So the Model 3 is real, and in prod: what will the naysayers shift to now?

[Sparky22]

Here's the problem.

Let's say you want to travel distances in an EV. Cities are often places you drive through. If the city chargers are always full with local owners, you cannot effectively use an EV for long range travel unless time is something you have no have interest in at all.

If you want a useful EV charging grid, you either need to disallow local owners from charging, or increase the number of urban chargers. This does NOT improve the coverage of the grid, only it's usefulness.

The problem started by not looking far enough forward. If you build free chargers, but people have to pay to charge at home, local people will always grab some free power when possible. Like seeing a $5 bill on the ground. $5 ain't much money. So do you ignore it?

The model should have ALWAYS been, from day one, a fair price for charging to help expand the SC grid where it's really needed, not just mostly cities. You'd already have far more expansion with monies from the SC usage.

Free is good for the short term only. It is not a benefit to EV buyers in the long run. There are about 140,000 locations in the US to refuel your ICE. But that only takes 5-10 minutes. You would need 3-5 times that number to achieve parity for EVs.

LOL well if the earth get hit by astroid that would be the end, holy smoke relax give Tesla some credit I am sure they will find a way to deal with all the problems as they've done so far.
Most people will charge at home because it's convenient the cost of electricity is very low compared to gasoline. If there is a rough start to all the new model 3s be it, over time things will get better I truly believe it. The ICE engines will not be produced in lot of European countries relatively soon and all the attention will be on renewable energy and charging.
Tesla will be in the forefront of most of the car companies who are trying to preserve the status quo together with the oil companies.
The advantages of EV's are huge, there is no going back.

 

[McRat]

This might be an unpopular opinion here, but once the 3 scales, I don't think Tesla needs to worry about S sales. That's not to say they don't need the S--the idea that one of the fastest production cars in existence is electric is a huge feather in their cap, and is easily still the most inspirational EV in existence. But car companies like Chevy aren't going to fret too much about corvette sales--the main purpose of the corvette is brand identity, not margins. Just like if you ogle a corvette but settle on a more practical Chevy instead, Tesla will be more than happy to have its flagship S lag in sales if its very existence leads people to buy a 3.

Just a little correction. Corvette has as high of margin as any high-margin vehicle GM sells. It is a money maker that also has halo versions.

When Camaros stopped being profitable (2002), they dropped them. If Corvettes start losing money, they will drop them.

 

[3Victoria]

I suspect there will be room to reduce prices once the volume is ramped up due economies of scale.

 

[McRat]

LOL well if the earth get hit by astroid that would be the end, holy smoke relax give Tesla some credit I am sure they will find a way to deal with all the problems as they've done so far.
Most people will charge at home because it's convenient the cost of electricity is very low compared to gasoline. If there is a rough start to all the new model 3s be it, over time things will get better I truly believe it. The ICE engines will not be produced in lot of European countries relatively soon and all the attention will be on renewable energy and charging.
Tesla will be in the forefront of most of the car companies who are trying to preserve the status quo together with the oil companies.
The advantages of EV's are huge, there is no going back.

So you are telling me that when you stop somewhere with free charging you don't take it, even if you don't need it?

Or if you are ICE, if a gas station is selling gas for $1 a gallon cheaper because of a mistake, you won't top off your tank even if you have 1/2 a tank?

Kudos. You're exceptional. I've done both. Diesel was mislabeled and I filled my tank. Every time there is free charging when I stop, I plug in if I can. But 99% of the time I'm charging at work or home.

 

[zenmaster]

The problem started by not looking far enough forward. If you build free chargers, but people have to pay to charge at home, local people will always grab some free power when possible.

Since most charger use is intended for long-distance travel and such travel is planned, I like the idea of pre-reserving a stall during your arrival window to help ensure predictable availability.

 

[Sparky22]

So you are telling me that when you stop somewhere with free charging you don't take it, even if you don't need it?

