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So who actually has configured their P or AWD?

favo

P3D+ owner
Apr 5, 2012
1,039
1,132
Durham, NC
I'm 14 minutes behind you. Hopefully I can configure soon!

Just noticed you got the invite 5 days ago! Argh! :mad:
It appears they are going from East to West for whatever reason. I guess there will be another batch tomorrow or Thursday, so keep your F5 finger limbered up.
 

Trips

"Boring bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"
Sep 22, 2015
1,214
1,402
Omaha, NE
It appears they are going from East to West for whatever reason. I guess there will be another batch tomorrow or Thursday, so keep your F5 finger limbered up.

A guy at the shareholder meeting was telling the sad story about having a 2012 Model S and day 1 reservation with no P/AWD invite. Elon said that it should be coming this week (Don't quote me but it was really soon). It sounded like all day 1 reservation holders should be able to order the P or AWD by the end of next week. It was an older guy about the 3rd from last question.
 
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Mayhem

Professional F5 Presser
Apr 27, 2018
180
143
USA
@favo what did your AWD/P email invite to configure look like? Can you screenshot it? Just want to see how/if it differs from the 1st prod invite. Did you initially indicate "Wait for AWD" as your reason for deferring on the 1st prod design studio?
 

lairdb

Member
Mar 26, 2018
334
300
California
1. Buy with the 20s
2. Buy the 18s from someone trying to get rid of them
3. Sell the 20s
4. Profit!

That's my plan, combined with:

Pretty sure I'd prefer the 18" Aero wheels wrapped in Pilot Sport 4S tires--best of both worlds.


As I recall from the product listing on Tesla's site, a rear suspension part gets changed with the installation of the 20" wheels... so, that could complicate your plan.

It's been suggested that it's just a change to the upper link, resulting in a little bit of negative camber. Likely an efficiency loss, but a handling benefit, not a handling problem. (I am not a suspension designer. YMMV. Etc. (Input of a suspension designer would be interesting.))

It seems unlikely, but I've also seen it suggested that the P rear 20s are actually wider -- that would be a whole 'nother thing.
 
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Trips

"Boring bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"
Sep 22, 2015
1,214
1,402
Omaha, NE
@favo what did your AWD/P email invite to configure look like? Can you screenshot it? Just want to see how/if it differs from the 1st prod invite. Did you initially indicate "Wait for AWD" as your reason for deferring on the 1st prod design studio?

I did not select the "Wait for AWD" Here is what the emails look like. The subject will be "Introducing New Model 3 Options"

Invites.png
 

srharris22

Member
Oct 8, 2017
199
88
Raleigh
It appears they are going from East to West for whatever reason. I guess there will be another batch tomorrow or Thursday, so keep your F5 finger limbered up.
They are going based on time of reservation, with maybe a little tweaking. Appears they have gotten up through 1PM Eastern and 10AM pacific time. The Cali stores opened at 9:30AM their time is what I’ve heard, while east coast was 10AM as usual.
Last weeks invites were a small time frame, but considering most orders came when doors opened I bet. Hopefully the next round expands out by a few hours, and we get to online invites by end of June! Cause that’s when I put mine in ;)

But like above this post, some have claimed that all day 1 will get invite soon, I doubt this, but we will see.
 

MorrisonHiker

S 100D 2021.4.15
Mar 8, 2015
9,438
8,596
Colorado
They are going based on time of reservation, with maybe a little tweaking. Appears they have gotten up through 1PM Eastern and 10AM pacific time. The Cali stores opened at 9:30AM their time is what I’ve heard, while east coast was 10AM as usual.
Last weeks invites were a small time frame, but considering most orders came when doors opened I bet. Hopefully the next round expands out by a few hours, and we get to online invites by end of June! Cause that’s when I put mine in ;)

But like above this post, some have claimed that all day 1 will get invite soon, I doubt this, but we will see.
Argh. I knew that and explained it to others last week...but somehow totally forgot about it when I saw a time close to mine. :oops: Doh!

I'm still at least "two hours" away from being able to configure.
 
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commasign

TeslaAdviceBlog.com
Aug 31, 2013
3,202
4,175
Davis, CA
It seems unlikely, but I've also seen it suggested that the P rear 20s are actually wider -- that would be a whole 'nother thing.

Unfortunately (or fortunately for those that want to rotate their tires) not. Specs for the 20” wheels are already detailed on Model 3 owners manual and on the Tesla online store. 235s all around.

Yes, I guess they could introduce a staggered variant just for the P, but seriously doubt it as it goes against all the simplification efforts for Model 3. Would make no sense to introduce staggered wheels just for the P yet use the same motor and inverter as the regular AWD.
 
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Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
all day 1 will get invite soon, I doubt this, but we will see.
How else Elon would be able to tell the guy he'll get invite soon w/o knowing his reservation time? Assuming wait time will be as current, 12-16 weeks or 3-4mo...
He actually said that new orders for "current configuration" will have 3-4 months wait, which is even more suspucious. That means all in line still un-invited will be fullfilled within that timeframe...
 

commasign

TeslaAdviceBlog.com
Aug 31, 2013
3,202
4,175
Davis, CA
How else Elon would be able to tell the guy he'll get invite soon w/o knowing his reservation time? Assuming wait time will be as current, 12-16 weeks or 3-4mo...
He actually said that new orders for "current configuration" will have 3-4 months wait, which is even more suspucious. That means all in line still un-invited will be fullfilled within that timeframe...

