So the Model 3 is real, and in prod: what will the naysayers shift to now?

[alehbaba]

This might be an unpopular opinion here, but once the 3 scales, I don't think Tesla needs to worry about S sales. That's not to say they don't need the S--the idea that one of the fastest production cars in existence is electric is a huge feather in their cap, and is easily still the most inspirational EV in existence. But car companies like Chevy aren't going to fret too much about corvette sales--the main purpose of the corvette is brand identity, not margins. Just like if you ogle a corvette but settle on a more practical Chevy instead, Tesla will be more than happy to have its flagship S lag in sales if its very existence leads people to buy a 3.

we will see.I get what you mean but the s and 3 appear so close in size and other ways that its a no brainer to buy the 3 over the s even if you are rich ... The corvette is a way diff car for chevy then the neon or even camero...not the same comparison.....you would have to use the roadster when it comes out for tesla then(new roadster) which will likely be a 200k car.

 

[Runt8]

we will see.I get what you mean but the s and 3 appear so close in size and other ways that its a no brainer to buy the 3 over the s even if you are rich ... The corvette is a way diff car for chevy then the neon or even camero...not the same comparison.....you would have to use the roadster when it comes out for tesla then(new roadster) which will likely be a 200k car.

I'm betting Tesla is going to aggressively start to differentiate the S in terms of high end features.

 

[internalaudit]

For some people, they want to be more exclusive. That alone will drive them to buying the next gen S instead of the 3.

Look at some affluent people buying wrist watches. Some of these time pieces cost more than a Model 3 and most of us really don't need a $10-100k wristwatch to tell time.

Same way some people will be die hard Bentley, RR, Maserati, Lambo, Ferrari etc. fans. When money is no object, they will not buy stuff because they are practical. They will buy the latest and greatest because they're cool and it shows everyone they have arrived.

Actually the richest people will not have to flaunt so much of their wealth because people already know they are.

Nothing against the affluent (most earned them the ethical way) but usually they are more brand or label conscious and who wouldn't be if another $100k is no object?

 

[alehbaba]

You read wrong. In fact, actual magazine reviewers often comment exactly the opposite, that the rear seating is taxi sized.
My 6'1" self has more room sitting in the rear seat of the Bolt than the Model S.

Not that the Model S lacks rear seating, it's just that the Bolt has a touch more headroom, and good amount of extra leg room. Either one is acceptable. Neither is as large as a normal large luxury sedan in the back, or a full sized SUV.

I suppose a Model 3 could be larger than the Model S in the back, we will have to wait and see.

another dent in model s sales if the 3 has more headroom in the rear then the s for many people. Many will sit in all 3 models in the showroom 1st before any testdrives and make up part of their mind there.Then when the price is factored that will add another layer and maybe even seal the deal for them.The test drive will likely be a clincher as far as seeing the tech in action but people now can go test drive the x and s and i bet think its cool and like the concept and direct drive feel but squirm at the pricepoint.The model 3 is for those squirmers to entice them to the finish line. So many will think and wonder>> why would i pay 2+x more for the s when its the same tech inside and almost the same size and (maybe) better rear headroom for passengers in the 3?????...boom....3 will outsell the s in a huge way

 

[alehbaba]

I'm betting Tesla is going to aggressively start to differentiate the S in terms of high end features.

and price point...the s is overpriced now and once the 3 is out buyers will be even more aware of the overpriced model s. I hope by the time the s gets revamped that the lucid and porche models will come to market.

 

[alehbaba]

For some people, they want to be more exclusive. That alone will drive them to buying the next gen S instead of the 3.

Look at some affluent people buying wrist watches. Some of these time pieces cost more than a Model 3 and most of us really don't need a $10-100k wristwatch to tell time.

Same way some people will be die hard Bentley, RR, Maserati, Lambo, Ferrari etc. fans. When money is no object, they will not buy stuff because they are practical. They will buy the latest and greatest because they're cool and it shows everyone they have arrived.

Actually the richest people will not have to flaunt so much of their wealth because people already know they are.