Or if you are ICE, if a gas station is selling gas for $1 a gallon cheaper because of a mistake, you won't top off your tank even if you have 1/2 a tank?

Kudos. You're exceptional. I've done both. Diesel was mislabeled and I filled my tank. Every time there is free charging when I stop, I plug in if I can. But 99% of the time I'm charging at work or home.

Well that's you, my time is more valuable then driving for $3 of free charge, considering the lower rates of electricity at night and some places even free.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I think most naysayers will focus on the following.

1.) That demand will soften for the S as a result of the 3. This is critical because of the huge margins the S has.
2.) That the Model 3 is the wrong car for the moment. People want crossovers and not sedans.
3.) That the overall north American car market is softening.
4.) The negative margins on the 3 that's occurring during production ramp up.

Personally I think it's anyone's guess. I don't think it's debatable that Tesla is in a full on sprint. Where they're spending money like crazy, and their fighting on multiple fronts.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

......There are about 140,000 locations in the US to refuel your ICE. But that only takes 5-10 minutes. You would need 3-5 times that number to achieve parity for EVs.

This is exactly what the naysayers will exclaim, forgetting that there are 4.6 million households, 60% of which are single family houses, probably 100% of which have electricity capable of providing 40-50 miles of EV range every night, without so much as a 2nd thought. Sure, it won't work for everyone everywhere just yet, but let's worry about that after 4-5 million EVs are sold.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Well that's you, my time is more valuable then driving for $3 of free charge, considering the lower rates of electricity at night and some places even free.

I'm not sure why all this discussion of free charging is on a Model 3 thread when supercharging for the 3 is not free.

As to whether people charge to get a free charge it's highly debatable. I'm far too lazy to save a tiny amount of money to charge away from my home. But, in California they do have tons of people doing local charging. Now that could be that a Tesla is relatively inexpensive compared to a home in parts of California. So they get a Tesla before a house.

Anyways even if tons of people do charge locally it's a problem that will sort it self out. It's just a question of how bad it will get before businesses/condos/apartments/etc add charging.

 

[RDoc]

What concerns me are:

• Will the Model 3 be reliable. Tesla has had very real quality and design issues in the past, but with a high volume car, it could be a real mess.
• Will there be enough service centers. There aren't enough now for the existing cars and I don't see much of a ramp up yet.
• How badly will Tesla over promise and under deliver. Early adopters generally have a lot more patience and forgiveness than mass market buyers. Things like the AP software leap to mind.

 

[dhanson865]

This is actually a real issue because the tax credit rules were not thought out well enough. Other companies are going to ride the coattails of Tesla's success with their late starts and benefit from the competitive advantage that Tesla's no longer quality for tax credits while other manufacturers do.

Honestly, what I think they should have done is either have a total number of credits for the entire industry, or have manufacturers have to certify individual models for the tax credit (certification required to prevent abuse of intent), and then each certified model is eligible for X number of tax credits.

Remember the Toyota Prius vs Honda Insight?

One was a better car, more reliable, better gas mileage, more cargo room, better in every way. The other came in as an also ran, cheaper but worse in every way. People bought the more expensive car between the two.

The tax credit difference for Tesla vs the rest will be a factor, but quality, range, charging options, etc will be bigger factors (every thing other than price lumped up as one factor vs just price as the other).

The Prius isn't the car to beat anymore, Tesla makes the car to beat now.

 

[zenmaster]

• How badly will Tesla over promise and under deliver. Early adopters generally have a lot more patience and forgiveness than mass market buyers. Things like the AP software leap to mind.

Why would mass market buyers need patience and forgiveness for a feature that has no alternatives in the marketplace? I don't know about you, but when I need a new car, I comparison shop on features (as well as styling) for the price point. If Tesla can deliver a reliable car with more/better features than its competition, then it will do just fine.

 

[mrongey]

It has happened in the US. IIRC, Georgia dumped their EV program and sales tanked.

