Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[Papafox]

Is anyone aware of a live video feed link to the Hawthorne event, yet?

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If Tesla follows their own history... We will get the Beta Model X reveal, then the Model 3 prototype... Not the other way around. So I would agree Model 3 is unlikely at this point, but will likely come within the next few months. Maybe even before the Model X is fully released. Note that they showed the Model X before the first delivery of the Model S happened and that turned out OK. If the Model 3 is a mid-sized sedan, I would suggest that it will have almost no impact on a large CUV... two totally different target audiences.

I would be more worried about the Model 3 canibalizing potential Model S sales than anything, but everyone knows that the Model 3 is coming, so if they have decided to get an S today, then any news about a Model 3 happening in 3 years won't affect their decision to buy today. Any potential "lost" sales due to a concept release would be made up by increased brand recognition and news stories by people who can not only afford a Model S/X but would actually go and buy one.

Keep in mind that there are still so many people here in the US who have never even heard of Tesla, many who have maybe heard about it, but never seen one and don't even think you can get one. So better awareness about the company all around will only serve to increase sales as they get more market penetration.

Chickensevil, I agree with you that a Model X unveiling is more probable than a Model 3 debut. The main point I'm making is that the potential exists for the stock to do very well the next day. Active traders and less active traders may play this event differently. The risk involved in Thursday's event is lighter for long-term investors than for active traders if both are fairly heavy in stock holdings on the night of the event. A "miss" for long-term, less-active traders means a wait of a few more months before the models are revealed and the inevitable upward movement in stock prices takes place.

 

[pz1975]

Can someone explain why the simple reveal of the Model X is expected to increase share price on its own? The idea of a Model X is a known entity and its actual existence should be entirely baked in by now. Unless it has amazing features that are unexpected or demand numbers are given at the time of the reveal, I just don't see why it will increase share price significantly (a small bump due to increased interest but no major spike). If it wins major awards and/or high demand or numbers are announced then the stock price should react.

I would like to see a major jump when it gets revealed but I don't see the rationale as everyone knows it will get revealed eventually and will have certain known features - AWD, falcon wing doors, etc. Please educate me.

 

[mynameisjim]

I think some investors are just looking for an excuse to buy. This event might just be the right excuse.

 

[Larken]

Can someone explain why the simple reveal of the Model X is expected to increase share price on its own? The idea of a Model X is a known entity and its actual existence should be entirely baked in by now. Unless it has amazing features that are unexpected or demand numbers are given at the time of the reveal, I just don't see why it will increase share price significantly (a small bump due to increased interest but no major spike). If it wins major awards and/or high demand or numbers are announced then the stock price should react.

I would like to see a major jump when it gets revealed but I don't see the rationale as everyone knows it will get revealed eventually and will have certain known features - AWD, falcon wing doors, etc. Please educate me.

Perhaps the share price will get bumped on unveiling the Model X for the simple reason that the public/investors at large will see that Tesla Motors is progressing and everything is on schedule. When it comes to TSLA, the investing community (besides us at TMC) might not be that convinced about Teslas great future and this event might just cement that even more. Also I'm sure the Beta prototype, whenever unveiled, will be breathtakingly amazing.

 

[ggr]

Perhaps the share price will get bumped on unveiling the Model X for the simple reason that the public/investors at large will see that Tesla Motors is progressing and everything is on schedule. When it comes to TSLA, the investing community (besides us at TMC) might not be that convinced about Teslas great future and this event might just cement that even more. Also I'm sure the Beta prototype, whenever unveiled, will be breathtakingly amazing.

Well, it might or might not be amazing, but I don't think that's the important thing. At this point the Model X should have already been shipping according to the timelines from a while ago. Showing a Beta should reinforce that there is a real car there, and it will start to ship soon. This is an important message.

 

[FluxCap]

Anyone trading the event with a particular strategy? I'm considering a strangle.

 

[austinEV]

Anyone trading the event with a particular strategy? I'm considering a strangle.

