Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[Julian Cox]

I am in stock and 2016 leaps. It is a luxury to shrug and remind myself I can just wait it out. I have ( so far) resisted the temptation to buy short term calls; picking a bottom. We are just in a new phase where it won't be all up all the time. I am not concerned about the medium or long term share price. I will still play predictable moves but there hasn't been one in a while.

Not sure it is an excessively good idea to lose heart, most especially for those with stock and leaps.

We got a great run-up on the road show for the gigafactory bond offering and a huge short squeeze. So that was nice.

Now we have Tesla in a negotiations phase - basically taking a tour of states that object to direct sales and dangling $5 bn in their faces - which seems to be working in Arizona and now Texas too. Ohio - now that was an interesting victory by the looks of it despite GM's direct intervention.

There is also the scheduled partner negotiations on the gigafactory which Panasonic seems happy to game in public - thanx for that.

Musk is no doubt heavily into SpaceX for this reusable vehicle launch and frankly speaking he's done what he needed to do in a PR role to bring the money into Tesla on excellent terms.

Now that the money is in Tesla I suspect that the low Q1 guidance does not stand. By the looks of it vehicles are flooding off the boats in Norway at a silly pace and possibly elsewhere in Europe too. This looks a bit like timing to me. Given the frantic delivery activity so close to the last days of the quarter I would well imagine that these are numbers that are not included in conservative guidance.

I would assume that the recent slide has mostly to do with concern over a modest forthcoming quarterly earnings report (as guided) and uncertainly setting in regards the gigafactory in the absence of updates. What is actually happening I suspect is stunning progress on the factory and the deliveries.

News hiatus followed by useful update from Musk after month end would be on the cards IMO.

JC

 

[Bgarret]

I don't mean to be Bluto in Animal House, but does anyone remember when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor! When the going gets tough.....well at $200+/share the going is not that tough. Remember $40 - $56... 56 - $90...$90 - 105, back to $92. $92 - $129 back to (thank you GS) $107...to $162 and change for the convertibles, to $184 for the warrants, to $192....for the heat back to $118 ...to $140...160...200..(back to 192) to 212...245...265!:love:...back to 207...

And yet Tesla is delivering over 1000 cars to Norway this Month. (From Singles - we're huge in Belgium!). It is, like the fits and starts of its stock price, changing the world! And we through our YouTube videos, analysis of ZEV credits, production rates and arguments over P85 or P85+ get to be part of it.

I doubled down with Leaps at 120 (post 194) and I doubled down again with May calls today. It may be hopium, but don't discount Elon et al and the power of a paradigm shift. ZEV is not dead and yet roughly 3 quarters of no ZEV earnings (or 3/4 of $160 million in revenue from last year.). Was it April 1 of last year that Tesla announced positive Q1 earnings both GAAP and non-GAAP and Luv2b came out with a most excellent analysis....and I bought my first option contract...TSLA June 22 @ 65...that I bought for about 1$ and sold for $21.5. This is the 3rd inning, and TSLA is just getting warm.

 

[Johan]

Good news today NHTSA and Titanium underbody.

By the way did you hear the rumor about Model T coming out just after Gen III?

 

[InTheShadows]

Crap, the market found out about it.

 

[Muskol]

I picked up 220 and 230 weeklies yesterday as a crapshoot in hopes of something a la NHTSA. Hope it wasn't all priced in!

 

[sleepyhead]

TSLA going to $220 today, since that is max pain.

Just my opinion. I have been wrong about TSLA a lot in the last two weeks though...

 

[The Blue Owl]

Well, it still has got today and Monday to go to $280, to vindicate my vote in the poll

 

[Julian Cox]

Well, it still has got today and Monday to go to $280, to vindicate my vote in the poll

Well the government just officially called BS on the only bear case that ever had investors worried.

I think many have become desensitised to just how much risk they were carrying in the form of an NHTSA recall proving the bears right, but they were not right, they were wrong.

I suspect that there is $40 of relief in this news. $70 would be weird but cool. I expect interviews with Musk today will be a sight to behold for anyone looking for a reason to look at the upper end of the scale. This is against a background of GM and Toyota getting criminal fines for poor handling of lethal recall issues.

Also by way of background: NJ backing down on banning Tesla - Ohio approved over GM's rotting corpse, possibly Texas, probably Arizona.

I actually think it has become politically dangerous to ban Tesla direct sales.

