes pulling in all these people, there won't be many M3 buyers left.

 

[CTreast]

At the same time, Tesla sales is calling up M3 reservation holders, telling them lies that the fed tax credit is expiring in Q3 of 2017. One of my friends got scammed by this trick. But they have money. I suspect Tesla ran a credit check without permission to find out that they are the kind of people who can afford a Model S. By the time Tesla finishes pulling in all these people, there won't be many M3 buyers left.

That does sound shady but truth be told, if I could responsibly afford an S I'd do it tomorrow.

 

[siggyfreud]

Yeah, but the big difference is you are not Elon Musk Neither did you promise 10000 in the first month.
These silly realities don't apply to him; that's why his company is worth mega billions His guess was to produce 100k-200k Model 3 in second half of 2017 alone, and all the analysts slurped that plan up with glee Then, he toned down a bit, came down to 1630 Model 3 in Q3 Then, down to 1500 as in the Q2 share holder letter. There were never any "bottlenecks" that Elon saw even 2 months ago.
Now we know that the actual number was a mere 230 M3s in Q3 .

Here is what I said before, and stand firm. Tesla has ZERO incentive to increase Model 3 production till full Fed tax credits are still there. They will like to use the full credit to sell the higher priced Model S instead. When Tesla first said that there is no "signature Model 3", I guess many thought, that means whoever stood in line are going to get their cars first. But that's not going to happen either. Long range M3s will probably get partial fed tax credit.

At the same time, Tesla sales is calling up M3 reservation holders, telling them lies that the fed tax credit is expiring in Q3 of 2017. One of my friends got scammed by this trick. But they have money. I suspect Tesla ran a credit check without permission to find out that they are the kind of people who can afford a Model S. By the time Tesla finishes pulling in all these people, there won't be many M3 buyers left.

I felt like Elon was very clear at the reveal at how easy it would be to bottleneck production. He said all it would take was one part from one supplier.

As to them running a credit check, I very much doubt it. But it would be easy for your friend to find out if he/she suspected it. Until then that's just speculative accusation. And please stop private messaging me nude photos of yourself.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Should find out the October update this week... time to adjust your vote

 

[Barklikeadog]

Damn, I should have created an under 1000 selection. I have been hugely pessimistic on the projections but this is well below what I thought would happen.

 

[number12]

Damn, I should have created an under 1000 selection. I have been hugely pessimistic on the projections but this is well below what I thought would happen.

I tried to tell you.

So Like it has been a Month, What If..

 

[Barklikeadog]

Tesla is not just shooting from the hip with these estimates. This is a well-planned process with many, many suppliers lined up to deliver the thousands of parts needed, when they are needed. They cannot afford to have mountains of parts piling up that are not being turned into cars. A lot of smart people are working on this problem, with a very specific plan of execution. The fact they are willing to give such firm delivery dates (a three month window is nothing) for all the U.S. customers confirms they are quite confident in their ability to execute. I would be very surprised if they don't hit very near 5000 cars per week by the last week of the year.

I selected 4000, as I expect that to be their average production rate over December. 3000 at the beginning, 5000 at the end.

You win!

 

[comanchepilot]

I'm curious 5000 cars a week, 52 weeks = 260,000 cars.

Where do 500,000 vehicles come from? They've only built 140,000 other models to date. . . .

 

[daniel]

I'm curious 5000 cars a week, 52 weeks = 260,000 cars.

Where do 500,000 vehicles come from? They've only built 140,000 other models to date. . . .

The Model 3 is a less-expensive car, so demand is much greater, and they're planning to produce it in much larger numbers to meet the big demand. And I don't think 5,000 cars per week was ever supposed to be the maximum output. That's just a milestone indicating that lots of cars are rolling off the assembly line.