So the Model 3 is real, and in prod: what will the naysayers shift to now?

[e-FTW]

We have just seen the first pictures on serial number 1. It is a real car, and produced at the factory by Tesla.
So if you are a Tesla bear, what do you shift to? You used to say “they won’t make it to production” or “no way they deliver cars to customers in July”.

How about:
- Not being a traditional automaker, they will not scale fast enough, the number of deliveries will be low
- They will be of low quality because of unorthodox production methods
- Most customers have cancelled! Elon is hiding the real numbers!

I look forward to Tesla destroying each and every one of those attempts at bringing down Tesla and Elon. You are on, bears.

 

[JeffK]

We have just seen the first pictures on serial number 1. It is a real car, and produced at the factory by Tesla.
So if you are a Tesla bear, what do you shift to? You used to say “they won’t make it to production” or “no way they deliver cars to customers in July”.

How about:
- Not being a traditional automaker, they will not scale fast enough, the number of deliveries will be low
- They will be of low quality because of unorthodox production methods
- Most customers have cancelled! Elon is hiding the real numbers!

I look forward to Tesla destroying each and every one of those attempts at bringing down Tesla and Elon. You are on, bears.

You have it right about the first one. Most of the arguments have been about how fast they will scale. I'm not sure anyone actually doubted they could build a single car in the month of July. Their new guidance of 30 cars in July is far lower than the assumed 4000 based on supplier orders.
Such high supplier orders and low output also means Tesla will be holding parts and owing people money. Same will be true for August.

 

[Jayc]

FYI I have been following very closely the past year or so what some of these naysayers say regarding M3 and Tesla. Here are some of the conclusions I have made:

* Almost all of them have a conflict of interest with what they say/do publicely vs privately even when they declare otherwise
* Most of them claim to have inside information but usually not available to cross verify publicly so no value at all
* Some naysayers have a loyal following who act as automatic bots to spread invented information without validating accuracy
* Most thrive on headlines, if you collect them and order by time line, some conflict with others with no logical explanation
* Very little evidence of honesty, almost every naysayer seem to be driven by self-gain but not readily apparent
* Across the industry, did not come across any instances where it would have been beneficial to be honest, generally it seems honesty does not pay in that line of business.

 

[AceSkywalker]

The lines of "people don't want EVs" and "having EVs is too significant of a lifestyle change for many"

Which is kinda grounded in some truth until its feasible to have batteries that can fast charge to full from dead in less than 10 minutes.

 

[JeffK]

The lines of "people don't want EVs" and "having EVs is too significant of a lifestyle change for many"

Which is kinda grounded in some truth until its feasible to have batteries that can fast charge to full from dead in less than 10 minutes.

This only affects those that travel and those that do will typically stop for food or a bathroom break making this a non-issue if there was a larger charging infrastructure.
Instead of stopping for 10 minutes and waiting for a charge or stopping five minutes and filling up with gas, you simply do what you'd normally do. In a future with self driving cars this gets even easier.

 

[22522]

The next logical step is converting the deposits into sales.

They will challenge each and every step, so they will challenge that step.

The next step is living past the end of the tax rebate (giant lull).

They will challenge that.

 

[AceSkywalker]

This only affects those that travel and those that do will typically stop for food or a bathroom break making this a non-issue if there was a larger charging infrastructure.
Instead of stopping for 10 minutes and waiting for a charge or stopping five minutes and filling up with gas, you simply do what you'd normally do. In a future with self driving cars this gets even easier.

No, it affects more than just travelers.

1. Tesla is changing the focus of Superchargers to additionally serve people who cannot charge at home for whatever reason. Ultra fast charging is a necessity in that case so the charging stations aren't backed up.

2. Charging at it currently is takes anywhere from 20-40 minutes plus. I've never had road trip stops that long, but then again I was raised by parents who shut off the water if they felt you were taking too long in the shower (read: more than 2 minutes) and got mad if you took more than 5 minutes to finish dinner.

 

[Stolz25]

No, it affects more than just travelers.

1. Tesla is changing the focus of Superchargers to additionally serve people who cannot charge at home for whatever reason. Ultra fast charging is a necessity in that case so the charging stations aren't backed up.

2. Charging at it currently is takes anywhere from 20-40 minutes plus. I've never had road trip stops that long, but then again I was raised by parents who shut off the water if they felt you were taking too long in the shower (read: more than 2 minutes) and got mad if you took more than 5 minutes to finish dinner.

That last one is actually unhealthy and part of the reason Americans are so overweight in general.

 

[Matias]

We have just seen the first pictures on serial number 1. It is a real car, and produced at the factory by Tesla.
So if you are a Tesla bear, what do you shift to? You used to say “they won’t make it to production” or “no way they deliver cars to customers in July”.