If Musk is feeling sufficiently ebullient to provide some hint of reassurance on gigafactory progress then that $280 is lofty from here but not entirely impossible. I cannot see any good reason for the stock decline of late except for the natural tail off of the last short squeeze.

All good, happy hunting.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I actually think it has become politically dangerous to ban Tesla direct sales.

That should have been clear to the dealers a long time ago. Campaign contributions go a long way, but in the end the votes come from... the voters. And those voters universally love the car and hate the dealers.

The only dampening on the stock right now is the uncertainty surrounding the Gigafactory. I think that the stock will only move significantly if there is some decisive announcement detailing who, where, when, and how much.

 

[InTheShadows]

Now we are starting to move up.

 

[The Blue Owl]

What I'd really like to see is a video with the underside of any ICE car taking that kind of damage, played side-by-side with the ones posted by Elon.

 

[772]

What I'd really like to see is a video with the underside of any ICE car taking that kind of damage, played side-by-side with the ones posted by Elon.

I think this would be a great promotional video for EVs :biggrin:

 

[vgrinshpun]

What I'd really like to see is a video with the underside of any ICE car taking that kind of damage, played side-by-side with the ones posted by Elon.

I am afraid you are asking for an impossible video. The ICE car in similar circumstances will be taking damage to underside, inside, and outside (roof)

 

[mitch672]

I am afraid you are asking for an impossible video. The ICE car in similar circumstances will be taking damage to underside, inside, and outside (roof)

The issue would be, who would want to be the driver of your average ICE car for those tests?
I think mythbusters would need to be involved to make a remote controlled car, for the tests, since no one's going to volunteer for driving the ICE car...

 

[The Blue Owl]

I am afraid you are asking for an impossible video. The ICE car in similar circumstances will be taking damage to underside, inside, and outside (roof)

Yeah, it would have to be a driverless car.

I know, I know: NHTSA should complement their existing testing to include such events! I can already hear the howls from the existing manufacturers if NHTSA did that.

Come to think of it, I wonder if Tesla used a human driver to perform those tests? The videos show a real road surface, so it wasn't on a treadmill.

- - - Updated - - -

Random tweet from the last minute:

It's starting to sink in.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Yeah, it would have to be a driverless car.

I know, I know: NHTSA should complement their existing testing to include such events! I can already hear the howls from the existing manufacturers if NHTSA did that.

Come to think of it, I wonder if Tesla used a human driver to perform those tests? The videos show a real road surface, so it wasn't on a treadmill.

Maybe we will see a tweet from Elon: 152 vehicle level tests for underbody shielding were performed using our test fleet of driverless cars :tongue:

 

[justdoit]

Tweet from Kass
"'60 Minutes' will be doing a spot on TSLA and Elon Musk Sunday evening"
Twitter / DougKass: will be doing ...

Is it a hint to shorts to cover? haha.

I'm actually not too sure what to think of how 60 Minutes will cover Tesla. They recently did a Clean Energy piece at it was really bad.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Tweet from Kass
"'60 Minutes' will be doing a spot on TSLA and Elon Musk Sunday evening"
Twitter / DougKass: will be doing ...

Is it a hint to shorts to cover? haha.

I'm actually not too sure what to think of how 60 Minutes will cover Tesla. They recently did a Clean Energy piece at it was really bad.

"The flamboyant billionaire......fires......government loans.......fires......auto dealers.....SpaceX......government contracts.....NHTSA....fires....the car is great, but can they make it affordable......fires......".

Oh, and "......Paypal.......Solar City.......government subsidies.....".

Here's to hoping I'm wrong.

 

[austinEV]

So this is the long-awaited NHTSA clearance? This is a real whimper... I had called for a bigger reaction to this. Maybe clearance was truly priced in, or is this muted reaction due to the fact that they are in fact incurring a cost for these shields?

 

[FANGO]

So this is the long-awaited NHTSA clearance? This is a real whimper... I had called for a bigger reaction to this. Maybe clearance was truly priced in, or is this muted reaction due to the fact that they are in fact incurring a cost for these shields?

I was thinking we'd see somewhere on the order of 5%, but maybe the cost of the fix and also that we've been dropping so much recently muted that slightly. This seems about what I figured would happen, which is why I'm glad I didn't play it. Still probly a good time to get in for the medium to long term right now, i guess.