California just dumped their rebate 30 June 2017 (biggest single EV market $) so let's watch. It's not going to affect $70k+ cars as badly as $30k cars since it's only $2500 ($5000 for Hydrogen since Toyota purchased California's Legislature).

I didn't know California got rid of their incentive, and I don't know their reasoning behind it, but Utah decided not to extend theirs because it would be too expensive. Sales might tank initially after a rebate is phased out, but if there is enough of an upswing currently to make legislators think they would pay too much out, that's a good sign.

 

[Twiglett]

This is actually a real issue because the tax credit rules were not thought out well enough. Other companies are going to ride the coattails of Tesla's success with their late starts and benefit from the competitive advantage that Tesla's no longer quality for tax credits while other manufacturers do.

Honestly, what I think they should have done is either have a total number of credits for the entire industry, or have manufacturers have to certify individual models for the tax credit (certification required to prevent abuse of intent), and then each certified model is eligible for X number of tax credits.

Thing to remember with the tax credit when referencing Model 3 is that Tesla from the very beginning priced the Model 3 as $35K before tax credit.
Unlike the Bolt and most other EVs which were usually priced after credit.

 

[eloder]

A few points here:

EV sales tanked in Georgia because the incentives made for essentially free Nissan Leafs leases. Tesla sales weren't impacted much. Simultaneously, Georgia introduced a punitive measure that taxed EVs annually as much as an SUV driving 20k+ miles a year (gas tax equivalent).Similarly incentives in Denmark and Hong Kong were FAR above the incentives offered to US buyers., so the comparisons aren't a big deal.

Worry about local charging when EV penetration is 20 times what it is now. There's a long way to go until the local charging problem slows sales due to how many garages exist in the US. Non-free Supercharging on the Model 3 means the Superchargers won't be an issue.

Losing the $7500 tax credit doesn't suddenly mean masses of buyers will suddenly want to buy econo EVs on a leash. (They don't have much a market now). Other automakers also have this issue of supply--there is absolutely no way they have any way to source a mass-market, long-range EV at the level Tesla does for at least three years. Even if the tax credit sways buyers, buyers would then have to contend with huge waits for all non-Tesla automakers if the EV/ICE inflection point comes soon.

Consumers buying a Model 3 / S / X without a tax credit in two years will be buying a vastly superior vehicle, if the past two years of Tesla's history are any guide for the future.

 

[Visscher]

The lines of "people don't want EVs" and "having EVs is too significant of a lifestyle change for many"

Which is kinda grounded in some truth until its feasible to have batteries that can fast charge to full from dead in less than 10 minutes.

Until people get jealous of ev drivers and are willing to trade inconveniences. Imagine who would keep that one advantage because they didn't want to give up the ability to commit suicide on their auto exhaust and all the other disadvantages there are. I think the perception of society will change so much that this is no longer an argument that anyone cares about.

 

[cpa]

I do not see the fact that the federal tax credit on Teslas will be exhausted within 18-24 months to be more than a hiccup, if even that.

Tesla started its manufacturing from scratch, and only manufactures BEVs.

Every other manufacturer has been around for decades, and some a century or more. Those manufacturers sell many more units of all types of vehicles per year. You can correct me, but I believe that every manufacturer except perhaps Chrysler [does Fiat count against Chrysler?] and Subaru has sold some sort of BEV in the past several years. So, those manufacturers have already eaten into their 200,000 allotment.

When they do decide to ramp up production of BEVs, it is likely that those traditional manufacturers will quickly surpass the 200,000 threshold, and once again the playing field will be equal.

It is also quite possible that the domestic manufacturers will be selling many vehicles to local and state governments for their fleets, and I do not recall any wording in the Code that exclude governmental sales from the 200,000 sales figure for the Section 30D federal tax credit. You can bet that the traditional manufacturers would rather sell dozens of cars to the City of X at the expense of shorting individuals and businesses out of $7,500.