Nothing against the affluent (most earned them the ethical way) but usually they are more brand or label conscious and who wouldn't be if another $100k is no object?

haha....who notices a guys watch really????? Not even the same thing really? When i see a guy with a 40k watch i just think he is an idiot and shallow. I could care less if he is rich or in debt to have the watch.I just think he is a fool.Like rappers with thick gold chains and such.
Sure all the luxury products will have a market. Jay leno buys many outrageous cars as do other wealthy people i bet. There is a bently/ferrari dealer here and its always dead but some footbal and baseball guys buy them as well as corporate rich ceo types. I never see any on the road.NEVER HERE. I have seen 2 audi r8's...some spoiled kid drives one(yea his parents bought it for him-its known because its so rare) and another is driven by some older ceo guy in cherry creek which is a hoti todi area of town. I may have seen 1 older bentley in 20 yrs here and an asian guy in the burbs here drives and older diablo(orange) around sometimes but i havent seen it in 2 yrs so who knows.

 

[internalaudit]

haha....who notices a guys watch really????? Not even the same thing really? When i see a guy with a 40k watch i just think he is an idiot and shallow. I could care less if he is rich or in debt to have the watch.I just think he is a fool.Like rappers with thick gold chains and such.
Sure all the luxury products will have a market. Jay leno buys many outrageous cars as do other wealthy people i bet. There is a bently/ferrari dealer here and its always dead but some footbal and baseball guys buy them as well as corporate rich ceo types. I never see any on the road.NEVER HERE. I have seen 2 audi r8's...some spoiled kid drives one(yea his parents bought it for him-its known because its so rare) and another is driven by some older ceo guy in cherry creek which is a hoti todi area of town. I may have seen 1 older bentley in 20 yrs here and an asian guy in the burbs here drives and older diablo(orange) around sometimes but i havent seen it in 2 yrs so who knows.

I wouldn't think of someone wearing an expensive wrist watch as stupid or shallow. They wouldn't have been able to afford one if they were that stupid anyway and it's probably chicken feed what cost them to buy the watch compared to their net worth. It's their money and I have no right to tell how they'd like to spend it.

I would guess that for at least 1/3 of Model S buyers, they wanted the latest tech toy and an EV does drive much better than most ICE vehicles, even performance ones. When the German car makers make stride, the same buyers may go back to their favorite brand.

 

[Waiting4M3]

California has not dropped their EV rebate, rather they have proposed plans to double down on it down on it.

Moving rebates to those under 300% of federal poverty rate is not dropping the incentives, rather it is expanding the distribution of the program's funds the the general population, which will do much more for EV adoption by encouraging the production of EV's in their price range. California is all-in for EV's.

California may adopt bigger incentives for electric cars

Going forward California is putting $3B towards EV incentive, and $500M of those are allocated to low-income applicant.

The proposal also continues an existing program that dedicates $500 million annually to promote low or zero-emission vehicles in poor communities.The funds provide incentives to switch transit vehicles from diesel to electric or hybrid, and also help low and moderate income Californians purchase used, low emission cars.

According to this, the temporary measure to only issue rebates to low-income applicants is because

FY 2016-17 funding will be exhausted before FY 2017-18 funds will be appropriated and allocated to the project.

and

CVRP reserved $8 million for qualified lower-income applicants, thereby prioritizing payments to low- and moderate-income applicants in accordance with program requirements.

The current cap is:
November 1 2016 – Present

• $150,000 for single filers
• $204,000 for head-of-household filers
• $300,000 for joint filers

If you file an application now

You were placed on a rebate waitlist when you applied online

Once the 2017-2018 appropriation is allocated, all applicants will get the rebates.

 

[AlanSqB]

I think that the next "backlash" will come from the lease/finance process. Many people are only used to the way it works at the Ford/Chevy/Nissan/etc dealer and may be put off when they don't get mfr subsidied, 0.9% financing that is all handily taken care of for them by the "friendly" finance manager. Current lending/leasing for Tesla is significantly more complicated and expensive to the consumer so those who are unaware of that fact may walk away disappointed. As usual, some of them will be noisy about it.

 

[McRat]

...
If you file an application now Once the 2017-2018 appropriation is allocated, all applicants will get the rebates.

California's government is not exactly famous for keeping their word to the citizens.