I think that is a wise move. Personally I have some OTM lottery tickets that I fully plan to lose my money on. 280 and 290 for this Friday.

 

[InTheShadows]

Anyone trading the event with a particular strategy? I'm considering a strangle.

I'm thinking the same thing only slightly modified. Buying calls to puts at a 2:1 ratio.

 

[ckessel]

So we had a low point of ~180 in May and a new ATH of ~285 recently. If it gives back 50% of the gains again, we'd be looking for ~235.

I'm curious to see if this 50% of the gains pullback off an ATH holds true a 3rd time straight.

Well, so far, the pattern held up a 3rd time. We hit around $236 a week ago and bounced off it pretty well.

 

[Maknyuzz]

Potential additional revenue imo: Tesla release apparel product with Model S silhouette, with the text "Unveil the D" I bet most Tesla fans would buy that. I would..

 

[Wenche]

I still hold my core stocks, and I'm fully loaded (still some use of margin) with Jan 16 calls from really DIM, to some more risky ones. I do hope for a Beta X to roll in as "something else". I think more than 20 000 reservation holders are impatient to see the X, and when they finally see it, I believe they will buy more stocks. It will also strengthen my own belief, too keep my money in TSLA.
Something else; I got the EU Model X Signature #573 this morning :smile:

 

[MSMX2014]

I think we see the AWD MS, AWD MX, possibly a more powerful battery option and a live streaming demo of future driver assist technology to come. Maybe they'll use the airport in some way to show the demo. Something like the battery swap event. I doubt we'll see the M3 car since it is still too far away and wouldn't make sense. I'm an MS P85+ owner and MX reservation holder and was invited to attend. I'll be there.

 

[aznt1217]

I need a stream of this lol

 

[Zaxxon]

No X reveal tomorrow, per a Vanity Fair Elon interview clip released today. On phone or I would link it.

 

[vgrinshpun]

No X reveal tomorrow, per a Vanity Fair Elon interview clip released today. On phone or I would link it.

Elon Musk Hints at Plans to - YouTube

 

[Zaxxon]

Thanks.

 

[ckessel]

No X reveal tomorrow, per a Vanity Fair Elon interview clip released today. On phone or I would link it.

He says the internet has "guessed the direction, but not the magnitude", which leads me to believe it's basically announcing a super car. Whoopee.

Curious what the something else is. Elon said giving the letter would make it too obvious.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

He says the internet has "guessed the direction, but not the magnitude", which leads me to believe it's basically announcing a super car.

I think that Elon meant some kind of fundamental shift in the way people drive, or a feature that people have guessed, but really underestimate the long-term implications.

This will either be a WOW! moment, or few will understand and many will be confused.

 

[chickensevil]

Based on what we all think we know about what is coming, it was too risky for my November options that were doing really great, so I bailed on them today, but I have set up a healthy straddle of basically pennies to play tomorrow if we go up or down. My biggest risk is that the people that have been forcing the stock to close around 260 all week are going to decide to bail out of their game and let the stock do something tomorrow. But there is too much of a downside risk that I had to take those November options off the table. (I made like 160% on one, and 130% on the other, so not too shabby).

My current setup has the 292.50 contracts I bought early in the week, these are almost definately going to lose all the money I put in them. and then Today I did a 245/277.50 straddle that favors upside. I really think tomorrow is going to move heavily in one direction or the other. So we will see what happens. If all of this becomes worthless then overall I still make out pretty good for the week. If the stock moves heavily one way I will also be pretty happy

My only regret on all of this, is I sort wish I would have done the straddle on next week's options instead of this week, just so if the stock goes flat I could have recovered some cash instead of going totally worthless, but I am still happy with where I sit I think.

 

[InTheShadows]

I don't know but the protective puts I bought this morning might get sold soon. They are up 150%. If I do I'll buy the same amount a few strikes lower. That will pay for the wild card through the roof calls I bought for tonight's event if it's out of the park awesome.