 

[McRat]

Remember the Toyota Prius vs Honda Insight?

One was a better car, more reliable, better gas mileage, more cargo room, better in every way. The other came in as an also ran, cheaper but worse in every way. People bought the more expensive car between the two.

The tax credit difference for Tesla vs the rest will be a factor, but quality, range, charging options, etc will be bigger factors (every thing other than price lumped up as one factor vs just price as the other).

The Prius isn't the car to beat anymore, Tesla makes the car to beat now.

Not to poke fun at you, but do have any idea what a Prius or Insight are, or what happened on planet earth in 2000?

A 2001 Prius was a 4 door steel hybrid with 41 mpg highway, using a low tech engine and a hybrid system.
A 2000 Insight was a 2 door aluminum, magnesium, and composite 2 seater with a highly advanced engine and hybrid system that was 61 mpg EPA hwy. For those without calculators, that's 49 percent better economy. In real life the difference was even greater with many Insight owners reporting 70 mpg+ including Motor Trend. Car & Driver could only get 35 mpg out of the 2001 Prius. High Tech vs. Cheap Hybrid. The Insight was even rated as the safer of the two cars as well.

Compare Side-by-Side

To really kick sand in Toyota's face, the Insight took 2.5 seconds less to reach 60 mph, and C&D hypermiled an Insight to... "Our trip mileage? We squeezed 121.7 mpg out of the tiny hybrid at an average speed of 58 mph."

The best car doesn't always win. The most profitable car does.

 

[eloder]

I thought the OP's quote was from a statement Tesla made in April 2013.

Not to poke fun at you, but do have any idea what a Prius or Insight are, or what happened on planet earth in 2000?

A 2001 Prius was a 4 door steel hybrid with 41 mpg highway, using a low tech engine and a hybrid system.
A 2000 Insight was a 2 door aluminum, magnesium, and composite 2 seater with a highly advanced engine and hybrid system that was 61 mpg EPA hwy. For those without calculators, that's 49 percent better economy. In real life the difference was even greater with many Insight owners reporting 70 mpg+ including Motor Trend. Car & Driver could only get 35 mpg out of the 2001 Prius. High Tech vs. Cheap Hybrid. The Insight was even rated as the safer of the two cars as well.

Compare Side-by-Side

To really kick sand in Toyota's face, the Insight took 2.5 seconds less to reach 60 mph, and C&D hypermiled an Insight to... "Our trip mileage? We squeezed 121.7 mpg out of the tiny hybrid at an average speed of 58 mph."

The best car doesn't always win. The most profitable car does.

Tesla has incredible brand power compared to most other automakers, especially compared to the ones that are putting forth the most effort in the EV space (GM and Nissan).

The issue you're referencing will benefit Tesla and harm other automakers unless there's some serious sentiment changes in the next few years.

 

[dhanson865]

Not to poke fun at you, but do have any idea what a Prius or Insight are, or what happened on planet earth in 2000?

A 2001 Prius was ...
A 2000 Insight was ...

Wrong Prius and Wrong Insight. Both of the ones you mentioned were compromises of effeciency vs utiltiy. Neither got it all done.

Spoiler: old prius vs old insight, neither got the job done spoiler

The 2000 Insight wasn't a 5 door hatch, it had less horsepower, less seating room, less cargo room.

The 2001 Prius wasn't a hatchback, didn't seat as many comfortably or carry as much cargo, didn't have as good MPG, wasn't as reliable. I'm not saying it was the standard to beat because it wasn't.

Check out the 2005-2009 Prius (which was the standard to beat before EVs) and the wannabee Prius version of the Insight that came after. If you want compare the same year Prius to the same year Insight (2010 vs 2010) but keep the 2005-2009 Prius as a third column/row depending on how you do the table.

The Insight had failed twice before EVs took away the limelight from the Prius as the standard to beat.