How about:
- Not being a traditional automaker, they will not scale fast enough, the number of deliveries will be low
- They will be of low quality because of unorthodox production methods
- Most customers have cancelled! Elon is hiding the real numbers!

I look forward to Tesla destroying each and every one of those attempts at bringing down Tesla and Elon. You are on, bears.

Profit

 

[Twiglett]

The lines of "people don't want EVs" and "having EVs is too significant of a lifestyle change for many"

Which is kinda grounded in some truth until its feasible to have batteries that can fast charge to full from dead in less than 10 minutes.

Having owned an EV for over three years I would agree with the statement but dispute the assertion that fast charging is a requirement for acceptance.
Acceptance comes from understanding, nothing more, it doesn't require huge infrastructures.

 

[McRat]

We have just seen the first pictures on serial number 1. It is a real car, and produced at the factory by Tesla.
So if you are a Tesla bear, what do you shift to? You used to say “they won’t make it to production” or “no way they deliver cars to customers in July”.

How about:
- Not being a traditional automaker, they will not scale fast enough, the number of deliveries will be low
- They will be of low quality because of unorthodox production methods
- Most customers have cancelled! Elon is hiding the real numbers!

I look forward to Tesla destroying each and every one of those attempts at bringing down Tesla and Elon. You are on, bears.

< not TSLA short. Bears are not all hype. There is some logic to it and it has nothing to do with TSLA specifically.

TSLA stock prices took an 'adjustment' recently. In theory a publicly held company is worth what the stock is.
So when nothing monumentally bad happens financially yet a company loses ~25% of it's 'value' in 2 weeks, it does make you wonder what the stock price is based on other than a random number generator. It normally takes a very, very large sinkhole to lose that much of your assets that fast. I suppose there could have been a tornado in Fremont, but that's pretty rare.

So due to random number theory, a bull position and bear position based on a random value are going to be identical when sampled enough.

 

[thegruf]

Tesla won't have enough batteries to meet the numbers.

Oh wait - they will,
it's everybody else that applies to

 

[Jtrader]

The only naysaying I'll do is say that if it gets over 250 miles of range, then many that would have bought a MS will opt for the M3. The M3 looks bigger and nicer than I expected it to.

 

[jelloslug]

We have just seen the first pictures on serial number 1. It is a real car, and produced at the factory by Tesla.
So if you are a Tesla bear, what do you shift to? You used to say “they won’t make it to production” or “no way they deliver cars to customers in July”.

How about:
- Not being a traditional automaker, they will not scale fast enough, the number of deliveries will be low
- They will be of low quality because of unorthodox production methods
- Most customers have cancelled! Elon is hiding the real numbers!

I look forward to Tesla destroying each and every one of those attempts at bringing down Tesla and Elon. You are on, bears.

As for the "cancelled orders" argument, you could point out the money that is being held from reservations that is on every quarterly financial filing.

 

[Matias]

To me the ultimate question is, will Tesla make profit.

Ps. I own both the car and stock

 

[EinSV]

In addition to the points in the OP, bears will claim:

• Competition will crush Tesla in 2-3 years
• Model 3 orders are fake/have already peaked
• Tesla "loses money on every car it sells"
• Model 3 is not everything it is cracked up to be because [fill in complaint of choice]
  
• Character assassination -- Tesla is bad because [fill in complaint of choice]
• More character assassination -- Tesla owners who enjoy their cars are fanboy weirdos who are not like normal people

You know, the usual stuff.

 

[sandpiper]

A little skepticism is good. If somebody/some organization hears nothing but blind adoration and fawning, they start to believe their own press. Elon and team are absolutely fallible. They've done a great job but have messed some things up. You need the critics to keep those things are the forefront, and to keep them sharp.

 

[JeffK]

I was raised by parents who shut off the water if they felt you were taking too long in the shower (read: more than 2 minutes) and got mad if you took more than 5 minutes to finish dinner.

You weren't by any chanced raised by a Marine were you.... this sounds very familiar.

 

[timk225]

They will claim that Tesla would have failed if not for government subsidies on each car.
What's the real story with government subsidies going to Tesla, anyhow?

 

[ecarfan]

I'm not sure anyone actually doubted they could build a single car in the month of July.

I can recall a number of "analysts" and uninformed onlookers (seekingalpha I'm looking at you) saying that Tesla would not produce any Model 3s until 2018 based on how late the Model X was. They didn't seem to understand that Elon learned a valuable lesson with the X, said so publicly many times, and was determined to simplify the Model 3 to lower costs and make production easier. Now it is all about how fast 3 production can ramp, and no one outside of Tesla has any meaningful visibility into that process.

I was glad to see the new photos of Model 3 VIN 001 this morning.