We will see. I hope it's not cut for good, but you cannot predict what Sacramento will do.

As far as the Low-Income program, the table is based on # of dependents and household income. It's <$73,800k for a family of 4.

Do not confuse this with High Income caps. That's different. In fact, low income is eligible for higher rebates than normal income. High income gets no rebates.

$8 million won't go far at $3500 to $7000 a pop (low income rebate range). About 2,000 cars max in a state of nearly 40,000,000 people.

PS @Waiting4M3 - RTFM about the rebates, don't guess. You are just going to piss off folk by posting crap that isn't true.

 

[internalaudit]

I think that the next "backlash" will come from the lease/finance process. Many people are only used to the way it works at the Ford/Chevy/Nissan/etc dealer and may be put off when they don't get mfr subsidied, 0.9% financing that is all handily taken care of for them by the "friendly" finance manager. Current lending/leasing for Tesla is significantly more complicated and expensive to the consumer so those who are unaware of that fact may walk away disappointed. As usual, some of them will be noisy about it.

Won't the rates be similar to what is offered to S and X buyers, which is quite transparent when logged into MyTesla?

Here in Canada, I think it's 2.4% financing whether 4, 5, 6, 7 or 8 years.

 

[deonb]

Which is kinda grounded in some truth until its feasible to have batteries that can fast charge to full from dead in less than 10 minutes.

A cellphone can't charge from dead to full in less than 10 minutes, yet it doesn't prevent almost everyone on the planet from owning one.

 

[AceSkywalker]

A cellphone can't charge from dead to full in less than 10 minutes, yet it doesn't prevent almost everyone on the planet from owning one.

Apples and oranges. Most people who own a phone can survive a day or two without their cellphone (shocker). Most people who own and use a car cannot survive a day or two without their car, especially in places where public transportation is a joke/nonexistant.

 

[Waiting4M3]

California's government is not exactly famous for keeping their word to the citizens.

We will see. I hope it's not cut for good, but you cannot predict what Sacramento will do.

As far as the Low-Income program, the table is based on # of dependents and household income. It's <$73,800k for a family of 4.

Do not confuse this with High Income caps. That's different. In fact, low income is eligible for higher rebates than normal income. High income gets no rebates.

$8 million won't go far at $3500 to $7000 a pop (low income rebate range). About 2,000 cars max in a state of nearly 40,000,000 people.

PS @Waiting4M3 - RTFM about the rebates, don't guess. You are just going to piss off folk by posting crap that isn't true.

I was trying to keep my post brief, I basically tried to summarize what's on the web site which you originally linked to:

If you applied for a standard rebate on June 30, 2017 or later:
You were placed on a rebate waitlist when you applied online. Payment to applicants on the rebate waitlist will depend on the project receiving more funding from the State of California. If funding becomes available, your rebate will be paid if you meet all requirements and submit correct supporting documents within the given time frame. All status updates will be communicated through email. Once your application is approved, please check our website homepage for the latest funding updates.

The overall point I want to make is that CA EV rebate is likely being significantly expanded, under proposal Ab1184, to $3B, instead of being stopped or reduced as you mentioned upthread

 

[Zero CO2]

Based on my recent Model S purchase experience ....Tesla is going to have to overcome their poor sales/delivery experience....now they are going to have real scale with the M3 .....looks to me like it could be chaos unless they make big changes.... the early adopters will put up with a lot of non-sense because they want an EV that bad(placed order for M3 over a year ago.....) ....i am not sure that mass market (price sensitive and still willing to purchase an ICE buyers) will be as forgiving ...Tesla has some time to take corrective action before the M3 onslaught in 2018 ....but not that much......and consistent multiple quarters of profitability at some point would also help ....the company is almost 15 years old (i.e. not a start up ) the time has come to deliver .... this should be an interesting next 6 months for both long TSLA shareholders and M3 reservation holders......buckle up

 

[electracity]

Tesla is actually in pre-production. Making 50 or 150 cars per month is not production.

They are trying to compress a typical six months of pre production into two months. They have probably spent hundreds of millions extra rushing the model 3 towards manufaturing. By the end of the year we should get an idea of how well that worked.

When the model 3 is owned by civilians then Tesla has released the car.