That's actually really interesting. Factoring in some Elon time dilation, 3-4 months x 20,000 cars/months... So Tesla is thinking that ~100k out of the 400k+ remaining current reservations and new reservations will buy LR + PUP or a higher configuration. The other 300k+ current and new reservations want the SR battery.
 

Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
That's actually really interesting. Factoring in some Elon time dilation, 3-4 months x 20,000 cars/months... So Tesla is thinking that ~100k out of the 400k+ remaining current reservations and new reservations will buy LR + PUP or a higher configuration. The other 300k+ current and new reservations want the SR battery.
I believe he was talking U.S. (+Canada)only, since other parts of the world will need to wait until 2019, which is more than 3-4mo, so we're talking about 50% of 450K orders or 225K, out of which only ~25k (Canada excluded) have been filled.
So, 200k outstanding. Maybe AWD+P will be skewed towards EOY, which gives more immediate priority to FP. Assuming they can make ~130k before EOY, maybe FP can happen in 3-4 months. And SRs won't come up until 2019, wondering if thats more than 30%...
 
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favo

P3D+ owner
Apr 5, 2012
1,039
1,132
Durham, NC
@favo what did your AWD/P email invite to configure look like? Can you screenshot it? Just want to see how/if it differs from the 1st prod invite. Did you initially indicate "Wait for AWD" as your reason for deferring on the 1st prod design studio?
I did initially indicate Wait for AWD. Here's the email. Edit: Trips beat me to it, but looks like the subject changed a bit.

upload_2018-6-6_15-14-20.png
 

favo

P3D+ owner
Apr 5, 2012
1,039
1,132
Durham, NC
Maybe AWD+P will be skewed towards EOY, which gives more immediate priority to FP. Assuming they can make ~130k before EOY, maybe FP can happen in 3-4 months. And SRs won't come up until 2019, wondering if thats more than 30%...

Sounds like they are going to prioritize P, then D, then SR, which makes sense from a profit point of view. Elon really wants Tesla to be profitable in Q3 and Q4 to stick it to the shorts. I wouldn't get in his way.

It also occurs to me that this lines up with having the P and D orders move East to West. They can have deliveries follow the same pattern. I'm thinking initial production of P/D will be slow and dedicated to test drive cars as they ramp up. Then maybe by (mid to late?) July they will start making customer cars and ship to the East Coast, working their way West (and maybe Canada) through August and September, leaving California for last, since they have the shortest delivery time. Once again, this maximizes deliveries and profits.

upload_2018-6-6_15-26-39.png


upload_2018-6-6_15-35-47.png
 

Trips

"Boring bonehead questions are not cool. Next?"
Sep 22, 2015
1,214
1,402
Omaha, NE
I found a version of the transcript but the voice to text was terrible so I tried to clean it up. This is 99% accurate to what was said.

Question: My name is Bense Gerber. I'm hooked into Tesla multiple ways. Obviously I'm a stockholder. I have a solar panel on my roof and I also have a model 3 reservation from March 31st of 2016 Ready for configuring but I would really really really like to have an AWD. Can you give an order of magnitude to guess how long I'd have to wait for that?

Elon: Oh you should receive configuration email within the next week or so. Yeah we start, we start production with AWD. We're actually taking the same approach on AWD this month and we expect to scale it up in July and August and be in high volume production of AWD by September for sure.
 
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Moderatefan

Member
Dec 20, 2017
902
841
Denver, CO
Sounds like they are going to prioritize P, then D, then SR, which makes sense from a profit point of view. Elon really wants Tesla to be profitable in Q3 and Q4 to stick it to the shorts. I wouldn't get in his way.
I really don't think shorts are his priority, but profitability should be. He doesn't need P/AWD for profitability right now, production rate over 2.5k will do per his words, but of course he needs to start expanding to new configurations.
My feel is that 2/3 of the capacity will be dedicated to FP for the next 4mo and 1/3 to P, then AWD.
That way he'll be able to fill FP reservations in 3-4 months, then switch most of that capacity to AWD, then SRs.
I think Ps should not be very many, per spreadsheet S/X owners are 7% of 3 reservations, so that is probably close to the number of people willing to part w/ $80k. That's ~15k orders, or 1.5 months of production at 1/3 of capacity.
 

favo

P3D+ owner
Apr 5, 2012
1,039
1,132
Durham, NC
I really don't think shorts are his priority, but profitability should be.

Sure, profitability is the main goal, but pulling the shorts down is a bonus. :D I basically agree with the rest of your post. Since they are going to be making P's for test drives very soon, it would be odd if they then waited a while to send them to paying customers. Clearly they will have plenty of production capacity to make the P and the LR at the same time (mostly LR, as you say). Then adding in the AWD just in time for winter in Canada. :eek: SR might not start until well in to Q4.
 

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