 

[electracity]

Wrong Prius and Wrong Insight. Both of the ones you mentioned were compromises of effeciency vs utiltiy. Neither got it all done.

Spoiler: old prius vs old insight, neither got the job done spoiler

The 2000 Insight wasn't a 5 door hatch, it had less horsepower, less seating room, less cargo room.

The 2001 Prius wasn't a hatchback, didn't seat as many comfortably or carry as much cargo, didn't have as good MPG, wasn't as reliable. I'm not saying it was the standard to beat because it wasn't.

Check out the 2005-2009 Prius (which was the standard to beat before EVs) and the wannabee Prius version of the Insight that came after. If you want compare the same year Prius to the same year Insight (2010 vs 2010) but keep the 2005-2009 Prius as a third column/row depending on how you do the table.

The Insight had failed twice before EVs took away the limelight from the Prius as the standard to beat.

Part of the Prius' appeal was novelty. This is part of demand driver for Tesla.

Many people don't seek novelty in expensive items.

 

[Stolz25]

I think that the next "backlash" will come from the lease/finance process. Many people are only used to the way it works at the Ford/Chevy/Nissan/etc dealer and may be put off when they don't get mfr subsidied, 0.9% financing that is all handily taken care of for them by the "friendly" finance manager. Current lending/leasing for Tesla is significantly more complicated and expensive to the consumer so those who are unaware of that fact may walk away disappointed. As usual, some of them will be noisy about it.

Just pay cash.

 

[dhanson865]

Part of the Prius' appeal was novelty. This is part of demand driver for Tesla.

Many people don't seek novelty in expensive items.

I can buy 5-10 pieces of 10' 1/4" or 1/2" schedule 40 PVC put one end in the passenger foot well, and the other end stays inside the hatch on the drivers side with the hatch closed in my 2005 Prius (all doors closed and latched, all windows closed, you can even have a passenger in the front seat).

99% of the cars the naysayers compare it to couldn't do that.

A Tesla Model S can do it. My Nissan Leaf can't

I can load 3 times as many bags of mulch in the cargo area of the Prius as I do the Leaf. I'm thinking I'll be less likely to put mulch in the back of my first Tesla.

To me the 2004-2009 Prius was Reliability, Efficiency, Utility. Nothing in there about novelty. Real world practical use.

I hope the Model 3 will do for a run like that by doing the fold down rear seat into the trunk method but if not I'll have to keep an old gasser around that can or buy a CPO Model S. It's not my biggest concern. Worst case I have to borrow or rent a vehicle someday. Maybe I can get a self driving Tesla Model S or X or Y to pick me up and go to Lowes by then.

I have no clue what sort of novelty you think a hybrid or EV holds. It's just a car. I just want it to get me from A to B without breaking down and with some advantage in either initial cost and/or cost per mile after purchase. Once I'm past that I'll take range over other features (range is the best feature), then features over acceleration (the slowest Model S would still be the fastest car I've ever owned).

 

[McRat]

I can buy 5-10 pieces of 10' 1/4" or 1/2" schedule 40 PVC put one end in the passenger foot well, and the other end stays inside the hatch on the drivers side with the hatch closed in my 2005 Prius (all doors closed and latched, all windows closed, you can even have a passenger in the front seat).

99% of the cars the naysayers compare it to couldn't do that.

A Tesla Model S can do it. My Nissan Leaf can't

To me the 2004-2009 Prius was Reliability, Efficiency, Utility. Nothing in there about novelty. Real world practical use.

I hope the Model 3 will do for a run like that by doing the fold down rear seat into the trunk method but if not I'll have to keep an old gasser around that can or buy a CPO Model S. It's not my biggest concern. Worst case I have to borrow or rent a vehicle someday. Maybe I can get a self driving Tesla Model S or X or Y to pick me up and go to Lowes by then.

I have no clue what sort of novelty you think a hybrid or EV holds. It's just a car. I just want it to get me from A to B without breaking down and with some advantage in either initial cost and/or cost per mile after purchase. Once I'm past that I'll take range over other features (range is the best feature), then features over acceleration (the slowest Model S would still be the fastest car I've ever owned).